Agri Commodity Update (5th-Jan-2018)
Fundamental Aspect:
Firmness in guar is likely to remain intact in coming days as speculators may enlarge long positions in next month contract in view of better demand outlook. Improving crude oil prices and better export outlook of gum could reflect as strong price rally during today session. Moreover, strengthening churi and corma prices are likely to prompt guar gum producers to increase their buying activities. Guar gum producers have improved their buying activities in view of increasing overseas demand of gum wherein arrivals have been shrinking gradually below to 25000 bags. Farmers are avoiding bulk selling in anticipation of better price realization as overall production for year 2017-18 is expected to fall remarkably.
Overall gum export for year 2017-18 has been higher by 54% y/y till Sept as India exported about 252568 tonnes of gum till Sept,2017 since April,2017 vs 163958 tonnes for the corresponding period of last year. Most of the Industry players have cut their production estimates for guar due to uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall in guar growing region and pegged near about 40-50 lakh tonnes.
Jeera prices traded with negative bias due to profit booking by market participants tracking weak physical demand. However, it traded positive in last week tracking improved physical demand coupled with lower arrivals in physical market. Jeera arrivals in Dec down by 55.6% to 3,304 tonnes on year due to tight supplies and lower stocks with the stockists. Moreover, good progress of jeera sowing in Gujarat pressurizes prices earlier in the week. As per government data, Jeera exports during first seven month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Sep) is 88,229 tonnes, up 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in October increase by 37% on year to 10,402 tn. In Gujarat, Jeera acreage is up by 35% to 3.5 lakh hectares as on 18th Dec 2017.
Technical Aspect (Jan)
Turmeric (Apr)
Our sell call from 7800-7508 has proven great
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 7450 and Resistance is 7700.
Panic likely to continue till 7450.Break and sustain below 7450 will take it towards 7350—7260 and then 7100 in near term else could touch its resistance level of 7700.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 7700 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Our sell call from 21300-21030 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 20900 and Resistance is at 21400.
Panic likely to continue till 20900 .Break and sustain below 20900 will take it towards 20650—20200 levels.
Fresh buying can be initiated only on close above 21400.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4250 and Resistance at 4320.
Looks weak on chart. Break and close below 4250 will take it towards 4205—4160 and then 4100 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4400 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guarseed
Support is at 4100 and Resistance is 4220.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 4220 mark. Break and close above 4220 will take it towards 4270 --4330 and then 4400++ mark.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 4100.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our buy call from 4000-4100 has proven great
Now what to expect?
Support is 4000 and Resistance is 4150.
Rally likely to continue till 4150. Break and close above 4150 will take it towards 4230—4300 and then 4360++ mark in near term.
Support will remain at 4000 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 3850 and resistance is at 3980.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 3850 as it’s likely to touch 3980 mark. Break and close above 3980 will take it towards 4030—4100 and then 4160++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3850 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3040 and Resistance is 3150.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 3040 and likely to hit 3150. Break and sustain above 3150 will take it towards 3190—3240 and then 3300++ mark in coming days.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 3040 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soy Refined
Our buy call from 721---738.9 has proven great
Now what to expect?
Support is 730 and Resistance is 742.
Rally likely to continue till 742. Break and sustain above 742 will take it towards 747—752 and then 757++ mark in near term.
Support and stop loss will remain at 730 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support seen at 558 while Resistance is 570.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 558 as we expect near term positive sentiment in it. Likely to hit 570 mark soon. Close above 570 will see a new bull run in it.
Fresh selling only can be initiated below 558 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
