Agro Commodity Update (12th Feb-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean settled the week sharply higher after trade body cuts soybean production by nearly 10 lakh tones to 83.5 lakh tones (lt) for 2017-18 crop. According to latest estimates of SOPA, soy bean carryover stock is noted 13 lt, which is added to the crop size of 83.5 lt, thereby making the overall availability of the oilseed at 96.5 lt. Between October 2017 and January 2018, the overall arrivals stood at 53 lt, with crushing of 38 lt, direct use of 1.18 lt and meal exports of 7.05 lt. Soybean stock with farmers, traders and mills is estimated at 45.32 lt as of January. However, monthly USDA report was marked a bit bearish for the soybean as USDA raised its forecast of U.S. soybean stocks by 12.8% to 14.4mt (Vs 12.8 mt in Jan 18). The USDA reported 743,223 tones of old crop soybean export sales during the week of 2/1, was more than double last week’s sales and 61.4% larger than this week last year. As per USDA monthly report, Brazil production was increased 2 to 112 mt, while Argentina production to drop to 54 mt from 56 mt forecasted in the earlier month.
Mentha Oil futures prices traded sharply lower due to increase arrival in the major spot markets of Uttar Pradesh. As per the trader source, there is currently not much demand for menthe oil from the domestic consuming industries as well as stockists. From export front, there is no expectation of any positive development in the recent times. Due to the increased production and usage of synthetic mentha in the recent years, demand for natural mentha has decreased. As on 05th February 2018 stock positions of mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 3629 drums which is 72 drums less in comparison to previous day.
Technical Aspect
Guar seed (March)
Support is at 4400 and Resistance is 4550.
Looks weak on chart and likely to touch 4400. Break and sustain below 4400 will take it towards 4320—4250 mark in near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 4550 marks.
Trade with levels only.
Chana (March)
Support is 3800 and Resistance is 3920
Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 3800 mark. Break and sustain below 3800 will take it to 3730—3650 and then 3500 mark.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 3920 mark.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (April)
Support seen at 4050 and resistance is at 4150.
Break and close above 4150 will take it towards 4230--4300 and then 4360++ mark.
Fresh selling can be initiated on close below 4050 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean (March)
Our buy call from 3550—3831 has proven great
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 3700 and Resistance is 3900.
Rally likely to continue till 3900. Break and sustain above 3900 will take it towards 4020---4100++ mark.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 3700 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (March)
Support at 4050 and Resistance at 4250
Trading in a range. Either side break or close will set further trend in it.
Trade with levels only.
Cotton
Our buy call from 20050—20300 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 19850 and Resistance is 20350.
Above 20350 rally likely to continue towards 20650--20900 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 19800 mark.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 19800 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera (March)
Support seen at 16300 and Resistance is at 16750
Looks weak on chart. Break and sustain below 16300 will see sharp downside panic till 16050--15800 and then 15550 mark.
Fresh buying only can be seen above 16750 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Apr)
Support is 7150 while Resistance is 7400
Looks positive on chart. Break and sustain above 7400 will take it towards 7580—7700 and then 7850 mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 7150.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support seen at 565 and Resistance is 580.
Buy and accumulate as it’s likely to be a safe bet in near term. Break and sustain above 580 will take it towards 588—594 mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 562 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More Will Update soon!!
