Agro Commodity Update (9th-Nov-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Guar futures traded in a tight ranges during past couple of days. Overall production and yield for year 2017-18 is likely to be lower due to uneven distribution in western Rajasthan. Rajasthan government has released its first advanced estimates showed total guar production for year 2017-18 noted at 16.76 lakh tonnes higher by 19% compare to last year. Gujarat has witnessed lower sowing as about 1.98 lakh hac was sown till 18th Sept against the 2.21 lakh hac sown for the last year. As per data compiled by Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, India's guar gum exports for first four months of FY 17-18 has reached up to 178,119 tonnes as compared with 105214 tonnes recorded a year ago, due to higher demand from the US. Total Guar gum export from India has surged by 69% y/y till July in year 2017-18.
Soybean Nov futures closed with gains on reports of improved meal exports data published by Solvent extractors of India (SEA). India's soymeal exports during October were noted at 47,219 tn, up 50% from a year ago. Moreover, total exports of soy oil meal in the first seven months of the fiscal started April is almost 5 times higher to 5.37 lakh tons compared to 1.07 lakh tons last year. However, soybean is traded at 5 months low prices pressurize by new season arrivals. Last week the prices have improved due to reports that government may hike import duty on edible oil and oilseeds which will enhance domestic oilseed demand. As per the trader source, in the last week of October the arrivals of soybean in the country increased to 6.2 lt compared to 5 lt last.
Mentha Oil prices continued to trade higher in past couple of days. According to the trader sources, arrivals are same in comparison to previous days in major spot markets of Uttar Pradesh. The demand is rising from both the major domestic consuming industries as well as stockists. From the export front there is expectation of demand in coming days which is supporting the prices .As on 01st November 2017 stock positions of mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 9388 drums which is same in comparison to the previous day, while in process were 396 drums, which is 12 drums more against the previous day.
Technical Aspect (Dec)
Jeera
Support seen at 18700 and Resistance is at 19050.
Trading in a range .Either side decisively break will decide further trend in it.
Trade safely with levels only.
Turmeric
Support seen at 6900 and Resistance is 7150.
Panic likely to continue till 6900. Break and sustain below 6900 will take it towards 6780—6700 and then 6630 mark in near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen above 7150 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4350 and Resistance at 4450.
Break and sustain above 4450 will take it to 4520 —4580 and then 4650++ mark else could touch its support level of 4350 mark.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4350 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed
Support is at 3650 and Resistance is 3750.
Looks weak on chart. Break and sustain below 3650 will take it towards 3570 – 3530 and then 3450 mark in near term else it could touch its resistance level of 3750 mark.
Fresh buying can be seen above 3750 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Support is 4650 and Resistance is 4800.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 4800. Above 4800 rally likely to continue till 4880—4950 and then 5050++mark in near term.
Support will remain at 4650 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 3950 and resistance is at 4020.
If prices unable to sustain below 3950 then we can expect a sharp rise in it till 4020. Break and sustain above 4020 will take it towards 4070—4150 and then 4220++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3950 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Our buy call above 2850—2900 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 2850 and Resistance is 2935
Rally likely to continue till 2935. Break and sustain above 2935 will take it towards 2970—3020 and then 3100++ mark in near term. Positional, traders can accumulate more on decline in it.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Nov)
Support is 560 and Resistance is 575.
Rally likely to continue till 575. Break and sustain above 575 will take it towards 579—584 and then 590++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 560 mark.
Fresh selling can be seen below 560 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha Oil
Our buy call from 1475—1650 proven great…
Now what to expect??
Rally likely to continue. Hurdle is 1650. Break and sustain above 1650 will take it towards 1678—1690 and then 1720 ++mark.
Fresh selling can be seen below 1580 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!!
