Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels, Derivative Outlook and Equity Pick of the day 30th Nov 2017
Nifty 10361 /Sensex 33602/ Bank Nifty 25795
23 Advances / 27 Declines/ 0 Unchanged
Benchmarks end slightly in red on penultimate session of F&O expiry
Indian equity benchmarks ended the choppy day of trade with marginal losses, as traders remained on sidelines ahead of November derivatives expiry and release of September-quarter GDP data tomorrow. Sentiments also remained dampened with a private report stating that both goods and services tax (GST) collections as well as its compliance in the first four months since the rollout of the new tax regime remain well be below the target, and the situation is unlikely to improve in the near- term. Though, markets kept their head above water for most part of the day’s trade with traders taking some encouragement with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement who called upon entrepreneurs from across the globe to make India their base for the world. He said that India has emerged as one of the fastest-growing economies and a happening place with immense opportunities in a number of areas. Some support also came with Meanwhile, Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas, Dharmendra Pradhan made a strong case for inclusion of natural gas in the GST, saying that if polluting coal can be included, then the environment-friendly fuel certainly deserves a place in the new regime.
However, profit booking in dying hour of trade dragged markets below their neutral lines to end with modest losses. Sentiments turned pessimistic with a foreign brokerage firm lowering India’s GDP growth forecast for current fiscal to 6.6 percent from the previous 6.8 percent, citing that businesses were still adjusting to the new GST regime and there was limited room for fiscal support. Inflation is expected to edge up on higher commodity prices and stronger demand momentum, whilst the current account and fiscal deficits run the risk of re-widening. Besides, reports that the Reserve Bank of India is likely to leave interest rates unchanged at its December policy meeting and through the end of next year, too weighed sentiments.
Also, overseas caution prevailed over the latest missile test by North Korea and softness in Chinese shares hit Asian markets. The European markets were trading mostly in green, while Britain’s FTSE fell, lagging a broad-based rebound in European shares as reports of a breakthrough in Brexit talks lifted sterling, hurting the internationally exposed index.
Back home, realty stocks firmed up on the back of an improvement in affordability, and multiple developments on the policy initiatives front. The government has recently increased the area of a unit on which a first time buyer can avail benefits under the Credit Link Subsidy Scheme (CLSS) scheme of the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojna (PMAY). Stocks related to insurance sector remained buzzing, as the global rating agency Moody's in its latest report said that non-life insurance sector is likely to maintain its double digit growth over the next three to four years, aided by a higher economic expansion and increased household spending.
FII’s Activity 29th-Nov-17
The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5114.49 crore against gross selling of Rs 4330.14 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 784.35 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1657.53 crore with gross sales of Rs 1690.83 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 33.30 crore in debt.
Now what to expect ??
Nifty Levels
Below 10350 will see more downside panic till 10280---10230 and then to 10150 mark else it could test its resistance level of 10450 again.
Hurdle intact 10450 and fresh buy can be initiated only above 10450.
Bank Nifty
Below 25700 will see more downside panic till 25650 and then to 25600---25520 mark else it could test its resistance level of 26000 again
Hurdle intact 26000 and fresh buy can be initiated only above 26000.
Daily Derivative Outlook 30th Nov 2017
• Nifty (Nov) futures closed at a discount of 0.60 points versus a premium of 7.30 points.
• Maximum Call writing was seen at Nifty 10450 strike and Maximum Put buying was seen at Nifty 103500 strikes.
• Maximum positions are at 10500 CE and 10000 PE.
• DALMIABHA (21%), PETRONET (14%), DCBBANK (13%), PAGEIND (11%) and ALBK (9%) were the top gainers in terms of open interest.
• IBREALEST (-17%), AJANTPHARM (-13%), TATAGLOBAL (-13%), RPOWER (-11%) and M&MFIN (-11%) were the top losers in terms of open interest.
• Advance Decline ratio in F&O segment was at 1.65, Advance (86) + Decline (130) + Unchanged (3) = 218
Derivative Idea (30-11-2017)
PTC losses around 21.21% of open interest as long unwinding on Wednesday’s trade. PTC trading below its 21 & 55 DEMA which indicated downside momentum is certain in it.
Now what to expect??
Minor Support at 117.90, Break and sustain below 117.90 will take it to 115.00—113.00 and then to 110 mark in days to come.
119.50 will act as major Hurdle.
Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further panic in coming sessions.
Trading Recommendation (30th Nov 2017)
Sell PTC below 117.90 with stop loss of 119.50 for the initial target 115.00—113.00 and then to 110.00 mark.
Trade within a range
Ujjivan Financial Services - Top Pick
Yesterday Ujjivan Financial Services shown more than 1.16% downside move
After being range and trading in a declining trend for the past three days, the stock has shown signs of reversal.
Now what to expect??
Break and sustain below 395 will see panic till 385---380 in days to come. Further downside will see if closes below 380.
Resistance intact at 405
Any sharp upside rally will be selling opportunity in it.
Trading Recommendation (30th Nov 2017)
Sell Ujjivan Financial Services below 395 with stop loss above 405 (on a closing basis) Target 385—380+++.
More Will Update Soon!!
