Fundamental Aspect
Soybean futures traded lower on NCDEX as speculators trimmed their positions due to reports of higher stocks of soybean with farmers and traders. Soybean prices also dropped by lower demand in spot markets as 60% of soybean mills in Madhya Pradesh reported to have shut down because of subdued demand for soymeal and lower prices of soy oil. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during the first 20 days of May marked lower as compared to the last month same period. During the month of May, the arrivals have been noted at 1.64 lt as compared with 1.88 lt recorded in the preceding month. India's oilseeds industry body has cut its soymeal export forecast by 25% from its previous outlook on appreciating rupee and a correction in global prices make Indian supplies uncompetitive. India may export 1.5 MT of soymeal during the MY 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) lower from 2 MT expected in the beginning of the season.
CPO future traded moderately lower tracking weak cues in the international market. The government increases the base import prices of Crude palm oil by $9/tonne and RBD by $6/tonne for 2nd half of May. As per SEA, During Nov ‘16 – Apr’17 import of palm oil decreased to 43 lt from 43.4 lt during the same period of last year. The overall stock of edible oil as on 1st May, 2017 has increased by 207,000 tonnes to 212 lakh tonnes as compared to stocks on 1st Apr., 2017.
Cotton futures traded marginally lower from last couple of days as kharif planting of cotton in the country begin on good note. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 8.93 lakh hectares as on 19th May, higher by 32% compared to last year acreage for same period. Cotton planting initiates in the northern Indian states of Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan in early May. Moreover, there are ample supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers. USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017-18 at 6.01 MT, up nearly 6% while area is forecast at 11.5 mhac, up 10% from last year.
Turmeric future traded lower on supply pressure and profit booking by the market participants. There is stable demand in the physical market against higher stock levels. As per the trader source, turmeric arrivals in the country marked lower in the first 20 days of May at 46,168 tonnes as compared with 96,995 tonnes noted during April (1-20).The lower arrivals are due to poor realization by the farmers. On the export front, country exported about 97,596 tonnes during April-Feb period, up by 26.6% compared to last year exports of 77,087 tonnes. Market participants are expecting of demand may take place in near term due to lowering prices which may limit the loss of its price.
Technical Aspect: (June Contract)
Soybean
As expected weak below 2790 it’s made a low of 2752 today.
Now support seen at 2750 and resistance at 2810
Looks weak and close below 2750 will take it to 2705 and then to 2660 mark else it could test its resistance level of 2810 again.
Further upside rally will see only weekly close above 2810 mark.
Trade with levels only
Soyref
Support at 632---628 and Resistance 641
Looks weak and close below 632 will take it to 628 and then to 622 mark else it could test its resistance level of 641 again.
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 641 only.
Trade with levels only
Jeera
Support at 17800 and resistance at 18400.
Close below 17800 will see further downside panic till 17350---17050 else it could touch its resistance level of 18400 again.
Trend- Sideways
RM Seed
We are in bearish mode from 3700 and it touched a fresh low of 3546 today.
Close below 3540 will take it to 3480---3450 mark else could touch its resistance of 3650 again
Fresh buying can be initiated only above 3650 mark.
Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at lower levels.
Turmeric
Our sell call from 5600 to 5380 proven great.
Now what to expect???
Looks weak and close below 5400 will take it to 5320---5250 mark else could touch its resistance level of 5600
Fresh buying only can be seen above 5600 mark.
Trade with levels only
Cocudakl (June)
Support seen at 1870 and resistance is at 1920
Looks weak and close below 1870 will take it to 1845---1820 mark else it may test its resistance of 1920 again.
Fresh buying can be initiated only above 1920.
Trend- Sideways Lower
Mentha oil (May)
Support at 915 and resistance at 968
Looks weak and close below 915 will take to 890---875 mark else it could test its resistance level of 968 again.
Buying only can be seen above 968 mark.
Trade with levels only
CPO (May)
Support is 522 and resistance is 526.
Close below 522 will see more downside panic till 518---515 mark else it could test it's resistance of 526 again.
Fresh buying only can be seen above 526.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
