Agri Commodity Update (3rd -Jan-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Guar seed futures prices witnessed a smart recovery at the beginning of 2018 supported by improved demand from guar gum producers. Strong cues in spot market reflected at futures platform prompted speculators to cover short positions in near month contract of guar seed. Weaker supply prospects for guar would be the major reason to keep prices higher in long term. Production is expected to fall substantially in Rajasthan, Haryana and Gujarat. The marketing year 2017-18 will be starting with 38% Y/Y lower carry forward stock as sell off was witnessed in the year 2016-17 due to implementation of GST and production in the upcoming season is estimated to fall by 33% and both these factors are likely to push up the prices. Total stock position of guar seed and gum at NCDEX warehouses were reported at 26188 MT and 22735 MT respectively as on 12th Dec. Total arrivals of guar were reported at 25300 bags at major trading centres across Rajasthan.
MCX Dec Cotton settled the session lower tracking weak cues from global market and expected increase in arrivals in the domestic market. There is expectation of fall in domestic output due to pink boll worm attacks and fluctuating weather conditions during cotton sowing season in major cotton sowing states. However, based on the healthy market arrival trend of cotton so far, the Cotton Association of India (CAI) has maintained the crop size for the 2017-18 season at 375 lakh bales (of 170 kg each) in its latest estimates.* The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported its exports of 276,700 running bales for the week ended Dec. 21, a marketing year high, which was up 87 percent from the previous week.
Technical Aspect (Jan)
Turmeric (Apr)
Support seen at 7650 and Resistance is 7900.
Buy and accumulate more in panic till 7650 as it looks positive in near term till 7900. Break and sustain above 7900 will take it towards 8030—8150 and then 8300++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 7650 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Support seen at 21350 and Resistance is at 21800.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 21350 and likely to hit 21800. Break and sustain above 21800 will take it towards 22050—22300 and then 22450++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated only on close below 21350.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4250 and Resistance at 4400.
Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 4250. Break and close below 4250 will take it towards 4205—4160 and then 4100 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4400 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guarseed
Support is at 4050 and Resistance is 4180.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 4180 mark. Break and close above 4180 will take it towards 4240 --4300 and then 4380++ mark.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 4050 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Support is 3850 and Resistance is 4050.
Trading in a ranges. Either side break or close will set the further trend in it.
Support will remain at 3950 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 3850 and resistance is at 4000.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 3850 as it’s likely to touch 4000 mark. Break and close above 4000 will take it towards 4070—4130 and then 4200++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3850 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2980 and Resistance is 3120.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 2980 and likely to hit 3120. Break and sustain above 3120 will take it towards 3180—3250 and then 3330++ mark in coming days.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 2980 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soy Refined
Our buy call from 721---730 has proven great
Now what to expect?
Support is 718 and Resistance is 732.
Looks positive on chart. Buy and accumulate more on decline as it’s likely to hit 732. Break and sustain above 732 will take it towards 737—741 and then 745++ mark in near term.
Support and stop loss will remain at 718 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support seen at 552 while Resistance is 565.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 552 as we expect near term positive sentiment in it. Likely to hit 565 mark. Close above 565 will see a new bull run in it.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 552 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
