Agri Commodity Update (08-May-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean May futures continued in its recovery mode from last couple of days due to lower level buying tracking firm trend in US soybean. Last week, the prices were down on ample available stocks in the country. As per the trader source, the arrivals of soybean during first week of May, lower by 33% compared to first week arrivals in April. Moreover, the stocks of soybean in NCDEX warehouse as on 1st May 2017 is about 1.21 lakh tonnes against the 55, 133 tonnes last year. This indicates that there are ample supplies available in the physical market may put further pressure on prices.

NCDEX Turmeric prices plunged almost 12% last week tracking weak cues from physical market prices amid lower demand from industrial buyers and reports of higher stocks available in the country. Turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first week of May at 11,528 tonnes compared to 20,703 tonnes during April (1-7).On the export front, country exported about 97,596 tonnes during April-Feb period, up by 26.6% compared to last year exports of 77,087 tonnes, as per the government data. There are expectations of improved demand in coming weeks as prices are lower.

Jeera futures traded moderately higher due to rising exports demand at the spot market. On the export front, the country’s exports rises by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tons in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17. Moreover, the arrivals have been lower during the first week of May as compared to the April reading, too fuelled the positive sentiment in the prices ahead. The reports of Gujarat Agriculture Department showed that in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down by 4% from its 2nd estimates and almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lakh tonnes.

Mentha oil futures traded marginally lower as investors and speculators trimmed their positions in the agro-commodity amid subdued demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from producing regions, too inclined mentha oil prices.

Technical Aspect

Soybean

Support at 2830 and resistance at 2940

Looks positive and its likely to touch its resistance level of 2940.

Break and sustain above 2940 will take it to 2990—3035 and then to 3070 mark else it could touch its support level of 2830 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 2830 mark.

Soyref

Support at 615 and Resistance 628.

We told to buy at 618 and exactly tested a high of 627.90 today near our target.

Now daily close above 628 will take to 634---639 and then to 647+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 615 again

Fresh selling can initiate only below 615 only.

Trade with levels only

Dhaniya 

We still maintained our selling view below 6900 for 5300.

Support at 5600 and Resistance is 6000

Break and close below 5600 will see further downside move till 5300

Dear cat bounce may happen... But trend looks extreme weak on charts 

 Trade in a range with levels only

Jeera 

Support at 17600 and resistance at 18500.

Weekly close below 17600 will see a sharp downside panic till 17150---16800 else it could touch its resistance level of 18500 again

Be cautious at upper levels.

Trend- Sideways Lower 

RM Seed 

Support at 3650 and resistance is 3745---3775

Momentum looks weak and if prices gives daily close below 3650 will see a sharp downside towards 3605---3560 else could touch its resistance level of 3745---3775 again

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3745 mark

Trade in a range with levels only

TMC

Crucial support is 5300 and resistance is 5600

We expect rebound in prices and if prices close above 5465 will take to 5600 mark else could touch its support level of 5300 again.

Fresh selling only can be seen below 5300

So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Anything seems adverse will update.

Cocudakl (June)

Our buy call proven great and made a high of 2030.

Close above 2030 will take to 2055---2070 mark. More and more power will see only close above 2070 else it may test its support level of 1990---1950 again

Fresh selling can be seen only below 1950 mark

Trend- Sideways Higher

Mentha oil 

Support at 900 and resistance at 935

Two consecutive close below 900 will see further weakness till 870---855 mark else could test it resistance level of 935 again.

Trade with levels only

CPO

Our target was 498---505. Just made a high of 501.30. 

Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 505. More and more power will see only close above 505 else it could test its support level of 492----487 again.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 487 mark. 

Trade with levels only

Trend – Sideways Higher

More will update soon!!

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Technical Pick-DLF

                  

DLF

Support at 184 and resistance at 197

Trend Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 197. 

Close above 197 will see further upside rally till 206++ in it else could touch its support level of 184 again.

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 8th May 2017

 Nifty 9,285/ Sensex 29,858/ Bank Nifty 22,604

14 Advances / 37 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Sensex slams double century; Nifty ends above 9,350 mark

A session after showcasing amazing gains of over half a percent, Indian equity indices faltered and failed to extend the winning momentum on Friday. The benchmark indices suffered hefty bouts of profit booking especially in commodities related counters and got dragged below the psychological 9,300 (Nifty) and 29,900 (Sensex) levels. Besides, a selloff in banking shares after the President Pranab Mukherjee Okayed the ordinance on non-performing assets, concerns over French elections on Sunday and mixed global earnings have also hit the sentiment hard. The ordinance promulgated by the government on bad loans has now empowered the Reserve Bank of India to issue directions to banks for resolution of stressed assets. Market participants remained cautious ahead of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meeting, scheduled on May 18-19, to finalise the rates of different commodities and services. It will also approve rates of remaining items. Investors failed to get any sense of relief with Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) President Shobana Kamineni's statement that India can achieve a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 10 percent by fiscal year 2019-20 on the back of tremendous opportunities available in the economy. Furthermore, Economic Affairs Secretary Shaktikanta Das said Indian economy will grow 8% next fiscal as the full-year impact of the landmark GST will be seen by that time. The GST, dubbed as the biggest tax reform since independence, will club nearly a dozen central and state levies into a single national sales tax, helping the country integrate into one market. Meanwhile, the gold and jewellery stocks gained traction on report that the uptake for gold in India for January-March this year was 124 tonnes, up 15% compared with the overall demand for the same period in 2016.

On the global front, Asian equity benchmarks ended mixed on Friday, as fresh fall in commodities raised concerns about the health of the global economy, though the euro bucked the broad weakness on receding concerns about France's presidential election. Commodity prices across the board tumbled, led by oil, which fell by 5 per cent in overnight trading on concerns of a supply glut with analysts forecasting further losses. Traders are eyeing the release of the US Labor Department's closely-watched monthly jobs data later today for further cues. The energy stocks in the region were under pressure after the crude oil futures plummeted overnight on global glut concern. Chinese stocks led regional losers, falling to a three-month low as concerns about tighter financial regulations weighed on banking shares. Meanwhile, European stocks edged lower in early trade as tumbling oil prices weighed on investor sentiment.

Back home, the local benchmark got off to a gap down opening, in tandem with the somber sentiments prevailing in Asian markets. Thereafter, the key indices failed to show any kind of fervor due to lack of encouraging leads. The key gauges suffered a setback in afternoon trades as sudden bouts of profit booking emerged in the local markets immediately after a somber European market opening. Finally, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, suffered a nasty seventy-point laceration to settle below the crucial 9,300 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index Sensex got obliterated by over two hundred and fifty points and closed below the psychological 29,900 mark. Moreover, the broader markets too failed to show any kind of fervor and settled with large cuts of around a percent.

FII’s Activity 5th-May-17

The FIIs as per Friday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6023.42 crore against gross selling of Rs 6163.58 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 140.16 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 975.54 crore with gross sales of Rs 228.60 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 746.94 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9240 and Resistance at 9380---9450.

Above 9330 rally remain continue till 9380---9450 mark else it could test its support level of 9240 again.

Close below 9240 will take to 9180---9130 mark.

 Major support intact at 9080

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 22500 and resistance at 22900

Trend Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 22900.

Close above 22900 will see further upside rally in it else could touch its support level of 22500 again.

Today's Top Pick

Mahindra CIE Automotive

Support at 225 and Resistance at 244

Above 244 will see upside rally till 263---275+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 225

Result Today

Canara Bank

Union Bank of India

Bharti Infratel Limited

More will update soon!!

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कमोडिटी बाजार : एनर्जी : OPEC देश जून के बाद भी कर सकते हैं उत्पादन में कटौती, सऊदी अरब से मिले संकेत

दुनियाभर में कच्चे तेल की कुल सप्लाई का 40 फीसदी हिस्सा पैदा करने वाले तेल उत्पादक देशों के संगठन OPEC की तरफ से कीमतों को ऊपर उठाने के लिए 2017 की पहली छमाही में उत्पादन में कटौती का जो फैसला किया था उस फैसले को जून के बाद भी लागू किया जा सकता है। OPEC देशों में सबसे बड़े उत्पादक और निर्यातक सऊदी अरब के OPEC गवर्नर की तरफ से इस तरह का बयान आया है।

सऊदी अरब के OPEC गवर्नर ने कहा है कि OPEC और गैर OPEC देश कच्चे तेल के उत्पादन की कटौती को जून के बाद भी लागू कर सकते हैं। पहली जनवरी से OPEC और गैर OPEC देशों की तरफ से रोजाना उत्पादन में 18 लाख बैरल की कटौती का फैसला किया गया था जिसमें से OPEC देशों को 12 लाख बैरल और गैर OPEC देशों को 6 लाख बैरल उत्पादन घटाना था।

सऊदी अरब की तरफ से यह बयान ऐसे समय पर आया है जब कच्चे तेल के दाम करीब 5 महीने के निचले स्तर पर आ गए हैं, आज भाव घटकर 44 डॉलर प्रति बैरल तक देखा गया है जो नवंबर 2016 के बाद सबसे कम भाव है। OPEC देशों ने उत्पादन घटाने का जो फैसला किया था तो कच्चे तेल का भाव इसी स्तर के करीब था। 

Source: MarketTimesTv

More will update soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 05th May 17

Gold futures were trading higher on MCX on increased demand in the spot market mainly on account of ongoing marriage season. Besides, speculators created fresh positions driven by positive trend in the global markets on receding political risks in France and expectations of a U.S. rate rise as early as June 2017.

Crude oil futures suffered sharp slump on Thursday, just after a day of showing some recovery sign, as investors’ concerns about the glut in crude stockpiles heightened, ahead of the OPEC meeting on May 25. It was the worst daily drop for oil prices in 2017. There were reports that talks between rival Libya factions 'made some progress,' potentially ending supply interruptions from the North African nation. Libya's crude production rebounded to more than 700,000 barrels a day, it was recently reported. Oversupply jitters returned as producers, who are not part of the deal to curb supply, the US in particular, ramped up output, which has dampened OPEC’s effort to reduce global supply.

LME Copper prices plunged 1 percent yesterday to close at $5543/t as the Fed maintained status quo in the latest meeting but signalled that two more rate increases are likely this year. Also, recent steps by the Chinese government to cool the overheated property market are going to hurt base metals demand in the near term. Six major Chinese banks have raised interest rates on housing loans for first- and second-home buyers, effective from

May 1, in Beijing. Further, surge in LME inventories by more than 11 percent for the second after a whopping 12 percent jump on the prior day, added to the woes. Latest supply disruption concerns with the recent strike at the Grasberg mine in Indonesia could not support prices much. 

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28020---27900 and Resistance at 28250

Break and sustain below 28140 will take to 28080---28020 and then to 27900. 

Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 28250 mark.

Silver

Support at 37800 and Resistance 38700

Close below 37800 will take to 37500—37300 and then to 36800 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 38700 mark again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 38700 on closing basis

Crude 

Support at 2830 and Resistance at 2960---3025.

We will expect range bound trading with high volatility. Trade safely

Copper 

Support at 356 and Resistance at 365

Trend looks weak and could touch its support level of 356. Further downside panic will see on close below 356 else could touch its resistance level of 365 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 365

Economic Data

06:00 P.M Unemployment Rate:  Previous 4.5% Forecast 4.6%, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Unemployment Rate – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Unemployment Claim:  Previous 357K Forecast 346K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Unemployment Claims – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Average Hourly Earnings m/m:  Previous 0.2% Forecast 0.3%, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Average Hourly Earnings m/m – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

11:00 P.M Fed Chair Yellen Speaks

More will update soon!!

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