Agri Commodity Update (19-May-2017)

        

             

Fundamental Aspect

Despite higher stock in the country, Soybean futures gained near 1% tracking progressive cues from International prices .As per the report of SOPA, about 54 lakh tonnes of soybean has been crushed and estimate of 46 lakh tonnes of soybean is available in the country. In crop year 2016-17 till end of April about 59 lakh tonnes of soybean arrived as compared with 58 lakh tonnes marked in last year. Physical demand has been steady as 60% of soybean mills in Madhya Pradesh reported to have shut down because of subdued demand for soymeal and lower prices of soy oil. IMD forecast for near normal monsoon than previous forecast in April may keep the prices under pressure. 

Sugar futures likely to trade sideways on the back of mixed fundamentals of higher supplies and improvement in physical demand from industrial buyers. There are reports of rebound in sugarcane production over the next year due to higher acreage. As per the USDA report, India’s sugar production is forecast to rebound by 18% to 25.8 MT due to higher area and yields. Imports are forecast lower while, consumption is forecast to edge higher to 26.0 MT. Maharashtra government seeks differential pricing for sugar where industrial buyers have to pay more while retail consumer pays less. Moreover, government extends curbs on holding of sugar stocks by six months for the sugar dealers and traders.

Barley futures traded higher due to pick-up in demand from major consuming industries at the spot market. Further, tight stocks position following lower supplies from the producing regions too droved the uptrend.

Cotton futures traded under pressure tracking weak cues from International counter. There are sufficient supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers. As per the trader source, India’s cotton imports have touched an all-time high of 30 lakh bales this season. USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017-18 at 6.01 MT, up nearly 6% while area is forecast at 11.5 Mhac, up 10% from last year. The domestic cotton arrivals in April are higher by 49% on year at 2.64 lakh tonnes as compared with 1.77 lakh tonnes last year.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Support seen at 2790---2760 and resistance at 2870

Close above 2870 will take it to 2920---2950 and then to 3020 mark else it could test its support level of 2790---2760 again.

Further downside rally will see only weekly close below 2760 mark.

Trade with levels only

Jeera 

Support at 17800 and resistance at 18400.

Close below 17800 will see further downside panic till 17350---17050 else it could touch its resistance level of 18400 again.

Trend- Sideways 

RM Seed 

Expecting bearish path ahead as price breached its crucial support of 3700 and settled below the same. 

Now Support at 3670 and resistance is 3750---3820.

Weekly close below 3670 will take it to 3620 and then 3550 mark else could touch its resistance of 3750---3820 again

Fresh buy can be initiated only above 3850 mark

Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at lower levels.

Turmeric

Crucial support at 5550---5400 and resistance is 5900.

Looks sideways higher and every decline till 5550 will be buying opportunity. 

More power will see above 5900 will take 6100---6200 mark.

Fresh selling only can be seen below 5400 mark.

So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Only trade with levels.

Cocudakl (June)

Support seen at 1910 and resistance is at 1990.

Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 1990. Close above 1990 will take to 2060---2125 mark else it may test its support of 1910 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated only close below 1910.

Trend- Sideways Higher

Mentha oil (May)

Support at 945 and resistance at 968.

Close above 968 will take to 990---1010 mark else it could test its support level of 945 again.

Close below 945 will see again panic till 920---905 mark.

Trade with levels only

CPO (May)

We are in bullish from 505 to 516 and touched a high of 515.90 yesterday.

Now we will take cautionary approach at higher level .Support seen at 510 and resistance is 516---524

Close above 516 will take to 524 mark. Fresh selling can initiate only close below 510. 

Trade with levels only.

Trend – Sideways Higher

More will update soon!!

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Update on Base Metals

Copper 

Hurdle at 365, Break and close above 365 will take it to 376—382++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 356.00

Fresh selling can be initiated below 356.00

Nickel 

Support at 580 and resistance 605

Weekly close above 605 will take it to 620—650 and then 665+ mark in days to come else could test its support level of 580.

Further downside panic will see on close below 580.

Lead 

Support at 132 and Resistance at 135

 Break and close above 135 will take it 139—142+++mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 132 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 132

Zinc

Support at 161.00---159.00 and Resistance at 165.00

 Weekly close above 165 will take it to 171.00---174.00+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 161.00---159.00 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 159.00 mark

Aluminium

Hurdle at 125.50. Break and close above 125.50 will take it to 128---130.50 and then to 133+++ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 122.50 again

Trade with levels only.

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels of the day 19th May 2017

Nifty 9,429 /Sensex 30,434 / Bank Nifty 22,698

6 Advances / 45 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

* Feeble global cues drag benchmarks lower; Sensex settles below 30,500*

Snapping the record-setting spree, Indian equity benchmarks ended the daunting day of trade with a cut of around a percent, with frontline gauges settling below their crucial 30,500 (Sensex) and 9,450 (Nifty) levels amid selloff as political turmoil in White House spooked investors and dragged the global markets. Major bourses traded in red terrain throughout the session, as traders remained on sidelines eyeing two-day Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meet beginning in Srinagar, which will see participation from 29 states and union territories, along with Jaitley, and senior officials from the revenue department. In the meeting Finance Ministry Arun Jaitley is likely to finalise the rates that various goods and services will attract from July 1. Meanwhile, the GST Council approved all nine rules for the rollout of the new indirect tax regime. The nine rules finalized by the council pertain to composition, valuation, transition, input tax credit, invoice, payment, refund, registration and return.

Market participants failed to get any sense of relief with Commerce and Industry Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s statement that India’s exports have been increasing despite global headwinds and efforts are being made to neutralise any impact on them due to implementation of GST. Traders also overlooked a senior UN economic official’s statement that the demonetization policy is not expected to have a long term impact on domestic demand in India, which is projected to clock a 7.9 percent growth in fiscal 2018.

Selling intensified in last leg of trade with European markets making a somber start as mounting political uncertainty in the U.S. exacerbated concerns among investors as to whether President Donald Trump would be able to deliver on key pro-growth policies. Asian markets too traded weak and ended mostly in red on Thursday.

Back home, depreciation in Indian rupee too dampened sentiments. The Indian rupee weakened for the third consecutive session against the US dollar as concern over US President Donald Trump spurred a selloff in emerging market currencies. On the sectorial front, banking stocks remained under pressure after domestic rating agency India Ratings and Research report highlighted that the banking system has Rs 7.7 trillion of unrecognized stressed loans in corporate and SME sector and around 35 per cent of that could slip into the NPA category in the next 12-18 months. Select pharma companies too ended in red, as the drug price regulator NPPA has initiated action against various firms, including Abbott Healthcare, Zydus Cadila and Dr Reddy’s, for non-compliance with provisions for new drugs under the price control regime. In a notification issued, the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) said that various companies have launched formulations by altering a scheduled formulation with strength dosage other than as specified in the Drugs Price Control Order (DPCO) 2013.

FII’s Activity 18-May-17

The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6310.87 crore against gross selling of Rs 5147.89 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1162.98 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2732.32 crore with gross sales of Rs 680.47 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 2051.85 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Yesterday we have seen sharp fall in Nifty. It crashed vertically almost 100 points.

Now what to expect???

Support at 9350 and Resistance at 9550.

Below 9425 will see further downside panic till 9380---9350 mark. More downside panic will see only close below 9350 level only else it could test its resistance level of 9480---9550 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Results Today

V-Guard Industries Limited

Sintex Industries Limited

Tata Power Company Limited

Suzlon Energy Limited

Union Bank of India

State Bank of India

Motherson Sumi Systems Limited

Just Dial Limited

IFCI Limited

More will update soon!!

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⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 18th May 17

Gold futures ended higher on Wednesday as political turmoil in the United States reduced expectations of aggressive interest rate rise this year, pushing down US bond yields and drove the dollar to its lowest in six months.

Crude oil futures surged on Wednesday to hit three weeks high after the U.S. Energy Information Administration data confirmed a surprising drop in U.S. oil stockpiles. As per EIA domestic crude supplies fell by 1.8 million barrels for the week ended May 12. That's the sixth straight weekly decline. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories dropped by only 0.413 million, while distillate stockpiles fell by 1.94 million barrels. A report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), however, warned that OPEC’s effort to rein in the glut in supply may fail even if the oil group agrees to extend its supply-cut agreement.

Comex copper futures ended lower on Wednesday, while London copper prices too fell after reports showed that LME inventories have climbed by a third since late April, they added another 17,100 tonnes to 339,600 tonnes on Wednesday.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28500 and Resistance at 29000---29300

Looks positive can could touch its resistance level of 29000 mark. Further upside rally will see if closes above 29200---29300 else could touch its support level of 28500 again. 

Fresh selling can be initiated below 28500

Silver

Support at 38600 and Resistance at 39400—39650

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 39400—39650, further upside rally will see only above 39650 mark else could touch its support level of 38600 mark again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 38700.

Crude 

Support at 3080 and Resistance at 3180

Break and sustain below 3080 will take it to 3030—3000 and then to 2970 mark in days to come, else could touch its resistance level of 3180 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3180

Copper 

Support at 356 and Resistance at 365

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

Economic Data

06:00 P.M Unemployment Claim:  Previous 236K Forecast 240K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Unemployment Claims – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Philly Fed Manufacturing Index:  Previous 22.00 Forecast 19.9 Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Manufacturing Index – will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

08:00 P.M Natural Gas Storage:  Previous 45B, Forecast 61B, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Natural Gas Storage – will have negative impact on natural gas prices or vice versa.

10:30 PM ECB President Draghi Speaks

More will update soon!!

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CESC restructures biz, demerges into 4 cos; stock dips 15% on announcement

RP Sanjiv Goenka Group today announced the restructuring of its flagship company CESC Ltd by splitting it into four companies.

Group chairman Sanjiv Goenka said CESC is being split into four companies by way of 'mirror image' demerger for value unlocking and focused management into each of the verticals.

He said all power distribution business of the group will be under CESC Ltd, all generation activity will be housed in CESC Generation, the retail business Spencer's will be a sperate company and all non-power and retail will be under CESC Ventures.

BPO company Firstsource, sports, FMCG and real estate will be bought under CESC Ventures.

All these four entities will be listed and the effective date will be October 1.

Goenka said, "The paid up capital of CESC Ltd is Rs 132 crore but it has been increased to Rs 198 crore by way of gift or similar to bonus but cannot be termed as bonus. Shareholders will get additional value worth Rs 66 crore when they get fresh shares of the four demerged entities."

For each 10 shares of CESC Ltd, a shareholder will get five shares of Rs 10 each in generation, distribution, two shares in CESC Ventures and six shares in Spencer's (face value of Rs 5 each).

Post the restructuring announcement CESC stock price dropped around 15 percent to levels of Rs 815 per share.

Source: Moneycontrol

More will update soon!!

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Trump campaign had at least 18 undisclosed contacts with Russians: Sources

Michael Flynn and other advisers to Donald Trump's campaign were in contact with Russian officials and others with Kremlin ties in at least 18 calls and emails during the last seven months of the 2016 presidential race, current and former U.S. officials familiar with the exchanges told Reuters.

The previously undisclosed interactions form part of the record now being reviewed by FBI and congressional investigators probing Russian interference in the U.S. presidential election and contacts between Trumps campaign and Russia.

Six of the previously undisclosed contacts described to Reuters were phone calls between Kislyak and Trump advisers, including Flynn, Trumps first national security adviser, three current and former officials said.

Conversations between Flynn and Kislyak accelerated after the Nov. 8 vote as the two discussed establishing a back channel for communication between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that could bypass the U.S. national security bureaucracy, which both sides considered hostile to improved relations, four current U.S. officials said.

White House: Trumpdid not ask Comey to drop investigation of Flynn  

13 Hours Ago | 01:40

In January, the Trump White House initially denied any contacts with Russian officials during the 2016 campaign. The White House and advisers to the campaign have since confirmed four meetings between Kislyak and Trump advisers during that time.

The people who described the contacts to Reuters said they had seen no evidence of wrongdoing or collusion between the campaign and Russia in the communications reviewed so far. But the disclosure could increase the pressure on Trump and his aides to provide the FBI and Congress with a full account of interactions with Russian officials and others with links to the Kremlin during and immediately after the 2016 election.

The White House did not respond to requests for comment. Flynn's lawyer declined to comment. In Moscow, a Russian foreign ministry official declined to comment on the contacts and referred Reuters to the Trump administration.

Separately, a spokesman for the Russian embassy in Washington said: We do not comment on our daily contacts with the local interlocutors.

The 18 calls and electronic messages took place between April and November 2016 as hackers engaged in what U.S. intelligence concluded in January was part of a Kremlin campaign to discredit the vote and influence the outcome of the election in favor of Trump over his Democratic challenger, former secretary of state Hillary Clinton.

Those discussions focused on mending U.S.-Russian economic relations strained by sanctions imposed on Moscow, cooperating in fighting Islamic State in Syria and containing a more assertive China, the sources said.

Members of the Senate and House intelligence committees have gone to the CIA and the National Security Agency to review transcripts and other documents related to contacts between Trump campaign advisers and associates and Russian officials and others with links to Putin, people with knowledge of those investigations told Reuters.

The U.S. Justice Department said on Wednesday it had appointed former FBI Director Robert Mueller as special counsel to investigate alleged Russian meddling in the U.S. presidential campaign and possible collusion between Trumps campaign and Russia. Mueller will now take charge of the FBI investigation that began last July. Trump and his aides have repeatedly denied any collusion with Russia.

'It's rare'

In addition to the six phone calls involving Kislyak, the communications described to Reuters involved another 12 calls, emails or text messages between Russian officials or people considered to be close to Putin and Trump campaign advisers.

One of those contacts was by Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch and politician, according to one person with detailed knowledge of the exchange and two others familiar with the issue.

It was not clear with whom Medvedchuk was in contact within the Trump campaign but the themes included U.S.-Russia cooperation, the sources said. Putin is godfather to Medvedchuks daughter.

Trump reportedly asked former FBI Director Comey t drop the investigation into Michael Flynn  

20 Hours Ago | 00:39

Medvedchuk denied having any contact with anyone in the Trump campaign.

"I am not acquainted with any of Donald Trump's close associates, therefore no such conversation could have taken place," he said in an email to Reuters.

In the conversations during the campaign, Russian officials emphasized a pragmatic, business-style approach and stressed to Trump associates that they could make deals by focusing on common economic and other interests and leaving contentious issues aside, the sources said.

Veterans of previous election campaigns said some contact with foreign officials during a campaign was not unusual, but the number of interactions between Trump aides and Russian officials and others with links to Putin was exceptional.

Its rare to have that many phone calls to foreign officials, especially to a country we consider an adversary or a hostile power, Richard Armitage, a Republican and former deputy secretary of state, told Reuters.

Flynn fired

Beyond Medvedchuk and Kislyak, the identities of the other Putin-linked participants in the contacts remain classified and the names of Trump advisers other than Flynn have been masked in intelligence reports on the contacts because of legal protections on their privacy as American citizens. However, officials can request that they be revealed for intelligence purposes.

U.S. and allied intelligence and law enforcement agencies routinely monitor communications and movements of Russian officials.

After Vice President Mike Pence and others had denied in January that Trump campaign representatives had any contact with Russian officials, the White House later confirmed that Kislyak had met twice with then-Senator Jeff Sessions, who later became attorney general.

Kislyak also attended an event in April where Trump said he would seek better relations with Russia. Senior White House adviser Jared Kushner, Trumps son-in-law, also attended that event in Washington. In addition, Kislyak met with two other Trump campaign advisers in July on the sidelines of the Republican convention.

Trump fired Flynn in February after it became clear that he had falsely characterized the nature of phone conversations with Kislyak in late December - after the Nov. 8 election and just after the Obama administration announced new sanctions on Russia. Flynn offered to testify to Congress in return for immunity from prosecution but his offer was turned down by the House intelligence committee.

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 18th May 2017

Rupee weakens against US dollar on Thursday

Indian rupee weakened against US dollar on Thursday amid fresh capital flight. Rupee fell further by demand for the US currency from importers and banks, and a lower opening in the domestic stock market. On the global front, the dollar wallowed near six-month lows against a basket of major currencies on Thursday as the US political crisis appeared to deepen, and likely to delay any efforts by President Donald Trump to carry out his economic stimulus plans.

USDINR (May)

Support at 64.30---64.00 and Resistance at 64.70

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

GBP-INR

Support at 83.30 and Resistance at 84.00.

Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 84.00 will see sharp upside rally till 85---86.50+++ mark

Looks weak only if closes below 83.30

EURINR

Too skyrocketed from 70.25---71.99 mark

Now what to expect???

Support at 71.00 and Resistance at 72.00

Formed reverse head & shoulder pattern on daily chart.

Break and close above 72.00 will take it to 72.80—73.50+++ mark in days to come else it could touch its support level of 71.40---71.00 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 71.00

JPYINR

Our buy call of JPYINR proven great. We recommended buying above 57.00

Now what to expect???

Close above 58.30 will take it to 58.60—58.90 and then to 59.50+++ mark in days to come.

Support and revise stop loss of 57.70

More will update soon!!

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