Agro Commodity Update (16th Feb-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean future prices fell yesterday mainly due to profit booking tracking noticed at higher level along with weak physical demand at this rate leads to disparity in meal prices for exports. According to data released by Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA), India exported 76,089 tn of oil meal in January, down 51% on year. But the export volume is higher by 69% for the period Apr-Jan at 10.14 lt. Last week, trade body, SOPA cuts soybean production by nearly 10 lakh tonnes to 83.5 lakh tonnes (lt) for 2017/18 crop. It now estimates, soy bean carryover stock is 13 lt, which is added to the crop size of 83.5 lt, thereby making the overall availability of the oilseed at 96.5 lt. Soybean stock with farmers, traders and mills is estimated at 45.32 lt as of January.
Chana Mar futures traded down in last couple of days tracking weak demand in physical market as traders are waiting for new season chana. There are reports of damage to chana crop in Maharashtra due to hail storm. Recently, to discourage imports, government raised import duty on chana to 40% from 30%. Still, futures have been trade below MSP. As per government sowing data, area under the chana crop across the country was up 8.3% on year at 107.2 lakh ha as on last week. Moreover, higher imports during the current financial year too pressurize prices. As per government data, India imported about 7.46 lt of chana during Apr-Nov, up by 200% compared the last year imports. The imports were mostly done from Australia.
Technical Aspect
Guar seed
Our sell call from 4580—4332 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is at 4300 and Resistance is 4450.
Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 4300 will see further downside fall till 4240—4150 and then to 4000 mark in near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 4450 mark
Trade with levels only.
Chana (March)
Our sell call from 3800—3725 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 3700 and Resistance is 3850
Panic likely to continue till 3700. Break and sustain below 3700 will take it towards 3630—3550 mark in near term
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 3850.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (April)
Support seen at 4050 and resistance is at 4200.
Break and sustain below 4050 will take it to 3970--3920 and then 3850 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 4150 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean (March)
Support seen at 3700 and Resistance is 3850.
Break and sustain below 3700 will take it towards 3630—3550 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 3850 mark.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 3850.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (March)
Support at 4050 and Resistance at 4150
Above 4150 rally likely to continue till 4230—4300 and then 4360++ mark else could touch its support level of 4050.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 4050.
Trade with levels only.
Cotton (March)
Support is 19800 and Resistance is 20200.
Below 19800 panic likely to continue till 19650—19500 and then 19320 mark in near term .
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 20200.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera (March)
Support seen at 15800 and Resistance is at 16350
Below 15800 panic likely to continue till 15550—15300 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 16350 mark.
Fresh buying only can be seen above 16350 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Apr)
Support is 7200 while Resistance is 7350
Break and sustain below 7200 will take it towards 7040—6900 and then 6750 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 7350.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7350.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (March)
Support seen at 572 while Resistance is 585.
Buy and accumulate as its likely to be a safe bet in near term. Break and sustain above 585 will take it towards 594—608 mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 572 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More Will update Soon!!!!
