Update on Nifty levels of the day 25th May 2017

Nifty 9,360 /Sensex 30,301 / Bank Nifty 22,536

14 Advances / 37 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Indian benchmarks pare all gains to end lower ahead of May series F&O expiry

Indian benchmark indices ended the session on a negative note, dragged by fall in midcaps as well as escalating cross border tensions. Pakistani fighter jets flew near the Siachen Glacier today, according to a media report, but Indian Air Force sources said there was no violation of India's air space. Also, Pakistan's Air Force chief warned that his forces will respond to any aggression by the enemy in a manner that their future generations will also remember it. The optimism in domestic markets petered out completely by the end of trade and the benchmarks even drifted in to the negative territory as investors turned cautious ahead of the F&O expiry of May series due tomorrow. Market participants also awaited the minutes of US Federal Reserve's May policy meeting due later in the day for clues about its next interest rate hike.

Sentiments remained dismal on the report that weak investment activity, as reflected in the slow output growth in capital goods and infrastructure, is likely to depress Indian gross value added (GVA) growth to around 6.6 per cent in the fourth quarter ended March.  The report also indicated that the transition to Goods and Services Tax (GST) is also likely to create some disruption and impact the short-term sales volume across businesses. However, losses remained capped with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's statement that our aim is that India must be an engine of growth as well as an example in climate friendly development in the years to come.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday after the Trump administration unveiled its first budget proposal as a 'taxpayer first' plan that makes deep cuts to a number of programs while rising spending on border security and defense. Japanese shares rose notably to hit a one-week high, as weaker yen against dollar lifts mood. The dollar held firm, having rebounded from 6-1/2-month lows against its major peers thanks to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with investor focus now turning towards the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Further, Chinese shares rose in the final minutes of trading, erasing losses spurred by Moody's cut its sovereign credit rating on China. Meanwhile, European Markets were ricocheting between positive and negative territory in early trade, as weakness in mining and autos sectors were offset by strength in oil producers. Investors remained cautious after British Prime Minister Theresa May said the UK has raised the threat level to maximum and the government was preparing to send soldiers on to streets as a second terror attack may be imminent after the Manchester pop concert bombing.

Back home, after getting a positive start, the local benchmarks showed some strength in morning trades, but the sentiments turned pessimistic in afternoon trades and index start drifting lower. Finally, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, suffered a moderate cut of quarter percent to settle below the crucial 9,400 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index-Sensex- slipped around sixty-three points and closed just above the psychological 30,300 mark. On the BSE sectoral space, Capital Goods index remained the top laggard in the space and settled with over two and half percent laceration followed by the Telecom, Metal and Healthcare pockets, which went home with around two percent cuts. However, the high beta Oil & Gas along with Auto counters remained the only gainers in the space.

FII’s Activity 24-May-17

The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5782.50 crore against gross selling of Rs 6148.58 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 366.08 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2182.63 crore with gross sales of Rs 533.22 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1649.41 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9350---9325 and Resistance at 9456.

Below 9325 will see further downside panic till 9280---9245 mark else it could test its resistance level of 9416---9456 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Results Today

Bosch Limited

PC Jeweller Limited

Page Industries Limited

NMDC Limited

Indian Oil Corporation Limited

Container Corporation of India Limited

BEML Limited

Cipla Limited

Balkrishna Industries Limited

Ashok Leyland Limited

Britannia Industries Limited

More will update soon!!

Read More

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 24th May 17

Gold futures ended lower on Tuesday as the US dollar rebounded from 6-1/2-month lows and investors shrugged off heightened political risk following a deadly suicide attack in Britain. The blast at a concert hall in Manchester, which killed at least 22 people, prompted the US dollar to gain against sterling but failed to move gold higher. Meanwhile, the precious-metals market will also look for clues on the timing for US interest rate increases from the release Wednesday of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s early-May meeting.

Crude oil futures moved further high and reached a five-week high on Tuesday, ahead of US inventories data that may show stockpiles continued to dwindle from record levels. Traders overlooked the Goldman Sachs report downgrading the energy sector amid concerns that rig count growth will "flatten out" over the next few years. However, there was some concern too ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum and Exporting Countries meeting later this week. As, Kuwaiti Oil Minister Issam Almarzooq said some countries are not in favour of a nine-month extension, but there’s a preliminary agreement on a six-month deal that will be reviewed in November.

Copper futures ended flat on Tuesday, followed by reports that copper imports in China dropped 41 percent, partly due to tighter credit. Furthermore, a terrorist attack in the UK city of Manchester too reduced global risk appetite.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28500 and Resistance at 28900

Trend looks weak and could touch its support level of 28500, break and sustain below 28500 will take it to 28350---28200 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 28900 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 28900.

Silver

Support at 39350 and Resistance at 40000

Break and sustain below 39350 will take it to 39000---38700 mark else could touch its resistance level of 40000 again.

Trade with levels only.

Crude 

Support at 3330 and Resistance at 3380

Break and sustain below 3330 will take it to 3280---3250 and then to 3200 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 3380 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3380 mark.

Natural Gas

Support at 208 and Resistance at 215.50

Break and sustain below 208 will take it to 201—196 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 215.50 

Fresh buying can be initiated above 215.50

Copper 

Support at 367 and Resistance at 375

Break and sustain below 367 will take it to 363—361 and then to 356 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 375 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 375 only.

Economic Data

07:30 P.M Existing Home Sales Home Sales m/m:  Previous 5.71M, Forecast 5.65M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Existing Home Sales Home Sales m/m - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

08:00 P.M Crude Oil Inventories:  Previous -1.8M, Forecast -2.4M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Crude Oil Inventories – will have negative impact on crude oil prices vice versa

11:30 P.M FOMC Meeting Minutes

More will update soon!!

Read More

Currency Report 24th May 2017

Rupee strengthens on fresh selling of American currency by banks and exporters

Indian rupee strengthened against the US dollar on Wednesday on account of fresh selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Further, firm domestic equity market also supported the rupee but the dollar’s strength against some currencies overseas, capped the rupee’s gain. On the global front, the dollar held firm on Wednesday, having rebounded from 6-1/2-month lows against its major peers helped by a rise in US Treasury yields, while the yuan eased after Moody's cut its sovereign rating on China due to concerns over the country's soaring debt.

USDINR (May)

Support at 64.50 and Resistance at 65.10

Break and sustain above 65.10 will take it to 65.50—65.80 mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 64.50 again.

Trade with levels only

GBPINR

Support at 83.50 and Resistance at 84.70

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

EURINR

Hurdle at 73.10 and Support at 72.45

Break and sustain below 72.45 will take it to 72.10---71.80 mark in days to come.

Fresh buying only above 73.10

JPYINR

Support intact at 57.90. Break and close below 57.90 will take to 57.60---57.30 mark

Hurdle intact at 58.25

More will update soon!!

Read More

Agro Commodity Update (24-May-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean futures traded lower on NCDEX as speculators trimmed their positions due to reports of higher stocks of soybean with farmers and traders. Soybean prices also dropped by lower demand in spot markets as 60% of soybean mills in Madhya Pradesh reported to have shut down because of subdued demand for soymeal and lower prices of soy oil. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during the first 20 days of May marked lower as compared to the last month same period. During the month of May, the arrivals have been noted at 1.64 lt as compared with 1.88 lt recorded in the preceding month. India's oilseeds industry body has cut its soymeal export forecast by 25% from its previous outlook on appreciating rupee and a correction in global prices make Indian supplies uncompetitive. India may export 1.5 MT of soymeal during the MY 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) lower from 2 MT expected in the beginning of the season.

CPO future traded moderately lower tracking weak cues in the international market. The government increases the base import prices of Crude palm oil by $9/tonne and RBD by $6/tonne for 2nd half of May. As per SEA, During Nov ‘16 – Apr’17 import of palm oil decreased to 43 lt from 43.4 lt during the same period of last year. The overall stock of edible oil as on 1st May, 2017 has increased by 207,000 tonnes to 212 lakh tonnes as compared to stocks on 1st Apr., 2017. 

Cotton futures traded marginally lower from last couple of days as kharif planting of cotton in the country begin on good note. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 8.93 lakh hectares as on 19th May, higher by 32% compared to last year acreage for same period. Cotton planting initiates in the northern Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan in early May. Moreover, there are ample supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers. USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017-18 at 6.01 MT, up nearly 6% while area is forecast at 11.5 mhac, up 10% from last year.

Turmeric future traded lower on supply pressure and profit booking by the market participants. There is stable demand in the physical market against higher stock levels. As per the trader source, turmeric arrivals in the country marked lower in the first 20 days of May at 46,168 tonnes as compared with 96,995 tonnes noted during April (1-20).The lower arrivals are due to poor realization by the farmers. On the export front, country exported about 97,596 tonnes during April-Feb period, up by 26.6% compared to last year exports of 77,087 tonnes. Market participants are expecting of demand may take place in near term due to lowering prices which may limit the loss of its price.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

As expected weak below 2790 it’s made a low of 2752 today.

Now support seen at 2750 and resistance at 2810

Looks weak and close below 2750 will take it to 2705 and then to 2660 mark else it could test its resistance level of 2810 again.

Further upside rally will see only weekly close above 2810 mark.

Trade with levels only

Soyref

Support at 632---628 and Resistance 641

Looks weak and close below 632 will take it to 628 and then to 622 mark else it could test its resistance level of 641 again.

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 641 only.

Trade with levels only

Jeera 

Support at 17800 and resistance at 18400.

Close below 17800 will see further downside panic till 17350---17050 else it could touch its resistance level of 18400 again.

Trend- Sideways 

RM Seed 

We are in bearish mode from 3700 and it touched a fresh low of 3546 today.

Close below 3540 will take it to 3480---3450 mark else could touch its resistance of 3650 again

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 3650 mark.

Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at lower levels.

Turmeric

Our sell call from 5600 to 5380 proven great.

Now what to expect???

Looks weak and close below 5400 will take it to 5320---5250 mark else could touch its resistance level of 5600

Fresh buying only can be seen above 5600 mark.

Trade with levels only

Cocudakl (June)

Support seen at 1870 and resistance is at 1920

Looks weak and close below 1870 will take it to 1845---1820 mark else it may test its resistance of 1920 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 1920.

Trend- Sideways Lower

Mentha oil (May)

Support at 915 and resistance at 968

Looks weak and close below 915 will take to 890---875 mark else it could test its resistance level of 968 again.

Buying only can be seen above 968 mark.

Trade with levels only

CPO (May)

Support is 522 and resistance is 526.

Close below 522 will see more downside panic till 518---515 mark else it could test it's resistance of 526 again.

Fresh buying only can be seen above 526.

Trade with levels only.

More will update soon!!

Read More

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 24th May 2017

Nifty 9,386 /Sensex 30,365 / Bank Nifty 22,652

18 Advances / 33 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Feeble global cues drag benchmarks lower; Nifty ends below 9400 mark

Indian benchmark indices failed to extend the gains on Tuesday as jittery investors chose to take profits off the table amid weak global cues. An explosion struck an Ariana Grande concert in northern England late yesterday, killing at least 19 people and injuring dozens. Britain’s terrorist threat level has been set at ‘severe’ in recent years, indicating an attack is highly likely.  The sentiment was also dragged down by geopolitical tensions as Indian army strikes Pakistan military posts. Indian Army spokesperson Major General Ashok Narula said Pakistan Army has been supporting armed infiltration in Kashmir and targeted attacks have been carried out to put an end to such activities. Sentiments also remained dismal with India Ratings and Research’s (Ind-Ra) latest report indicating that Goods & Service Tax (GST) implementation will affect the working capital cycle of business in the initial phase owing to the lock up of input credit. It noted that easy liquidity in the system is essential to minimize the magnitude of such disruption at the earliest and to absorb the sudden changes in requirement of short term finance. Furthermore, with the prices of crude oil starting to recover, investors remained concerned over the report that India’s petroleum self-sufficiency fell to 17.9% in 2016-17, its lowest annual level since 2011. The self-sufficiency percentage is calculated by using the total production from Indigenous Crude & Condensate and the total petroleum consumption of the country. For the month of April, this percentage fell further to 16.6%, lower from 17.9% seen for the month of April 2016. India’s fast-growing demand for petroleum products has been the significant contributor to the fall in its self-sufficiency in meeting these demands. Investors failed to get any sense of relief with a new survey by the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) and Indian Bank’s Association (IBA) showing that the outlook towards the financial condition of the country has taken a positive turn during the first quarter of the ongoing fiscal. The CII-IBA Financial Conditions Index stood at 56.9 for first quarter of 2017-18, as compared to 48 during the previous quarter. 

On the global front, Asian markets ended mixed on Tuesday as investors digested news of a terrorist attack in Manchester, northern England, and fresh revelations provided additional evidence that the White House actively sought to undermine the FBI investigation into Russia.  Japanese market failed to get any sense of relief from healthy exports data and ended lower.  Japan's exports rose in April to mark their fifth straight month of gains, as shipments of semiconductors and steel expanded, signaling that more robust overseas demand could underpin a steady economic recovery. Exports rose 7.5% in April from a year ago, below the median estimate of 7.8% annual growth. It followed a 12.0% rise in March. Meanwhile, oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump proposed the sale of half of the country’s strategic oil reserves in his budget plan, just as producer club OPEC and its allies are cut back output to tighten the market.

Back home, after getting a cautious start, the local benchmarks plunged below their psychological levels 30,450 (Sensex) and 9400 (Nifty) respectively in early trade as funds and retail investors engaged in reducing positions amid weak global cues. Thereafter, the indices traded in tight range throughout the morning trade and witnessed a good recovery in early afternoon session, tracking positive opening of European Markets. However, the key gauges suffered a setback in final hour of trades as sudden bouts of profit booking emerged in the local markets. Finally, the NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, slipped by over half a percent to settle below the crucial 9,400 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index Sensex deposed over two hundred points and closed below the psychological 30,400 mark. Moreover, the broader markets had to bear a brutal assault as they went on to underperform their larger peers by quite a margin with BSE’s midcap shaving off 1.56% and BSE’s small cap shelving  1.89%.

FII’s Activity 23-May-17

The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5360.40 crore against gross selling of Rs 4465.52 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 894.88 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 807.56 crore with gross sales of Rs 114.54 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 693.02 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9363---9345 and Resistance at 9456.

Below 9345 will see further downside panic till 9313---9284 mark else it could test its resistance level of 9417---9456 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 22232 and resistance at 22853

Below 22469 will see further downside panic till 22413---22356---22232 mark. More downside panic will see only close below 22232 level else it could test its resistance level of 22718---22853 again.

Today's Top Pick

JK Lakshmi Cement

Support at 470 and Resistance at 489

Above 489 will see upside rally till 500---515+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 470

Results Today

Dish TV India Limited

Kaveri Seed Company Limited

Jain Irrigation Systems Limited

Lupin Limited

Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited

Adani Enterprises Limited

Bharat Forge Limited

Amara Raja Batteries Limited

More will update soon!!

Read More