Agro Commodity Update (2nd-Nov-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Mustard seed recovered sharply as market participants initiated some fresh buying at lower levels expecting good demand from the oil mills. Moreover, sowing of mustard in Rajasthan started but slow compared to last year. As on 31st’Oct about 9.8 lakh ha have been sown as compared to 15.7 lakh ha noted earlier. This year target is 26 lakh ha as compared with last year area which was 25 lakh ha while, 5 year average is 25.8 lakh ha. Support price for mustard in 2017-18 rises by 8.1% on year to 4,000 rupees per 100 kg. Earlier the prices have hit 2-month high supported by higher meal exports during the first 6 months of new financial year and increasing demand for winter crushing. As per the latest report of SEA data, during Nov-Sep, import of mustard oil sharply down to 2.55 lt from 3.33 lt a year ago.
Chana futures prices traded lower due to higher stocks and steady demand. According to the trader source, Chana sowing acreage in the coming Rabi season may be higher than last year as prices was firm throughout the year. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt which is slightly higher than 2016-17 fourth advance estimates of 93.3 lakh tonnes.
Turmeric future traded lower due to lower physical demand. Market is expecting higher production in the new season. The arrivals have been lower during first 25 days of October at 5,642 tonnes as compared with the 8,472 tonnes last year same period. The export of turmeric is noted down by 16.4% to 41,517 tonnes for the first 4 month of FY 2017-18 compared to last years’ exports. For 2017-18, turmeric sowing in Telangana this season marked lower at 1.5% to 44,956 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 45,633 hectares. Market participants are expecting good production in the coming season due to good rains in turmeric sowing areas.
Technical Aspect (Nov)
Jeera
Support seen at 18500 and Resistance is at 19000.
Panic likely to continue. Break and close below 18500 will take it towards 18200—17980 and then 17750 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 19000 on closing basis.
Trade safely with levels only.
Turmeric
Support seen at 6900 and Resistance is 7150.
Panic likely to continue till 6900. Break and sustain below 6900 will take it towards 6820—6750 and then 6600 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 7150.
Fresh buying only can be seen above 7150 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4300 and Resistance at 4450.
Looks weak on chart. Break and close below 4300 will take it to 4220 —4160 and then 4050 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4450.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4450 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed
Support is at 3500 and Resistance is 3650.
Below 3500 panic likely to continue and likely to touch 3420 – 3360 and then 3200 mark in near term else it could touch its resistance level of 3650.
Fresh buying can be seen above 3650 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Hurdle is 4980. Break and sustain above 4980 will take it towards 5080---5150 and then to 5240++ mark in near term.
Support will remain at 4650 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed (Dec)
Support seen at 3900 and resistance is at 3960.
Looks positive on chart. Break and sustain above 3960 will take it towards 4020—4080 and then 4150++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3900 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean (Dec)
Support seen at 2800 and Resistance is 2850
Above 2850 rally likely to continue. Break and close above 2850 will take it towards 2930—3000 and then 3080++ mark in near term. Positional, traders can accumulate more on decline in it.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 2800 on closing basis only.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Dec)
Support at 538 and Resistance at 553
Rally likely to continue. Close above 553 will take it towards 559—564 and then 570++ mark in near term. Support will remain at 538.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
