Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 23rd May 2017

Nifty 9,438 /Sensex 30,570 / Bank Nifty 22,652

19 Advances / 32 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Indian benchmarks settle with modest gain

Monday's trading session was clearly of consolidation as the Indian benchmark indices appeared a bit fatigued and remained in tight range for most part of the day. Sentiments got some support after the government last week finalized rates for the upcoming goods and services tax (GST). The government on Friday unveiled four bands of rates under the GST for services in line with those applying to goods, a big departure from the current single rate of 15% applied on most services. Adding the optimism of investors, Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia said Inflation will fall by 2% on implementation of the GST and create buoyancy in the economy. With the stage set for the biggest overhaul of India's tax system since Independence, the government will launch a massive awareness campaign to educate consumers about GST so that they are not fleeced by traders in the name of new tax. Some support also came after Maharashtra Assembly passed the GST Bill in today's session of its lower house. GST, which will come in force from July 1, will unify the country's economy into a common market and eliminate a string of central and state levies. The act is significant as the BMC gets a considerable share of its revenue through octroi, which will now be scrapped with the introduction of the GST regime.  Meanwhile, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows into the country touched a new high of $60.08 billion in 2016-17. FDI Inflows grew by 8% over the previous high of $55.6 billion posted in 2015-16. Increased FDI inflows in the country are largely attributed to intense and bold policy reforms the government undertook to bring pragmatism in the FDI regime.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly higher on Monday as the Japanese yen weakened and US crude futures climbed back above $50 per barrel on expectations that major oil producing nations might extend their production cuts beyond an agreed-on June deadline when they meet on May 25. Investors shrugged off a weekend missile test by North Korea that raised further concerns on its ability to deliver a nuclear warhead as far as the US states of Hawaii and Alaska. Chinese shares ended lower as worries over slowing economic growth and tighter regulations continued to haunt investors.

Back home, after getting a firm start, the local benchmarks traded in a tight range, above the neutral line, for most part of the session and ended the day with marginal gains.  The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty settled with modest gains of ten points above the psychological 9,400 levels, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index - Sensex gained over quarter percent and closed above the psychological 30,500 mark. However, the broader markets failed to show any kind of fervor and closed with losses of over a percent. The market breadth remained pessimistic, as there were 877 shares on the gaining side against 1844 shares on the losing side, while 190 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 22-May-17

The FIIs as per Monday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 8772.35 crore against gross selling of Rs 5599.70 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 3172.65 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1148.66 crore with gross sales of Rs 469.77 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 678.89 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Yesterday we have seen Nifty consolidate on day one of expiry week

Now what to expect???

Support at 9350 and Resistance at 9550.

Below 9425 will see further downside panic till 9380---9350 mark. More downside panic will see only close below 9350 level only else it could test its resistance level of 9480---9550 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 22356 and resistance at 23177

Below 22631 will see further downside panic till 22562---22493---22356 mark. More downside panic will see only close below 22356 level else it could test its resistance level of 22972---23177 again.

Today's Top Pick

IOC

Support at 423 and Resistance at 433

Break and sustain below 423 wil l take to 415---407 mark.

Looks strong only if it close above 433 mark

Results Today

Jindal Steel & Power Limited

Voltas Limited

Torrent Power Limited

Tata Motors Limited

NCC Limited

More will update soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 22nd May 17

Gold futures edged lower on Monday as Donald Trump's first visits abroad as president were in focus with a flurry of deals signed in Saudi Arabia in the first stop and with investors shrugging off the latest missile test by North Korea at the weekend. In the week ahead, investors will be looking at Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting minutes for fresh indications on the possible timing of the next US rate hike. Revised data on US first quarter growth and private sector survey data out of the euro zone will also be in focus.

Crude oil futures traded higher on MCX as investors and speculators extended their positions in the energy commodity amid expectations that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other producers, including Russia, likely to extend production cut until March 2018. Traders are expecting that the output cut extension will be discussed in the meeting of OPEC and its allies in Vienna on Thursday.

Copper futures edged higher on MCX despite a weak trend in base metals at spot markets on muted demand from consuming industries.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28500 and Resistance at 28900

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 28750---28900. Further upside rally will see on close above 28900 mark else could touch its support level of 28500 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 28500

Silver

Above 39400 rally remain continue till 39700—40000 and then to 40300 mark in days to come.

Support intact at 38900

Crude (June)

Support at 3250 and Resistance at 3330

Break and sustain above 3330 will take it to 3380—3420 and then to 3480+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3250 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3250 mark.

Natural Gas

Support at 208 and Resistance at 220

Trend looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 220.

Fresh selling can be initiated below only 208 mark. 

Copper

Support at 367.50 and Resistance at 371

Above 371 will take it to 375—378 and then to 385+++ mark in days to come else it could touch its support level of  367.50 again.

362 act as major support in Copper.

More will update soon!!

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Agri Commodity Update (22-May-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Jeera futures traded in a tight range with a lower bias in last week. The arrivals have now slowed down in the physical market. As per the trader source, about 6,725 tonnes of Jeera arrived in May (1-20) compared to 26,151 in April (1-20). On the export front, country the exports increase by 29.6% to 1, 08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of MY 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of commerce, GOI. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse is about 2,092 tonnes, higher by 117% as compared to stocks on 1st May. The stocks were only 964 tonnes in the beginning of the month.

Sugar futures likely to trade sideways on the back of mixed fundamentals of higher supplies and improvement in physical demand from industrial buyers. There are reports of rebound in sugarcane production over the next year due to higher acreage. As per the USDA report, India’s sugar production is forecast to rebound by 18% to 25.8 MT due to higher area and yields. Imports are forecast lower while, consumption is forecast to edge higher to 26.0 MT. Maharashtra government seeks differential pricing for sugar where industrial buyers have to pay more while retail consumer pays less. Moreover, government extends curbs on holding of sugar stocks by six months for the sugar dealers and traders.

Cardamom futures traded marginally lower as investors cut down their bets amid fall in physical demand for cardamom in the domestic spot market. Further, sufficient supplies on higher physical arrivals from the major cardamom producing regions too fuelled the downtrend.

Cotton futures traded under pressure tracking weak cues from International counter. There are sufficient supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers. As per the trader source, India’s cotton imports have touched an all-time high of 30 lakh bales this season. USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017-18 at 6.01 MT, up nearly 6% while area is forecast at 11.5 Mhac, up 10% from last year. The domestic cotton arrivals in April are higher by 49% on year at 2.64 lakh tonnes as compared with 1.77 lakh tonnes last year.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Support seen at 2790---2760 and resistance at 2870

Looks dead cat bounce here and close above 2870 will take it to 2910 and then to 2950---3020 mark else it could test its support level of 2790---2760 again.

Further downside rally will see only weekly close below 2760 mark.

Trade with levels only

Soyref

We continued bullish from 618 and it touched a fresh high of 640 today

What to expect???

Support at 628 and Resistance 645

Look positive and could test 645. Close above 645 will take it to 654---657 mark

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 628 only.

Trade with levels only

Jeera 

Support at 17800 and resistance at 18400.

Close below 17800 will see further downside panic till 17350---17050 else it could touch its resistance level of 18400 again.

Trend- Sideways 

RM Seed

We are in bearish mode from 3700 and it touched a fresh low of 3660 today.

Now Support at 3650 and resistance is 3720

Close below 3650 will take it to 3620---3580 and then 3550 mark else could touch its resistance of 3720 again

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 3720 mark.

Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at lower levels.

Turmeric

Crucial support at 5550---5430 and resistance is 5900.

Looks sideways higher and every decline till 5550 will be buying opportunity.

Fresh selling only can be seen below 5430 mark.

So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Only trade with levels.

Cocudakl (June)

Support seen at 1910 and resistance is at 1990.

Looks sideways and close above 1990 will take to 2060---2125 mark else it may test its support of 1910 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated only close below 1910.

Trend- Sideways 

Mentha oil (May)

Our sell call of Months oil from 654 proven great. 

Now what to expect???

Support at 900 and resistance at 945

Looks weak and close below 900 will take to 880---865 mark else it could test its resistance level of 945 again.

Buying only can be seen above 945 mark.

Trade with levels only

CPO (May)

We are highly bullish from 505 to 545 and touched a high of 524 today.

Now what to expect???

Support is 510 and resistance is 524---532---545.

Close above 524 will see more upside rally till 529---532 and then to 545 mark in days to come.

Trade with levels only.

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 22nd May 2017

Rupee strengthens on selling of American currency by banks and exporters

Indian rupee strengthened against US dollar on Monday on account of selling of the American currency by banks and exporters. Further, domestic stock markets opened on a firm note buoyed by the positive openings of the Asian markets too supported the rupee. On the global front, the dollar struggled to push ahead on Monday, holding near six-month lows against a basket of currencies as investors assessed the impact of US political turmoil and a resurgent euro.

USDINR 

Support at 64.35 and Resistance at 65.10

Break and sustain below 64.35 will take it to 64.00—63.90 and then to 63.60 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 65.10 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 65.10 mark.

GBPINR

Support at 83.50 and Resistance at 84.70

Close below 83.50 will take it to 83.00---82.80 and then to 82.30 mark else could touch its resistance level of 84.55---84.70 mark again.

Further upside rally will see above 84.70 mark.

Trade with levels only

EURINR

Above 72.50 it can touch 72.80—73.00 and then to 73.50+++ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 71.90---71.50 again.

Fresh selling can do only close below 71.50 mark.

JPYINR

We have seen mindblowing rally in JPYINR from 57.00---58.9150.

Now what to expect???

Still looks positive and could test 58.80---59.20 and then to 60.30 mark

Immediate support intact at 57.50--57.20 while major support intact at 56.50.

Traders can buy in panic near to its support with strict stop loss below 56.50 on closing basis.

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels and Bank Nifty levels 22nd May 2017

Nifty 9,427 /Sensex 30,464 / Bank Nifty 22,769

19 Advances / 32 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

* Indian benchmarks erase early gains to close flat*

Indian equity indices scuttled between gains and losses to finally settle the day on flat note as 2-day GST Council meet ended where rates for various goods and services were decided.  According to many experts, the multi-tiered GST may not be inflationary as far as goods are concerned as 81% of them will be taxed at 18% or less with mass-consumption items at the lower end of the bands. Items like milk, fruit and vegetables, jaggery, food grain and cereals getting exemption from GST, while items like sugar, tea, coffee, edible oil, mithai, and newsprint will attract the lowest GST of 5%. However, those who were planning to buy a new car could be forced pay more after July 1 as most vehicles fall in the higher tax basket. Also, Motorcycles of more than 350 cc engine capacity will attract a total of 31% tax under the GST regime, same as the tax incidence on private aircraft and luxury yachts.  Some product like local made Mobiles phones might also get costlier, with the government imposing a 12% GST, taking away the benefit under duty differential that was being offered to local manufacturers.

The session largely remained characterized by choppiness as the aimless indices moved only sideways in a tight band as investors were evaluating the impact of GST on various product and services before adding new positions. The GST rates on telecom, financial services have been fixed at 18%, while healthcare and education were exempted from service tax. Decision is yet to be made on gold, silver and other goods. Adding to the optimism among investors, Union Minister Arjun Ram Meghwal said, the decision to implement GST from this July 1 is one of the important economic reforms and would be a major milestone in the growth of the country. He also said that demonetization had helped improve the GDP of the country despite apprehensions to the contrary from certain quarters, noting that the growth has gone up and would reach 10%. Meanwhile, Narendra Modi government has set an ambitious target of awarding Rs 5 lakh crore worth of highway contracts, totaling about 50,000 km, in the last two years of its tenure, surpassing the cumulative road length awarded for paying in the last five years.

On the global front, Asian equity markets ended mostly higher on Friday as better-than-expected US economic data and higher oil prices offset concerns surrounding deepening political turmoil in Washington and the Brazilian political crisis. The number of Americans on unemployment fell mid-May to the lowest level since 1988, underscoring the strongest labor market in years. So-called continuing claims, or the number of people collecting jobless benefits, fell by 22,000 to 1.9 million in early May. Further, Chinese shares were little changed, as soothing regulatory comments and the central bank's injection offset worries over tighter regulations and economic growth. Official data showed foreign direct investment into China decreased 4.3% from last year in April. Meanwhile, fears have been growing that given his political troubles Trump may run into difficulties in enacting tax cuts and other business-friendly policies.

Back home, after gap up opening, the local benchmarks showed some strength in early trades, but the sentiments turned pessimistic in late morning trade and indices started drifting lower, however the markets regained their momentum in the final hour of trade and finished the day on flat note. Finally, Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, Sensex gained around thirty points and closed above the psychological 30,400 mark, while the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty settled with modest cut of around two points below the psychological 9,450 levels. The broader markets underperformed their larger peers by quite a margin with BSE’s midcap shaving off 0.72% and BSE’s small cap shelving 0.88%. The market breadth remained pessimistic, as there were 957 shares on the gaining side against 1789 shares on the losing side, while 165 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 19-May-17

The FIIs as per Friday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5969.89 crore against gross selling of Rs 5610.17 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 359.72 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 927.57 crore with gross sales of Rs 368.26 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 559.31 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Levels

Yesterday we have seen bullish momentum in Nifty, surging to fresh highs. In the second half, this rally received a sudden jerk.

Now what to expect???

Support at 9350 and Resistance at 9550.

Below 9425 will see further downside panic till 9380---9350 mark. More downside panic will see only close below 9350 level only else it could test its resistance level of 9480---9550 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 22356 and resistance at 23177

Below 22631 will see further downside panic till 22562---22493---22356 mark. More downside panic will see only close below 22356 level else it could test its resistance level of 22972---23177 again.

Results Today

Bank of India

SRF Limited

Engineers India Limited

Godrej Industries Limited

GAIL (India) Limited

More will update soon!!

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