Agro Commodity Update (16th-Nov-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean prices laying down its early profits to trade lower due to arrival pressure, higher carryover stocks and higher edible oil imports reported by SEA for 2016-17 oil year. Prices are still trading at lower levels as soybean arrivals have peaked in the major mandies. As per the trader source, the arrivals during 1-10 Nov reported at 5.34 lt as compared with 4.6 lt noted last year for same time. Arrivals since October in 2017 is noted at 17 lt as compared to 15 lt noted last year same period. Good demand for soy meal exports kept the prices supported prices last week.
Chana futures traded higher on short covering pressured by good start of rabi sowing and higher stock levels in the country. Moreover, government which is sitting on a buffer stock of 18 lakh tonnes is set to dispose of 5 lt pulses by March next year will put pressure on prices. Hike on import duty on chana is unlikely as prices have already started moving up, however, government is considering allowing export of desi chana with limits on quantity and the decision is likely to come in a week. As per the latest government sowing data, chana is planted in 47.2 lakh ha as on 10 Nov, up by 43% as compared with the 33 lakh ha noted last year. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt.
Jeera traded higher on anticipation of improved export demand from the country despite good sowing progress in Gujarat. In Gujarat, jeera sowing reached about 60,000 ha this year compared to 36,600 ha last year as on 13th Nov. Jeera exports during first five month of FY 2017-18 (Apr-Sep) is noted at 63,085 tonnes, down 2.6% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Aug increase 46% on year to 13,879 tn. On the import front, country imported about 1,044 tonnes of jeera during the month of August about 209 percent higher than last year imports.
Technical Aspect (Dec)
Turmeric
Our sell call from 6900 to 6805 proven great.
Now what to expect??
Support seen at 6750 and Resistance is 7050.
Panic likely to continue .Break and sustain below 6750 will take it towards 6650—6580 and then 6500 mark in near term.
Fresh selling only can be seen only close below 6750 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Our buy call from 19300—19760 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 19300 and Resistance is at 19750.
Rally likely to continue. Break and sustain above 19750 will take it towards 19980—20250 and then 20500++mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be on close below 19300 mark.
Trade safely with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4320 and Resistance at 4425.
Looks weak on chart and likely to touch 4320. Break and sustain below 4320 will take it to towards 4260 —4200 and then 4150 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4425 mark.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4425 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed
Support is at 3650 and Resistance is 3780.
Any sharp rise will be a selling opportunity in it. It’s likely to touch 3650 in near term. Break and sustain below 3650 will take it towards 3610—3570 and then 3530 mark.
Hurdle will remain at 3780.
Fresh Buying can be seen on close above 3780 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Support is 4800 and Resistance is 4950.
Rally likely to continue till 4950. Above 4950 will take it towards 5020—5070 and then 5150++ mark in near term.
Major downtrend will be seen only on close below 4650 mark (Major support).
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 3920 and resistance is at 3980--4050.
Likely to touch 3980. Break and sustain above the same will take it towards 4050—4120 and then 4200++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3920 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2750 and Resistance is 2880
In short term looks weak but, over the medium term we expect a “U” turn in it. Buy and accumulate more on decline. Support will remain at 2750 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Soy Refined
Our sell call from 708—703 proven great.
Now what to expect??
Support is 702 and Resistance is 715.
Break and sustain below 702 will take it towards 696—691 and the 685 mark in near term.
Fresh buying only can be seen above 715 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Nov)
Support is 553 and Resistance is 565.
Trading sideways. Either side break or close will set the further trend in it.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!!
