Agri Commodity Update (28-Apr-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Wheat traded gradually lower on NCDEX counter due to higher production reported, which is likely to touch a record of 98 million tonnes in the ongoing 2016-17 crop year ending June. This is due to higher yields and taking into account the feedback received by agriculture ministry from the state governments and traders. The ministry had nailed a record wheat output of 96.64 MT for the current crop year (July-June) in its second estimate, compared to the actual output of 92.29 MT a year ago. The government is aiming to procure 30 MT of wheat at the support price in view of the expected record output on the back of good monsoon. As of now, the new crop is being harvested in full swing. The government agencies have already procured more than 10 MT of the grain from states like Punjab and Haryana.

Turmeric prices traded moderately lower in the spot as well on the futures market are making fresh yearly lows on expectations of a bumper harvest this season. The supply side fundamentals climax that total output in country is expected to be around 7.5 million bags in 2016-17, as compared to 6.8 million bags in 2015-16. If we added the carryover stocks of 3 million bags, the total supply may rise to 10.5 million bags. The domestic consumption is around 6-6.2 million bags & this will leave extra of 3 million bags for the next season even after exports.

Jeera futures prices likely to consolidate in a limited range from last couple of days. Further, it is expected to remain stable amid growing tension is Syria & export orders turning towards India. Jeera exports for the current year are estimated as high as 1, 00, 000-1,50,000 tonnes as global supplies are very limited. 

Soybean traded in a narrow range with lower bias on NCDEX. At the spot markets the supplies are reducing day by day as the farmers are not keen to sell at current levels & are in mood to hold their produce till they get better price. On the other hand, crushers are increasing the buying soybean on daily basis as they have to fulfil the current monthly capacity.

Technical Aspect

Soybean

Support at 2900 and Resistance at 2980

If unable to breach its support level of 2900 the we can expect upside move till 2980. 

Weekly close above 2980 will take it to 3040---3070.

Fresh sell can be initiate only below 2900.

Soyref

Support at 605 and Resistance 615

Weekly close below 605 will see sharp downside panic till 593---589 and then to 584 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 615 again

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 615 mark

Trade with levels only

Dhaniya 

Support at 6500 and Resistance is 6800

Looks weak; break and close below 6500 will see sharp downside move till 6350---6200 mark in days to come else it could touch its resistance  level of 6800 again.

Fresh buying can be seen only above 6800

 Trade in a range with levels only

Jeera 

Support at 18700 and Resistance at 19600

Weekly close above 19600 will see a sharp upside towards 19980---20250 else it could touch its support level of 18700.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 18700 mark.

Trend- Sideways 

RM Seed 

Weekly close below 3750 will extend it to 3665---3620.

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3840 mark

Trade in a range with levels only

TMC

Crucial Support is 6050 and Resistance is 6300 

Weekly close below 6050; fresh round of selling can be seen towards 5840 ---5720 mark else could touch its resistance level of 6300 again.

Fresh buying only can be seen above 6300

Cocudakl

Support seen at 1900 while resistance can be defined as 1980

Looks rebound and weekly close above 1980 could touch 2040 and then 2110 mark in days to come else it may test its support level of 1900 again

Fresh buying can be seen only below 1900 will take to 1845---1730 and then to 1650+ mark.

Trend- Sideways Higher

Mentha oil (May)

Support at 920 and resistance at 945

Weekly close below 920 further weakness can be seen till 890---875 mark else could test its resistance level of 945 again.

Trade with levels only

CPO (May)

Support at 480 and Resistance at 495---498.

Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 495.

More and more power will see only close above 498 towards 508 and then 514 mark else it could test its support again.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 480 mark. 

Trade with levels only

Trend – Sideways Higher

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 28 - April 2017

 Rupee ends at near 20-month high against US dollar

Snapping three-day winning streak, Indian rupee ended marginally lower against dollar on Thursday, due to fresh demand for the American currency from banks and importers. Sentiments remained dampened after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley expressed concern over the worrying signs of economic protectionism and has said the continued unpredictability in ties between major powers has brought new uncertainties to the fore.  Besides, weak trade in the domestic equity market also kept pressure on the local currency. On the global front, dollar pushed higher against yen on Thursday after the Trump administration outlined its tax plan and traders awaited the European Central Bank's monetary policy decision later in the day.

Finally, the rupee ended at 64.15, 4 paise weaker from its previous close of 64.11 on Wednesday. The currency touched a high and low of 64.17 and 63.97 respectively. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) reference rate for the dollar stood at 64.11 and for Euro stood at 69.89 on April 27, 2017. While the RBI’s reference rate for the Yen stood at 57.60, the reference rate for the Great Britain Pound (GBP) stood at 82.58. The reference rates are based on 12 noon rates of a few select banks in Mumbai.

USDINR (May)

Hurdle at 64.45, close above 64.45 will take it to 64.60—64.75 and then to 65.00 again, else could touch its support level of 64.00 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 64.00

Trade with levels only.

GBPINR (May)

We clearly recommended looks positive above 82.95 and can touch 83.20—83.50, Just made high of 83.34

Now what to expect??

Trend looks positive, hurdle at 83.35, Close above 83.35 will take it to 83.75—83.90 and then to 84.20 mark in days to come.

Support at 82.90

EURINR (May)

Support at 70.10 and Resistance 70.40

Close below 70.10 will take it to 69.90—69.60 and then to 69.30 mark else could touch its resistance level of 70.40 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 70.40

JPYINR

Support at 57.70 and resistance 58.10

Close above 58.10 will take it to 58.40—58.80 mark, else could touch its support level of 57.70 mark 

Further downside panic will see below 57.70

Trade with levels only

More will update soon!!

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Technical Pick - Ingersoll Rand

 Technical Pick - Ingersoll Rand 

On weekly chart it is looking bullish. Ingersoll Rand is finding support at 900 and resistance at 924. On weekly chart, Ingersoll Rand is forming double bottom pattern while trading above 21 and below 55 days exponential moving average which is at 719 and 710 respectively while RSI and MACD too showing positive divergence which indicates that upper side seems certain in it. Ingersoll Rand is likely to touch 960 and 1020 level respectively. Three consecutive close + weekly close above 924 will see nonstop rally in Ingersoll Rand till 1020+ mark in days to come.

Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 1020+++mark in coming weeks. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 900 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms. 

Trading Recommendation




Buy Ingersoll Rand Cash above 924 for the initial upside target of 960--1020++ mark with stop loss below 900 on closing basis.















More will update soon!!

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Results Declared after market hours on 27th April 2017

Indiabulls Real Estate Q4

-Net profit up 18.8 percent at Rs 79.8 crore versus Rs 67.2 crore (YoY)

-Total income down 38.4 percent at Rs 437 crore versus Rs 709 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA down 28.8 percent at Rs 142.2 crore versus Rs 199.7 crore (YoY)

-EBITDA margin at 32.5 percent versus 28.2 percent (YoY)

-Other income at Rs 108.1 crore versus Rs 26 crore (YoY)

Technical View 

Support at  143 and resistance at 160

Trend Looks positive only closes above 160 level.

trend looks weak only below 143.

Trade with levels only.

Reliance Capital Q4

-Net profit up 99.5 percent at Rs 417 crore versus Rs 209 crore (QoQ)

-Total income up 27.6 percent at Rs 5,033 crore versus Rs 3,945 crore (QoQ)

Technical View 

Support at 653 and resistance at 684

Trend Looks positive only closes above 684 level.

trend looks weak only below 653.

Trade with levels only.

Ujjivan Financial Q4

-Consolidated net profit down 56 percent at Rs 19.3 crore versus Rs 43.9 crore (QoQ)

-Consolidated NII down 33.3 percent at Rs 152.8 crore versus Rs 229 crore (QoQ)

-Consolidated provisions at Rs 7.2 crore versus Rs 54.7 crore (QoQ)

Technical View 

Support at 375 and resistance at 387

Trend Looks positive only closes above 387 level.

Close above 1600 will take it 387--395++.

trend looks weak only below 375.

Trade with levels only.

Biocon Q4

-Consolidated net profit down 61.9 percent at Rs 127.5 crore versus Rs 333 crore (YoY)

-Consolidated total income down 2.7 percent at Rs 931.1 crore versus Rs 956.7 crore (YoY)

-Consolidated EBITDA up 0.8 percent at Rs 187.5 crore versus Rs 186.1 crore (YoY)

-Consolidated EBITDA margin at 20.14 percent versus 19.45 percent (YoY)

Alert: Q4FY16 net profit was aided by one-time gain of Rs 264 crore

Technical View 

Support at 1085 and resistance at 1125

Trend Looks positive only closes above 1125 level.

Close above 1600 will take it 1125--1150++.

trend looks weak only below 1085.

Trade with levels only.

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 28th April 2017

Nifty 9,351/Sensex 30,133 / Bank Nifty 22,242

21 Advances / 30 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

 Late hour selloff drag benchmarks lower; Nifty settles April F&O expiry below 9,350

Indian equity markets truly depicted the choppiness of F&O expiry session and ended the session slightly in red on Thursday. Final hour of trade mainly played spoil sports for the markets and bourses settled below their crucial 30,100 (Sensex) and 9,350 (Nifty) levels. However, for the April series, Nifty garnered gains of 1.84 percent, while Sensex ended the series with a gain of 1.29 percent. Today, markets made a cautious start after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley expressed concern over the worrying signs of economic protectionism and has said the continued unpredictability in ties between major powers has brought new uncertainties to the fore. Separately, investors took note that a stronger rupee can help check inflation as it will pull down commodity prices, but export-reliant companies such as IT firms and drug makers are likely to take up to 4% hit on their earnings. Exporters’ body Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) said the rupee appreciation during the last two months has negatively impacted the country’s exports, and demanded immediate support from the government.

However, markets made smart recovery and entered into green terrain in afternoon session, as some support with the report that the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) approved a slew of reform measures to provide a fillip to the domestic markets, which include approval to options trading in commodity derivatives, unified licence for brokers, mutual fund investments through digital wallets, stricter public offer norms and enhanced safeguards to curb illicit fund flows. Sentiments also got soothed with report that bank credit growth improved to 5.52 percent in the first fortnight of the financial year (FY18), after falling to a whopping six-decade low of 5.08 per cent in the previous financial year (FY17). Some support also came with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley asserting that the government was giving top priority to addressing the issue of bad loans while acknowledging that the problem of non-performing assets was ‘adversely impacting’ the Indian banking system.

Selling in last hour of trade mainly dragged benchmarks lower, as traders opted to book their profits at higher levels. Weak opening in European counters too dampened sentiments. CAC, DAX and FTSE trading lower, as investors waited to hear from European Central Bank President Mario Draghi and digested fresh corporate earnings. However, Asian markets exhibited mixed trend on Thursday.

Back home, the Indian rupee on Thursday erased most of the initial gains and was trading little changed against the US dollar at the time of equity markets closing. The NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index Nifty slipped by 10 points to end below the psychological 9,350 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index -- Sensex declined by over one hundred points to finish below its psychological 30,100 mark. Broader markets too traded in-line with benchmarks and ended mixed on Thursday. The market breadth remained in favor of decliners, as there were 1,309 shares on the gaining side against 1,566 shares on the losing side, while 160 shares remain unchanged.

FII’s Activity 27-April-17

The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5441.78 crore against gross selling of Rs 5506.07 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 64.29 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 661.30 crore with gross sales of Rs 845.86 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 184.56 crore in debt. 

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9240 and Resistance at 9380---9450.

Above 9330 rally remain continue till 9380---9450 mark else will it could test its support level of 9240 again.

Close below 9240 will take to 9180---9130 mark. Major support intact at 9080

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 21800 and resistance at 22500

Trend looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 22500.

Support level of 21800 again.

Trade in a range with levels only. Any reversal seems will update.

Today's Top Pick

Godfryphlp

Support at 1150 and Resistance at 1235

Above 1235 will see sharp upside rally till 1315+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 1150

Results Today

Ambuja Cements Limited

UPL Limited

IDFC Limited

The Federal Bank Limited

CEAT Limited

29-Apr-2017

JSW Energy Limited

More will update soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 27th April. 17

Gold futures ended lower on Wednesday as the dollar weighed by a shift in sentiment towards riskier assets, as investors digested bullish comments from US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and awaited a tax reform update from the Trump administration.

Crude oil futures traded lower on MCX as investors and speculators exited their positions in the energy commodity on lingering oversupply worries in global markets. However, losses were limited by expectations that major exporters would agree to extend production cuts to try to rebalance the market.

Comex copper futures ended higher on Wednesday, while London copper prices too rose as the US dollar lost ground against the euro in the wake of the French election, making commodities more affordable for buyers paying with other currencies.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28600 and Resistance at 28850

Close below 28600 will take it to 28400—28250 and then to 28050 mark else could touch its resistance level of 28850 mark.

Further upside rally will see above 28850

Silver

Support at 39700 and Resistance at 40300

Close below 39700 will take it to 39400—39150 and then to 38800 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 40300 mark again

Fresh buying can be initiated above 40300 mark.

Crude Oil

Support at 3150 and Resistance at 3210 

Break and sustain below 3150 will take it to 3100—3080 and then to 3050 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3210 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3210 mark.

Natural Gas

Yesterday we recommended buying above 205.00 it flared and made high of 210.50 mark.

Now what to expect??

Support at 208.50, break and sustain below 208.50 will take it to 205—201 and then to 196 mark in days to come, else could touch its resistance level of 213.50 mark.

Fresh buying only above 213.50

Copper 

Support at 360—356 and resistance at 368

Above 368 will take it to 371—373 and then to 378+ mark in days to come.

Else could touch its support level of 360—356 again.

Economic Data

06:00 P.M Unemployment Claim:  Previous 244K Forecast 241K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Unemployment Claims – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Core Durable Goods Orders m/m:  Previous 0.5%, Forecast 0.4%, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Core Durable Goods Orders m/m - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Durable Goods Orders m/m:  Previous 1.8%, Forecast 1.5%, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Durable Goods Orders m/m - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

07:30 P.M Pending Home Sales m/m:  Previous 5.5%, Forecast -0.6%, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Pending Home Sales m/m - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

08:00 P.M Natural Gas Storage:  Previous 54B, Forecast 72B, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Natural Gas Storage – will have negative impact on natural gas prices or vice versa.

More will update soon!!

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Technical Pick - DHFL

Technical Pick - DHFL

DHFL has already given a good rally since november 2016 without any major correction. Now it is due for correction and may take reversal from here. Another aspect that is accompayning the correction is the Doji candlestick that has been formed at the top. If the stock breaches and closes below 425 than we may see a healthy correction till 385, else it may continue its uptrend if breaches the resistance of 442.

For positional trade stop loss seen at 442. It is positionally weak only abpve 442 on closing basis 

Trading Recommendation

Sell DHFL Future (May) below 425 on closing basis with the Stop loss of 442 on closing basis

More will update soon!!

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