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Wednesday, April 26, 2017

मौसम : अल-नीनो के नए अनुमान ने मानसून को लेकर चिंता बढ़ाई





भारतीय मौसम विभाग ने भले ही इस साल मानसून सीजन के दौरान सामान्य मानसून की भविष्यवाणी की हो लेकिन अमेरिका के इंटरनेशनल रिसर्च इंस्टिट्यूट फॉर क्लाइमेट एंड सोसाइटी ने अल-नीनो को लेकर नया अनुमान जारी किया है जिससे मासनून सीजन के दौरान कमजोर बरसात की आशंका बढ़ गई है। इंटरनेशनल रिसर्च इंस्टिट्यूट फॉर क्लाइमेट एंड सोसाइटी का अनुमान कहीं से भी भारतीय मौसम विभाग के अनुमान से मेल खाता नहीं दिख रहा है।


इंटरनेशनल रिसर्च इंस्टिट्यूट फॉर क्लाइमेट एंड सोसाइटीने कहा है कि पहले जून से सितंबर के दौरान अल-नीनों के आने की संभावना 50 फीसदी थी लेकिन बीते 2 हफ्ते के दौरान परिस्थितियों में बदलाव हुआ है और इस बदलाव के आधार पर कहा जा सकता है कि मई से जुलाई के दौरान अल-नीनों के आने की संभावना 55 फीसदी हो गई है जबकि जुलाई से सितंबर के दौरान इसकी संभावना 70 फीसदी हो गई है।


अल-नीनो आने की स्थिति में अधिकतर ऐसा होता है कि मानसून सीजन के दौरान कम बरसात हो, ऐसे में मानसून के कमजोर होने की आशंका लाजमी है। हालांकि कई बार ऐसा भी हुआ है कि अल-नीनो आने के बावजूद मानसून सीजन के दौरान सामान्य या सामान्य से ज्यादा बरसात हुई है, भारतीय मौसम विभाग का भी यही तर्क है और मौसम विभाग ने कहा है कि अल-नीनो के बावजूद इस साल सामान्य मानसून रह सकता है। मौसम विभाग ने पूरे मानसून सीजन के दौरान देशभर में औसतन 96 फीसदी बरसात होने का अनुमान लगाया है। 




Source: MarketTimesTv










More will update soon!!

Currency Report 26 - April 2017






Rupee ends at three-week high against US dollar


Indian rupee ended at three-week high against US dollar on Tuesday, taking its winning streak for second straight session, on continued dollar selling by banks and exporters. Sentiments remained positive with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that India will continue to grow at 7-8 per cent rate, an 'absolute normal' for the nation under the current global environment. Jaitley also said as far as the economy is concerned, all the decisions taken by the Modi-Government are consistently in one direction. Besides, persistent rise in the equity market along with dollar weakness overseas too kept the domestic unit in good spirits. On the global front, euro surged on Monday to its strongest level against the greenback in five-and-a-half months after Centrist and pro-EU candidate Emmanuel Macron took first place in the first round of the French presidential election. 


Finally, the rupee ended at 64.27, 17 paise stronger from its previous close of 64.44 on Monday. The currency touched a high and low of 64.41 and 64.20 respectively. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) reference rate for the dollar stood at 64.27 and for Euro stood at 69.85 on April 25, 2017. While the RBI’s reference rate for the Yen stood at 58.33, the reference rate for the Great Britain Pound (GBP) stood at 82.26. The reference rates are based on 12 noon rates of a few select banks in Mumbai.


USDINR (May)






Support at 64.00 and Resistance at 64.800

Looks weak and could touch its support level of 64.00 break and sustain below 64.00 will take it to 63.80—63.50 and then to 63.00 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 64.80 again.

Further upside rally will see only above 64.80

Trade with levels only.



GBP-INR (May)






Support at 82.45 and Resistance at 82.95

Close below 82.45 will take it to 82.15—82.00 and then to 81.80 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 82.95 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 82.95



EURINR (May)







Hurdle at 70.70, close above 70.70 will take it to 71.00—71.30 mark else could touch its support level of 70.10

Close below 70.10 will see downside panic till 69.70-69.40 mark.

Further downside panic will see on close below 69.40 only.



JPYINR









Support at 57.45 and resistance 58.30

Looks weak and could touch its support level 57.45, Three consecutive close + weekly close below 57.45 will take it to 56.50—56.00 and then to 55.70 mark, else could touch its resistance level of 58.30 again.

Further upside rally will see only above 58.30


Trade with levels only











More will update soon!!

Update on Technical levels of Steel Sector






JSW Steel






Support at 196 and Resistance at 202

Three consecutive close + weekly close above 202 will take it 207—210 in days to come  else could touch its support level of 196 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 196.




Tata Steel






Support at 443 and Resistance at 460

Break and sustain above 460 will take it to 470---475 and then to 490+ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 443 again.

Further downside panic will see below 443 only.




SAIL





Support at 59 and Resistance 62

Above 62 it can touch 63.5 – 64.5 and then to 66+ mark, looks weak only if close below 59





Jindal Steel






Support at 109 and Resistance at 117

Above 117 rally remain continue till 121-123 and then to 129+ else could touch its support level of 109 again.

Below 109 it can touch 105 mark.


Trade with levels only.










More will update soon!!

Update on Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 26th April 2017





Nifty 9,306/Sensex 29,943 / Bank Nifty 22,054

38 Advances / 12 Declines/ 1 Unchanged


 Indian benchmarks end at record high; Nifty closes above 9300 for the first time 

Euphoric Indian equity indices showcased an impressive performance on Tuesday by conquering the crucial 9,300 (Nifty) and 29,900 (Sensex) levels as they got underpinned by a series of encouraging leads. Monday's optimism got spilled over into the Tuesday's session helping the local indices in extending the winning momentum for second successive session as encouraging global developments buttressed domestic sentiments. Investors continued to build hefty positions across the board as sentiments got a boost after a centrist victory in the first round of the French presidential election. Polls show Emmanuel Macron defeating anti-euro nationalist Marine Le Pen by as much as 30% points in the second round of the French presidential election in two weeks. Sentiments were also bolstered by a string of optimistic quarterly results including from Reliance Industries, which were announced yesterday post market hours. For the March quarter, RIL's consolidated net profit rose 12.3% to Rs 8,046 crore, against Rs 7,167 crore for the same period a year ago. Its turnover in the March quarter rose 45.2% year-on-year to Rs 92,889 crore, largely meeting street expectations for net profit. Further, investors’ sentiments remained buoyant with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley's statement that India will continue to grow at 7-8 per cent rate, an 'absolute normal' for the nation under the current global environment. Jaitley also said as far as the economy is concerned, all the decisions taken by the Modi-Government are consistently in one direction. Moreover, paving the way for July 1 roll out of the GST, the Bihar assembly in a special session unanimously passed the Goods and Services Tax Bill, 2017. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said the consensus on Goods and Services Tax (GST) reflects the spirit of 'one nation, one aspiration, one determination'. Meanwhile, banking stocks gained traction on the report that mutual fund managers continued to be bullish on bank shares, with their allocation to the sector reaching an all-time high of over Rs. 1.26 lakh crore at the end of March 2017. Also, Indian Bank has reported solid performance in January-March quarter as profit soared 3.4 times to Rs 319.7 crore compared with Rs 93.62 crore in year-ago quarter despite higher provisions. Net interest income, operating profit and tax credit boosted profitability.
On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly higher on Tuesday as European political risks faded and oil prices rebounded after six consecutive sessions of losses. A candidate seen as pro-business won the most votes on Sunday, and many investors expect him to win a runoff against the remaining anti-EU candidate, which is set for May 7, 2017. France's outgoing president, Francois Hollande, has urged voters to back centrist Macron in the second round of the election on May 7, warning that far-right leader Marine Le Pen would be a "massive risk" for the economy and jobs. However, investors are cautious as they kept an eye on North Korea, which is marking the 85th anniversary of the Korean People's Army on Tuesday, amid news that the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier-led battle group is nearing the Korean peninsula. Meanwhile, Safe-haven assets, including the yen and gold remained under pressure, while the Canadian dollar fell after the US announced new duties averaging 20% on Canadian softwood lumber imports. The Canadian currency tumbled to a four-month low as the US dollar strengthened 0.4 per cent to C$1.3554.

Back home, the local benchmark got off to a positive start in the morning trade as investors were largely influenced by the supportive leads from global markets. Thereafter, the frontline indices slowly and steadily started gathering steam and surged by over half a percent by late morning trades. Second half of the session saw the key gauges capitalize on the momentum further and spurt to session's highest levels in dying moments. Eventually the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, convalesced by close to a percent to settle above the crucial 9,300 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex accumulated close to three hundred points and closed above the psychological 29,900 mark. On the BSE sectoral space, hefty buying was evident across the board as not even a single sectoral index went home in the negative territory. Investors piled up hefty positions in the beaten down Telecom counter which rocketed by over two percent, while the FMCG index too showed strong gains and jumped by about two percent. While high beta sectors like - Realty, Oil & Gas and Energy too soared in the session.



FII’s Activity 25-April-17


The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4049.12 crore against gross selling of Rs 4276.01 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 226.89 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2075.60 crore with gross sales of Rs 292.52 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1783.08 crore in debt.


Now what to expect??






Nifty Levels





Mind blowing rally we have seen in last two trading session. 

Now what to expect???

Support at 9240 and Resistance at 9380---9450.

Above 9330 will see further upside rally till 9380---9450 mark else will it could test it's support level of 9240 again

Close below 9240 will take to 9180---9130 mark. Major support intact at 9080



Today's Top Pick


Mahindra Lifespace Developers







Yesterday we have seen sharp upside move in it and we expect rally to remain continue.

Support at 415 and Resistance at 435

Above 435 it can touch 455—470+++ mark in days to come. 

Looks weak only if closes below 415





Results Today



KPIT Technologies Limited

Axis Bank Limited















More will update soon!!

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 25th April. 17





Gold futures ended lower on Monday as polls showed centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron easily beating anti-EU stalwart Marine Le Pen in the May 7 French presidential election. Macron emerged as the top vote-getter in yesterday's first round of the French electoral process. A victory for Macron next month would likely mean the status quo for the EU and euro currency. However, some losses were capped as the dollar slipped against a basket of major currencies and simmering geopolitical tensions in North Korea and the Middle East.


Crude oil futures traded marginally lower on MCX as investors and speculators exited their positions in the energy commodity as traders lose confidence that pledged output cuts by major oil producers will rein in oversupply. Moreover, Russia hinted that its oil output could climb to the highest rate in 30 years if OPEC and non-OPEC producers do not extend a supply reduction deal beyond June 30.



Comex copper futures ended marginally higher on Monday, while London copper prices too rose as centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron's strong performance in the first round of the French presidential election boosted appetite for cyclical assets.






Technical Level


Gold 






Below 28900 panic remain continue till 28600---28450 mark.

Hurdle and stop loss above 28300.




Silver 







Support at 40600 and Resistance at 41400

Break and sustain below 40600 will take it to 40050—39800 mark, else could touch its resistance level of 41400 mark.

Further upside rally will see above 41400




Crude Oil 







Below 3195 panic remain continue till 3130—3080 mark in days to come.

Resistance and Stop loss above 3230

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3230


Natural Gas





Support at 202 and Resistance at 209

Break and sustain below 202 will take it to 196—193 and then to 189 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 209

Fresh buying can be initiated above 209



Copper 






Support at 360—356 and resistance at 368

Above 368 will take it to 371—373 and then to 378+ mark in days to come.

Else could touch its support level of 360—356 again.




Economic Data



07:30 P.M New Home Sales:  Previous 592K, Forecast 590K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in New Home Sales - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.


06:00 P.M CB Consumer Confidence:  Previous 125.6, Forecast 123.7, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in CB Consumer Confidence - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.














More will update soon!!