Fundamental Aspect
Wheat traded gradually lower on NCDEX counter due to higher production reported, which is likely to touch a record of 98 million tonnes in the ongoing 2016-17 crop year ending June. This is due to higher yields and taking into account the feedback received by agriculture ministry from the state governments and traders. The ministry had nailed a record wheat output of 96.64 MT for the current crop year (July-June) in its second estimate, compared to the actual output of 92.29 MT a year ago. The government is aiming to procure 30 MT of wheat at the support price in view of the expected record output on the back of good monsoon. As of now, the new crop is being harvested in full swing. The government agencies have already procured more than 10 MT of the grain from states like Punjab and Haryana.
Turmeric prices traded moderately lower in the spot as well on the futures market are making fresh yearly lows on expectations of a bumper harvest this season. The supply side fundamentals climax that total output in country is expected to be around 7.5 million bags in 2016-17, as compared to 6.8 million bags in 2015-16. If we added the carryover stocks of 3 million bags, the total supply may rise to 10.5 million bags. The domestic consumption is around 6-6.2 million bags & this will leave extra of 3 million bags for the next season even after exports.
Jeera futures prices likely to consolidate in a limited range from last couple of days. Further, it is expected to remain stable amid growing tension is Syria & export orders turning towards India. Jeera exports for the current year are estimated as high as 1, 00, 000-1,50,000 tonnes as global supplies are very limited.
Soybean traded in a narrow range with lower bias on NCDEX. At the spot markets the supplies are reducing day by day as the farmers are not keen to sell at current levels & are in mood to hold their produce till they get better price. On the other hand, crushers are increasing the buying soybean on daily basis as they have to fulfil the current monthly capacity.
Technical Aspect
Soybean
Support at 2900 and Resistance at 2980
If unable to breach its support level of 2900 the we can expect upside move till 2980.
Weekly close above 2980 will take it to 3040---3070.
Fresh sell can be initiate only below 2900.
Soyref
Support at 605 and Resistance 615
Weekly close below 605 will see sharp downside panic till 593---589 and then to 584 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 615 again
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 615 mark
Trade with levels only
Dhaniya
Support at 6500 and Resistance is 6800
Looks weak; break and close below 6500 will see sharp downside move till 6350---6200 mark in days to come else it could touch its resistance level of 6800 again.
Fresh buying can be seen only above 6800
Trade in a range with levels only
Jeera
Support at 18700 and Resistance at 19600
Weekly close above 19600 will see a sharp upside towards 19980---20250 else it could touch its support level of 18700.
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 18700 mark.
Trend- Sideways
RM Seed
Weekly close below 3750 will extend it to 3665---3620.
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3840 mark
Trade in a range with levels only
TMC
Crucial Support is 6050 and Resistance is 6300
Weekly close below 6050; fresh round of selling can be seen towards 5840 ---5720 mark else could touch its resistance level of 6300 again.
Fresh buying only can be seen above 6300
Cocudakl
Support seen at 1900 while resistance can be defined as 1980
Looks rebound and weekly close above 1980 could touch 2040 and then 2110 mark in days to come else it may test its support level of 1900 again
Fresh buying can be seen only below 1900 will take to 1845---1730 and then to 1650+ mark.
Trend- Sideways Higher
Mentha oil (May)
Support at 920 and resistance at 945
Weekly close below 920 further weakness can be seen till 890---875 mark else could test its resistance level of 945 again.
Trade with levels only
CPO (May)
Support at 480 and Resistance at 495---498.
Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 495.
More and more power will see only close above 498 towards 508 and then 514 mark else it could test its support again.
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 480 mark.
Trade with levels only
Trend – Sideways Higher
More will update soon!!
