Agro Commodity Update (14th Feb-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Cotton future prices traded higher supported by improved physical demand and firm International prices. Cotton prices this season have been supported on reports of lower than expected production estimates. USDA in its monthly report trimmed cotton production for the 4th consecutive month in India by 2.73% to 28.5 million bales in its February report. Moreover, Cotton production in India in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) is likely to miss the government's estimate of 322 lakh bales by 7-8% due to pest attack in large areas across Maharashtra and Telangana. ICE cotton futures also gained in past couple of days, supported by strong weekly export sales data from the USDA offset a slightly bearish monthly supply-demand report. USDA's weekly export sales data on Thursday showed exports totalled 432,500 running bales for the week ended Feb. 1, a marketing-year high, up 42% from the previous week and 56% from the prior four-week average.
Jeera future prices witnessed a sell off from higher levels due to fresh selling initiated by the market participants. Market is expecting higher production and start of new season arrivals in coming weeks may pressurize prices in near term. The new season arrivals are expected to pick up in next 15-20 days. Jeera production may be higher in coming season on reports of higher acreage of cumin in Gujarat during current season. In Gujarat, Jeera acreage is noted up by 38% to 3.83 lakh hectares as on 15-Jan-18. Last year, it was 2.88 lakh ha at that same time. As per the latest estimate of government data, Jeera exports during first 8 month of FY 2017-18 (Apr-Nov) is 98,681 tonnes, up 15% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in November increase by 60% on year to 10,451 tn.
Technical Aspect
Guar seed
Support is at 4400 and Resistance is 4550.
Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 4400 will take it towards 4330—4250 mark in near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 4550 marks.
Trade with levels only.
Chana (March)
Support is 3750 and Resistance is 3920
Break and sustain above 3920 will take it towards 4000—4060 mark in near term else could touch its support of 3750.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 3750.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (April)
Support seen at 4050 and resistance is at 4200.
Panic likely to continue till 4050. Break and close below 4050 will take it towards 3960--3900 and then 3840 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated on close above 4150 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean (March)
Support seen at 3750 and Resistance is 3900.
Rally likely to continue till 3900. Break and sustain above 3900 will take it towards 3980---4050 and then 4200 mark.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 3750 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (March)
Support at 4150 and Resistance at 4280
Below 4150 panic likely to continue till 4080—4000 and then 3950 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4280.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 4280.
Trade with levels only.
Cotton (March)
Support is 19900 and Resistance is 20400.
Trading in a range. Either side break or close will set further trend in it.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera (March)
Support seen at 16000 and Resistance is at 16400
Break and sustain below 16000 will see sharp downside panic till 15750--15500 and then 15350 mark.
Fresh buying only can be seen above 16400 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Apr)
Support is 7200 while Resistance is 7400
Rally likely to continue till 7400. Break and sustain above 7400 will take it towards 7580—7700 and then 7850 mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 7200.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (March)
Support seen at 570 while Resistance is 581.
Buy and accumulate as its likely to be a safe bet in near term. Break and sustain above 581 will take it towards 587—594 mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 570 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More Will Update Soon!!!!
