Agri Commodity Update (9th-Jan-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Refined Soy oil contract traded positive due to improved demand from bulk buyers before the festival season starts. The prices were under pressure last fortnight due to higher stocks in the country and sufficient stocks in the pipeline amid improved domestic crushing and higher imports in November. The government has slashed the base import price of all edible oils. For soy soil the base import prices were cut by $19 per ton to $813 for the first fortnight of Jan 2018. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association, India vegetable oil imports rises by 6% on year to 12.5 lakh tonnes in November. Soy oil imports surged by 66.7% in November to 2.74 lt compared to 1.64 lt last year.
Guar prices are likely to maintain its firm note due to brisk buying by guar gum producers. Improving crude oil prices and better export outlook of gum could reflect as strong price rally during today session. Guar gum producers have improved their buying activities in view of increasing overseas demand of gum wherein arrivals have been shrinking gradually below to 25000 bags. Farmers are avoiding bulk selling in anticipation of better price realization as overall production for year 2017-18 is expected to fall remarkably.
Overall gum export for year 2017-18 has been higher by 54% y/y till Sept as India exported about 252568 tonnes of gum till Sept,2017 since April,2017 vs 163958 tonnes for the corresponding period of last year. Most of the Industry players have cut their production estimates for guar due to uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall in guar growing region and pegged near about 40-50 lakh tonnes.
Technical Aspect (Feb)
Turmeric (Apr)
Our sell call from 7800---7450 has proven great
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 7450 and Resistance is 7800.
Break and sustain below 7450 will take it towards 7300—7200 and then 7100 in near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7800 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Support seen at 20700 and Resistance is at 21300.
Panic likely to continue till 20700. Break and sustain below 20700 will take it towards 20450—20200 levels.
Fresh buying can be initiated only on close above 21300.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Feb)
Our sell call from 4305—4200 has proven great.
Now what to expect???
Support at 4150 and Resistance at 4350.
Looks weak on chart and likely to hit 4150. Break and close below 4150 will take it towards 4080—4030 and then to 3950 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4350 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Feb)
Our buy call from 4230—4420 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is at 4250 and Resistance is 4450.
Rally likely to continue. Break and close above 4450 will take it towards 4530 --4600 and then 4650++ mark.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 4250.
Trade with levels only.
Chana (March)
Support is 3700 and Resistance is 3900.
Trading in a range. Either side break or close will set the further trend in it.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed (April)
Support seen at 4050 and resistance is at 4200.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 4050 as it’s likely to touch 4200 mark. Break and close above 4200 will take it towards 4270—4350 and then 4420++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4050 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3150 and Resistance is 3280.
Break and sustain above 3280 will take it towards 3340—3380 and then 3450 mark in coming days.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 3150 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soy Refined (Feb)
Support is 734 and Resistance is 748.
Rally likely to continue till 748. Break and sustain above 748 will take it towards 753—757 and then 764++ mark in near term.
Support and stop loss will remain at 734 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Feb)
Support seen at 558 while Resistance is 572.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 558 as we expect near term positive sentiment in it.
Likely to hit 572 mark soon. Close above 572 will see a new bull run in it.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 558 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
