Agri Commodity Update (4th-Jan-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean futures prices rises for the third consecutive day as supported by physical demand has improved while the supplies have been diminishing day by day. The arrivals have been lower during December as compared with the last year. Total 7.82 lakh tonnes of soybean arrived in physical market in December against close to 8.6 lt noted last year for the same time period.
SOPA increased its meal exports estimates for 2017/18 due to increased export incentives by 2% to 7% by government for all meals. Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) are seen rising to around 20 lakh tn from previous estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives.
Guar seed futures prices witnessed a smart recovery at the beginning of 2018 supported by improved demand from guar gum producers. Strong cues in spot market reflected at futures platform prompted speculators to cover short positions in near month contract of guar seed. Weaker supply prospects for guar would be the major reason to keep prices higher in long term. Production is expected to fall substantially in Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat. The marketing year 2017-18 will be starting with 38% Y/Y lower carry forward stock as sell off was witnessed in the year 2016-17 due to implementation of GST and production in the upcoming season is estimated to fall by 33% and both these factors are likely to push up the prices. Total stock position of guar seed and gum at NCDEX warehouses were reported at 26188 MT and 22735 MT respectively as on 12th Dec. Total arrivals of guar were reported at 25300 bags at major trading centres across Rajasthan.
Technical Aspect (Jan)
Turmeric (Apr)
Support seen at 7550 and Resistance is 7800.
Looks weak on chart. Sell on every rise till 7800 as it’s likely to hit 7550. Break and sustain below 7550 will take it towards 7420—7350 and then 7200 mark in near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7800 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Support seen at 21300 and Resistance is at 21750.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 21300 and likely to hit 21750. Break and sustain above 21750 will take it towards 21980—22200 and then 22450++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated only on close below 21300.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4250 and Resistance at 4320.
Looks weak on chart. Break and close below 4250 will take it towards 4205—4160 and then 4100 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4400 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guarseed
Support is at 4050 and Resistance is 4180.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 4180 mark. Break and close above 4180 will take it towards 4240 --4300 and then 4380++ mark.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 4050 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Support is 3950 and Resistance is 4100.
Looks positive on chart. Likely to hit 4100. Break and close above 4100 will take it towards 4160—4230 and then 4300++ mark in near term.
Support will remain at 3950 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 3850 and resistance is at 3980.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 3850 as it’s likely to touch 3980 mark. Break and close above 3980 will take it towards 4030—4100 and then 4160++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3850 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2980 and Resistance is 3120.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 2980 and likely to hit 3120. Break and sustain above 3120 will take it towards 3180—3250 and then 3330++ mark in coming days.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 2980 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soy Refined
Our buy call from 721---735 has proven great
Now what to expect?
Support is 728 and Resistance is 738.
Looks positive on chart. Break and sustain above 738 will take it towards 743—747 and then 752++ mark in near term.
Support and stop loss will remain at 728 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support seen at 558 while Resistance is 570.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 558 as we expect near term positive sentiment in it. Likely to hit 570 mark soon. Close above 570 will see a new bull run in it.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 558 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
