Agro Commodity Update (1st December 2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Mentha oil future traded near the 1800+ mark with profit booking activity marked at the higher levels. However, sentiments continued to remain firm. Fundamentals remained strong with stable export and domestic demand boosted the sentiment of its prices. Rising export demand from Pharmacy industries are more supporting factors. Recent imposition of 20% additional margin on the buy side limited the upside last week. As per the Spice Board of India, 21150 MT of mint products valued at 2577.59 Cr were exported in FY 16. This was 15.87% higher in value terms of the total products exported. This year farmers are not having sufficient stocks and this too keeps the Mentha market bullish. Last year, the country had produced 35000 metric tons. This year, traders are expecting a crop size of nearly 25000-30,000 MT. Trade sources estimate that total area under Mentha planting has dropped by 20% to 1.75 lakh ha this season resulting into a proportionate fall in Mentha oil production this year. As per industry estimates, global production is noted at 48000 tons while, Indian production generally noted at 38,000 tones, which is expected to drop this year.
Chana futures traded sharply lower on profit booking at higher level but traded positive last week as the market participants tracking firm trend in physical market. Recently, government removed export curbs on all varieties of pulses to ensure farmers get remunerative prices as domestic rates have crashed below MSP in view of record production. Earlier, Chana was pressured by good start to rabi sowing and higher stock levels in the country. Moreover, government which is sitting on a buffer stock of 18 lakh tonnes is set to dispose of 5 lt pulses by March next year will ease prices in domestic market.. As per the latest government sowing data, chana is planted in 69.7 lakh ha as on 17 Nov, up by 38% compared to 43.9 lakh ha noted last year. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt.
Technical Aspect (Dec)
Turmeric
Our buy call from 7250 –7896 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 7650 and Resistance is 7900
Looks positive on chart. Traders can accumulate more on decline till 7650. Weekly close above 7900 will take it towards 8050—8200 and then 8350++mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be seen on close below 7650 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Our buy call from 19300—22125 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 21500 and Resistance is at 22150.
Rally likely to continue till 22150. Weekly close above 22150 will take it towards 22400—22760 and then 22900++mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 21500 marks.
Trade safely with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4500 and Resistance at 4650.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 4650. Buy and accumulate more on decline. Weekly close above 4650 will take it to towards 4720—4780 and then 4850++ mark else could touch its support level of 4520 mark.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4500 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guarseed
Support is at 3820 and Resistance is 3950.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 3950. Weekly close above 3950 will take it towards 4020—4090 and then 4150++ mark in near term.
Support will remain at 3820 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our sell call from 4850—4702 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 4650 and Resistance is 4900
Panic likely to continue till 4650. Weekly close below 4650 will take it towards 4580—4530 and then 4450 mark in near term.
Major upside will be seen only on close above 4900 mark.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Our buy call from 3950—4182 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 4050 and Resistance is 4150.
Looks positive on chart. Weekly close above 4150 will take it towards 4220—4270 and then 4350++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4050 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2920 and Resistance is 3050.
If prices unable to breach and close below 2920 then we can see good upside in it near term towards 3050. Buy and accumulate more on decline .Break and close above 3050 will take it towards 3120—3170 and then 3230++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 2920 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soy Refined
Support is 728 and Resistance is 738.
Either side break and close will set the further direction in it.
Fresh selling only can be seen below 728 mark on closing basis .
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support seen at 575 while Resistance is 590.
Trading in range. Either side break or close will set the further trend in it. Traders can take advantage of range bound trading with the validation of above mentioned levels.
Fresh selling can be seen on close below 575 marks.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!!
