Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels, Derivative Outlook and Equity Pick of the day 14th Nov 2017
Nifty 10225 /Sensex 33033/ Bank Nifty 25358
13 Advances / 37 Declines/ 0 Unchanged
Benchmarks end near intraday lows; Nifty breaches 10,250 mark
Indian equity benchmarks started the new week on pessimistic note with frontline gauges ending near intraday low levels, breaching their crucial 10,250 (Nifty) and 33,100 (Sensex) levels, as traders stayed away of risky assets, keeping an eye on the ongoing tensions in the West Asia. Soon after a positive start markets entered into red terrain, as traders reacted negatively to industrial output growth data which fell to 3.8% during the month of September from a revised 4.5% rise in August. The slowdown was mainly due to subdued performance of the manufacturing sector, coupled with contraction in output of consumer durables. Manufacturing sector, which accounts for more than three-fourths of the entire index, slowed to 3.4% in September, from 5.8% in the same month previous year. Afterwards markets never looked confidant and extended their southward journey to at day’s lows.
Sentiments remained dampened on reports that investments in the Indian capital market through participatory notes (P-notes) plunged to an over eight-year low of Rs 1.23 lakh crore at September-end in view of stringent norms put in place by regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI). According to SEBI data, the total value of P-notes investments in Indian markets - equity, debt and derivatives - slumped to Rs 1,22,684 crore at September-end after hitting seven-and-a-half year low of Rs 1,25,037 crore at the end of August. Traders failed to get any sense of relief with report that foreign investors have pumped in a staggering $1.5 billion in the Indian equity markets this month during November 1-10, propelled by the government’s Rs 2.11 lakh crore bank recapitalisation plan. This follows a net inflow of over Rs 3,000 crore in stock markets last month. Prior to that, FPIs had pulled out more than Rs 24,000 crore in the past two months (August and September).
Weakness in European counters too dampened sentiments, as investors focused on a fresh batch of earnings reports, ongoing concerns over Brexit negotiations and US tax reform plans. Investors also remained cautious following reports over the weekend that 40 Conservative members of the UK parliament agreed to sign a letter of no-confidence in Prime Minister Theresa May. Asian markets ended mostly in red, as investors look to see whether US Republicans can hammer a tax reform deal quickly, while the British pound fell on growing doubts over Prime Minister Theresa May’s leadership.
Back home, traders remained on sidelines ahead of CPI inflation data to be released later today. Weak quarterly earnings of L&T, Coal India and Idea Cellular for second quarter of FY18 also dragged the indices down. On the sectoral front, IT stocks remained on buyers’ radar, as Gartner highlighted in its report that IT spending in Indian banking and securities firms is expected to grow by 11.7% to reach $9.1 billion this year, driven by investments in digital payments infrastructure. Select public sector banking stocks ended in green, as Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that the government has decided to inject more capital into state-owned banks to strengthen the banking system and spur economic growth. However, steel stocks ended mixed with report that export of total finished steel saw an annual jump of 45% to 0.778 million tonnes during October 2017. The overall exports of finished steel stood at 0.537 million tonnes in the same month last year.
FII’s Activity 13rd-Nov-17
The FIIs as per Monday’s data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5144.76 crore against gross sell of Rs 5172.48 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 27.72 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1268.32 crore with gross sales of Rs 1431.47 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 163.15 crore in debt.
Now what to expect ??
Nifty Levels
Below 10250 will see more downside panic till 10180 and then to 10150---10050 mark else it could test its resistance level of 10400 again.
Trade within a range
Bank Nifty
Below 25300 will see more downside panic till 25150---25000 mark else it could test its resistance level of 25400---25550 again.
Trade within a range
Daily Derivative Outlook 13th Nov 2017
• Nifty (Oct) futures closed at a Premium of 12.25 points versus a premium of 52.85 points.
• Call writing was seen at Nifty 10400 strike and Maximum Put buying was seen at Nifty 10300 strikes.
• Maximum positions are at 10500 CE and 10200 PE.
• CADILAHC (13%), APOLLOHOSP (11%), JPASSOCIAT (10%), TATAELXSI (10%) and DLF (10%) were the top gainers in terms of open interest.
• JUSTDIAL (-16%), NESTLEIND (-13%), BALKRISIND (-10%), SRF (-7%) and MFSL (-6%) were the top losers in terms of open interest.
• Advance Decline ratio in F&O segment was at 1.13, Advance (64) + Decline (153) + Unchanged (1) = 218
Derivative Idea (09-11-2017)
Tata Steel gain 0.38% of open interest as short build up on Monday’s trade. It is trading near its support level of 688.00
Now what to expect??
Break and sustain below 688.00 will take it to 670—665 and then to 650 mark in days to come.
700 will act as major hurdle.
Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.
Trading Recommendation (14th Nov 2017)
Sell Tata Steel below 688.00 with stop loss of 700 for the initial target 670—665 and then to 650 mark.
Minda Corp - Top Pick
After profit booking the stock was consolidating for the past few months and now has given breakout above 156 which the short term trend is expected to turn bullish.
MACD too has given the positive crossover (Buy signal) which indicates that upper side seems certain in it.
Now what to expect???
On Daily chart, Minda Corp break and sustain above 156 will see rally till 162++ in weeks to come.
Looks bearish only if close below 150 marks.
Any sharp downside panic will be buying opportunity in it.
Trading Recommendation (14th Nov 2017)
Buy Minda Corp above 156 with stop loss below 150 (on a closing basis) Target 162+++.
Result Today
Cadila Healthcare Limited
CEAT Limited
Bank of Baroda
Bata India Limited
GAIL (India) Limited
GMR Infrastructure Limited
Eicher Motors Limited
Godrej Industries Limited
Grasim Industries Limited
Fortis Healthcare Limited
IFCI Limited
Indo Count Industries Limited
Infibeam Incorporation Limited
Housing Development and Infrastructure Limited
Indiabulls Real Estate Limited
Jaiprakash Associates Limited
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited
NBCC (India) Limited
NCC Limited
Reliance Capital Limited
More Will Update Soon!!
