Fundamental Aspect
Despite higher stock in the country, Soybean futures gained near 1% tracking progressive cues from International prices .As per the report of SOPA, about 54 lakh tonnes of soybean has been crushed and estimate of 46 lakh tonnes of soybean is available in the country. In crop year 2016-17 till end of April about 59 lakh tonnes of soybean arrived as compared with 58 lakh tonnes marked in last year. Physical demand has been steady as 60% of soybean mills in Madhya Pradesh reported to have shut down because of subdued demand for soymeal and lower prices of soy oil. IMD forecast for near normal monsoon than previous forecast in April may keep the prices under pressure.
Sugar futures likely to trade sideways on the back of mixed fundamentals of higher supplies and improvement in physical demand from industrial buyers. There are reports of rebound in sugarcane production over the next year due to higher acreage. As per the USDA report, India’s sugar production is forecast to rebound by 18% to 25.8 MT due to higher area and yields. Imports are forecast lower while, consumption is forecast to edge higher to 26.0 MT. Maharashtra government seeks differential pricing for sugar where industrial buyers have to pay more while retail consumer pays less. Moreover, government extends curbs on holding of sugar stocks by six months for the sugar dealers and traders.
Barley futures traded higher due to pick-up in demand from major consuming industries at the spot market. Further, tight stocks position following lower supplies from the producing regions too droved the uptrend.
Cotton futures traded under pressure tracking weak cues from International counter. There are sufficient supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers. As per the trader source, India’s cotton imports have touched an all-time high of 30 lakh bales this season. USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017-18 at 6.01 MT, up nearly 6% while area is forecast at 11.5 Mhac, up 10% from last year. The domestic cotton arrivals in April are higher by 49% on year at 2.64 lakh tonnes as compared with 1.77 lakh tonnes last year.
Technical Aspect: (June Contract)
Soybean
Support seen at 2790---2760 and resistance at 2870
Close above 2870 will take it to 2920---2950 and then to 3020 mark else it could test its support level of 2790---2760 again.
Further downside rally will see only weekly close below 2760 mark.
Trade with levels only
Jeera
Support at 17800 and resistance at 18400.
Close below 17800 will see further downside panic till 17350---17050 else it could touch its resistance level of 18400 again.
Trend- Sideways
RM Seed
Expecting bearish path ahead as price breached its crucial support of 3700 and settled below the same.
Now Support at 3670 and resistance is 3750---3820.
Weekly close below 3670 will take it to 3620 and then 3550 mark else could touch its resistance of 3750---3820 again
Fresh buy can be initiated only above 3850 mark
Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at lower levels.
Turmeric
Crucial support at 5550---5400 and resistance is 5900.
Looks sideways higher and every decline till 5550 will be buying opportunity.
More power will see above 5900 will take 6100---6200 mark.
Fresh selling only can be seen below 5400 mark.
So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Only trade with levels.
Cocudakl (June)
Support seen at 1910 and resistance is at 1990.
Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 1990. Close above 1990 will take to 2060---2125 mark else it may test its support of 1910 again.
Fresh selling can be initiated only close below 1910.
Trend- Sideways Higher
Mentha oil (May)
Support at 945 and resistance at 968.
Close above 968 will take to 990---1010 mark else it could test its support level of 945 again.
Close below 945 will see again panic till 920---905 mark.
Trade with levels only
CPO (May)
We are in bullish from 505 to 516 and touched a high of 515.90 yesterday.
Now we will take cautionary approach at higher level .Support seen at 510 and resistance is 516---524
Close above 516 will take to 524 mark. Fresh selling can initiate only close below 510.
Trade with levels only.
Trend – Sideways Higher
More will update soon!!
