Agri Commodity Update (13th-Dec-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean futures traded lower for the third consecutive days mainly on renewed selling initiated by the market participants tracking spot prices. However, the trend looks positive due to reports of good physical demand as Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) increased its estimates of meal exports for 2017-18. Moreover, earlier government has increased export incentives by 2% for all meals. As per the latest release of SOPA, Soymeal exports from the country in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) noted a rise of around 20 lakh tn against previous estimate of 15 lakh tn due to a recent rise in export incentives.
USDA Export Inspections report showed 1.230 mt in exports during week of 12/7. That was a drop of 31.78% from the week prior and 33.31% behind this time a year ago. The USDA is expected to increase the 17-18 US ending stocks number for soybeans 15 mbu to 440 mbu.
Chana traded persistently lower due to improved sowing progress coupled with higher stocks in the country due to record imports. As per the latest government data, India imported about 4.78 lakh tonnes of chana during April-Sep, up by 430% compared the last year imports. As per government sowing data, area under the rabi chana crop across the country was up 10.25% on year at 89.6 lakh ha as on last week.
The National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange have imposed a special margin of 5% on the sell side in all running and yet to be launched chana contracts effective from today as chana is trading below the minimum support price for the third consecutive day .
Technical Aspect (Jan)
Turmeric (Apr)
Support seen at 7250 and Resistance is 7500.
Looks positive and likely to touch 7500.Buy and accumulate more on decline till 7250 and its likely to touch 7500.Break and sustain above 7500 will see more upside in it.
Fresh selling only can be seen only close below 7250 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Support seen at 21200 and Resistance is at 22050.
Buy and accumulate more on decline as it looks positive on chart and likely to touch 22050. Break and sustain above 22050 will take it towards 22450—22700 and then 23200++ mark in near term.
Fresh Selling can be seen on close below 21200 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4500 and Resistance at 4620.
Looks positive on chart. Break and sustain above 4620 will take it towards 4680—4750 and then 4850++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4500 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed
Support is at 3750 and Resistance is 3880.
Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 3750 will take it towards 3705—3672 and then 3620 mark in near term else could touch its resistance of 3880 mark.
Hurdle and stop loss will remain at 3880 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our sell call from 4480—4026 has proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 4020 and Resistance is 4150.
We expect sharp recovery from here towards 4150. Break and sustain above 4150 will take it towards 4230—4300 and then 4420++ mark in near term.
Take cautionary approach at lower levels.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 3950 and resistance is at 4050.
Looks weak on chart and likely to touch 3950. Break and close below 3950 will take it towards 3880—3830 and then 3750 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4050 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3050 and Resistance is 3165.
If prices unable to break and sustain 3165 then we can expect sharp downside panic in it from higher level till 3050. Break and sustain below 3050 will take it towards 3010—2960 and then 2850 mark in coming days.
Fresh buying can be seen on close above 3165 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soy Refined
Support is 724 and Resistance is 735.
Break and close above 735 will take it towards 739—744 and then 752++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 724 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Dec)
Our buy call from 556—566.90 proven great
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 556 while Resistance is 570.
Looks positive on chart. Buy and accumulate more on decline and its likely to touch 570 soon. Break and sustain above 570 will see a new bullish era in the near term.
Support and stop loss will remain at below 556 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!!
