Agri Commodity Update (14th-Dec-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean futures traded marginally lower from last couple of week on renewed selling initiated by the market participants tracking spot prices. However, the trend looks positive due to reports of good physical demand as Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) increased its estimates of meal exports for 2017-18. Moreover, earlier government has increased export incentives by 2% for all meals. As per the latest release of SOPA, Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) noted a rise of around 20 lakh tn against previous estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives.
There is expectation for rain this weekend in dry areas of Argentina, the world's top soymeal exporter. A Brazilian oilseed processors association, raised its crop estimate to 109.5 mt, from 108.8 MT previously. The USDA raised its forecast of U.S. 2017-18 soybean ending stocks to 12.12 mt, from 11.75 MT last month, after cutting its U.S. soy export forecast due to strong competition from South American producers. World soybean production is cut slightly to 348.5 mt from 348.9 mt.
Jeera prices jumped sharply higher on renewed buying by the market participants on reports of record deliveries allocations on exchange platform. The market is cautious at higher levels on good progress of jeera sowing in Gujarat. In Gujarat, jeera acreage up by 37.4% to 3.1 lakh ha this year compared to 2.3 lakh ha last year as on 11th Dec. As per the latest government data, Jeera exports during first six month of FY 2017-18 (Apr-Sep) is noted at 77,827 tonnes, up 8.4% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Sep increase 110% on year to 14,742 tn. Jeera arrivals for the first 10 days of Dec noted down by 60% to 906.7 tonnes on year due to tight supplies and lower stocks.
Technical Aspect (Jan)
Turmeric (Apr)
Support seen at 7250 and Resistance is 7500.
Looks positive and likely to touch 7500.Buy and accumulate more on decline till 7250 and its likely to touch 7500.Break and sustain above 7500 will see more upside in it.
Fresh selling only can be seen only close below 7250 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Support seen at 21700 and Resistance is at 22050.
Looks positive on Chart. Break and sustain above 22050 will take it towards 22450—22700 and then 23200++ mark in near term.
Fresh Selling can be seen on close below 21700 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4450 and Resistance at 4560.
Looks weak on chart. Sell on every rise till 4560.Break and sustain below 4450 will take it towards 4410—4360 and then 4250 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4560 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed
Support is at 3750 and Resistance is 3880.
Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 3750 will take it towards 3705—3672 and then 3620 mark in near term else could touch its resistance of 3880 mark.
Hurdle and stop loss will remain at 3880 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our sell call from 4480—3977 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 3950 and Resistance is 4100.
Panic likely to continue till 3950. Break and sustain below 3950 will take it towards 3880—3820 and then 3750 mark in near term.
Take cautionary approach at lower levels.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 3950 and resistance is at 4050.
Looks weak on chart. Sell on every rise till 4050 and likely to touch 3950. Break and close below 3950 will take it towards 3880—3830 and then 3750 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4050 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2950 and Resistance is 3090---3165.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 2950. We expect uptrend in the medium term till 3090. Break and sustain above 3090 will take it towards 3130—3165 and then 3230++ mark in coming days.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 2950 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soy Refined
Support is 724 and Resistance is 732.
Break and close above 732 will take it towards 737—741 and then 748++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 724 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Dec)
Our buy call from 556—566.90 proven great
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 556 while Resistance is 570.
Looks positive on chart. Buy and accumulate more on decline and its likely to touch 570 soon. Break and sustain above 570 will see a new bullish era in the near term.
Support and stop loss will remain at below 556 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!!
