Fundamental Aspect
Jeera futures traded in a tight range with a lower bias in last week. The arrivals have now slowed down in the physical market. As per the trader source, about 6,725 tonnes of Jeera arrived in May (1-20) compared to 26,151 in April (1-20). On the export front, country the exports increase by 29.6% to 1, 08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of MY 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of commerce, GOI. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse is about 2,092 tonnes, higher by 117% as compared to stocks on 1st May. The stocks were only 964 tonnes in the beginning of the month.
Sugar futures likely to trade sideways on the back of mixed fundamentals of higher supplies and improvement in physical demand from industrial buyers. There are reports of rebound in sugarcane production over the next year due to higher acreage. As per the USDA report, India’s sugar production is forecast to rebound by 18% to 25.8 MT due to higher area and yields. Imports are forecast lower while, consumption is forecast to edge higher to 26.0 MT. Maharashtra government seeks differential pricing for sugar where industrial buyers have to pay more while retail consumer pays less. Moreover, government extends curbs on holding of sugar stocks by six months for the sugar dealers and traders.
Cardamom futures traded marginally lower as investors cut down their bets amid fall in physical demand for cardamom in the domestic spot market. Further, sufficient supplies on higher physical arrivals from the major cardamom producing regions too fuelled the downtrend.
Cotton futures traded under pressure tracking weak cues from International counter. There are sufficient supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers. As per the trader source, India’s cotton imports have touched an all-time high of 30 lakh bales this season. USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017-18 at 6.01 MT, up nearly 6% while area is forecast at 11.5 Mhac, up 10% from last year. The domestic cotton arrivals in April are higher by 49% on year at 2.64 lakh tonnes as compared with 1.77 lakh tonnes last year.
Technical Aspect: (June Contract)
Soybean
Support seen at 2790---2760 and resistance at 2870
Looks dead cat bounce here and close above 2870 will take it to 2910 and then to 2950---3020 mark else it could test its support level of 2790---2760 again.
Further downside rally will see only weekly close below 2760 mark.
Trade with levels only
Soyref
We continued bullish from 618 and it touched a fresh high of 640 today
What to expect???
Support at 628 and Resistance 645
Look positive and could test 645. Close above 645 will take it to 654---657 mark
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 628 only.
Trade with levels only
Jeera
Support at 17800 and resistance at 18400.
Close below 17800 will see further downside panic till 17350---17050 else it could touch its resistance level of 18400 again.
Trend- Sideways
RM Seed
We are in bearish mode from 3700 and it touched a fresh low of 3660 today.
Now Support at 3650 and resistance is 3720
Close below 3650 will take it to 3620---3580 and then 3550 mark else could touch its resistance of 3720 again
Fresh buying can be initiated only above 3720 mark.
Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at lower levels.
Turmeric
Crucial support at 5550---5430 and resistance is 5900.
Looks sideways higher and every decline till 5550 will be buying opportunity.
Fresh selling only can be seen below 5430 mark.
So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Only trade with levels.
Cocudakl (June)
Support seen at 1910 and resistance is at 1990.
Looks sideways and close above 1990 will take to 2060---2125 mark else it may test its support of 1910 again.
Fresh selling can be initiated only close below 1910.
Trend- Sideways
Mentha oil (May)
Our sell call of Months oil from 654 proven great.
Now what to expect???
Support at 900 and resistance at 945
Looks weak and close below 900 will take to 880---865 mark else it could test its resistance level of 945 again.
Buying only can be seen above 945 mark.
Trade with levels only
CPO (May)
We are highly bullish from 505 to 545 and touched a high of 524 today.
Now what to expect???
Support is 510 and resistance is 524---532---545.
Close above 524 will see more upside rally till 529---532 and then to 545 mark in days to come.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
