Agro Commodity Update (08th-Dec-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Guar futures prices traded lower form last couple of days due to technical selling from the higher levels. However, most of the fundamentals are still supportive for prices as significant fall in production during year 2017-18 could spur speculators to buy guar with every correction in prices. Supply deficit outlook for year 2017-18 and good domestic and overseas demand of guar and its derived products is likely to provide a good opportunity to buy on dip which may keep prices mostly higher in near term. Moreover, expanding drilling activities in US may boost up the export demand of guar gum which is used for Oil well drilling and fracturing purposes. Overall gum export for year 2017-18 has been noted higher by 54% y/y till Sept as India exported about 252568 tonnes of gum till Sept,2017 since April,2017 vs 163958 tonnes for the corresponding period of last year. Daily arrivals at major trading centres in Rajasthan have dropped to 35-40 thousand bags and expected to fall further in coming days.
Jeera futures prices likely to trade lower for the day on profit booking from the lifetime high levels. Further, good sowing progress of jeera as per expectations due to higher market prices may weigh down the sentiment of its prices. However, likely chances of drop in supplies in the coming days due to lower carryover stock may support prices to trade higher. Further good domestic as well as export demand may create active buying activities at major spot market, which is also supportive for jeera futures to trade higher in near term. Cyclone Ockhi is likely to weaken as per IMD.
Technical Aspect (Jan)
Turmeric (Apr)
Support seen at 7250 and Resistance is 7500.
Rally likely to continue. Weekly close above 7500 will take it towards 7580—7650 and then 7800++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be seen only close below 7250 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Support seen at 21450 and Resistance is at 21980.
Correction likely to continue from higher level but we expect “U” turn in it soon. Buy and accumulate more on decline and its likely to touch 21980. Weekly close above 21980 will take it towards 22350—22500 and then 22780++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 21450 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4450 and Resistance at 4650.
Looks weak on chart and likely to touch 4450. Break and sustain below 4450 will take it to towards 4380—4330 and then 4250 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4650 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4650 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guarseed
Our sell call from 3870—3821 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is at 3820 and Resistance is 3900.
Panic likely to continue. Weekly close below 3820 will take it towards 3760—3720 and then 3650 mark in near term.
Hurdle and stop loss will remain at 3900 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our sell call from 4480—4342 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 4320 and Resistance is 4480.
Panic likely to continue. Weekly close below 4320 will take it towards 4250—4180 and then 4050 mark in near term.
Hurdle and stop loss will remain at 4550 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 4000 and resistance is at 4150.
Buy and accumulate on decline till 4000 and it’s likely to touch 4150 in near term. Break and close above 4150 will take it towards 4230—4300 and then 4360++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4000 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3080 and Resistance is 3165.
Buy and accumulate more on decline till 3080. We expect, prices likely to trade higher in the medium term. Break and close above 3165 will take it towards 3230—3270 and then 3350++ mark in near term.
Support and stop loss will remain at 3080 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soy Refined
Support is 724 and Resistance is 735.
Looks weak on chart and likely to touch 724. Weekly close below 724 will take it towards 719—713 and then 705 mark in near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen above 735 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Dec)
Our sell call from 572—567 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 558 while Resistance is 575.
Panic likely to continue till 558. Break and close below 558 will see a new bearish phase in the near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen on close above 575 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!!
