Agri Commodity Update (8th-Jan-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Guar prices are likely to trade on firm note today may track brisk buying by guar gum producers. Improving crude oil prices and better export outlook of gum could reflect as strong price rally during today session. Guar gum producers have improved their buying activities in view of increasing overseas demand of gum wherein arrivals have been shrinking gradually below to 25000 bags. Farmers are avoiding bulk selling in anticipation of better price realization as overall production for year 2017-18 is expected to fall remarkably.
Overall gum export for year 2017-18 has been higher by 54% y/y till Sept as India exported about 252568 tonnes of gum till Sept,2017 since April,2017 vs 163958 tonnes for the corresponding period of last year. Most of the Industry players have cut their production estimates for guar due to uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall in guar growing region and pegged near about 40-50 lakh tonnes.
Soybean prices showed strong recovery in last couple of days as supported by improving physical demand from spot market. Moreover, the supplies have been diminishing slowly in the physical market. The arrivals have been lower during December compared to last year. As per the trader source, 7.82 lakh tonnes of soybean arrived in physical market in December against close to 8.6 lt noted last year for the same time period. SOPA increased its meal exports estimates for 2017-18 due to increased export incentives by 2% to 7% by government for all meals. Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) are seen rising to around 20 lakh tn from previous estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives.
Technical Aspect (Feb)
Turmeric (Apr)
Our sell call from 7800-7450 has proven great
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 7450 and Resistance is 7650.
Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 7450 will take it towards 7330—7260 and then 7100 in near term else could touch its resistance level of 7650.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7650 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Our sell call from 21300-20920 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 20900 and Resistance is at 21300.
Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 20900 will take it towards 20650—20200 levels.
Fresh buying can be initiated only on close above 21300.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Feb)
Support at 4300 and Resistance at 4380.
Looks positive and likely to hit 4380. Break and close above 4380 will confirm bottom out here for the next upside levels of 4450—4520 mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4300 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guarseed (Feb)
Our buy call from 4180—4280 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is at 4230 and Resistance is 4350.
Rally likely to continue. Break and close above 4350 will take it towards 4430 --4500 and then 4580++ mark.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 4230.
Trade with levels only.
Chana (March)
Support is 3700 and Resistance is 3900.
Trading in a range. Either side break and close will set the further trend in it.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed (April)
Support seen at 4050 and resistance is at 4200.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 4050 as it’s likely to touch 4200 mark. Break and close above 4200 will take it towards 4270—4350 and then 4420++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4050 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3150 and Resistance is 3250.
Rally likely to continue till 3250. Break and sustain above 3250 will take it towards 3330—3400 and then 3450++ mark in coming days.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 3150 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soy Refined (Feb)
Support is 734 and Resistance is 748.
Rally likely to continue till 748. Break and sustain above 748 will take it towards 753—757 and then 764++ mark in near term.
Support and stop loss will remain at 734 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support seen at 558 while Resistance is 570.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 558 as we expect near term positive sentiment in it. Likely to hit 570 mark soon. Close above 570 will see a new bull run in it.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 558 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
