Agro Commodity Update (31st-October-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean Nov futures hits nearly 5-month low pressurized by subdued physical demand coupled with new season arrivals and higher stocks from last year. Moreover, favourable weather for soybean harvest in Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra also weigh on prices. As per trader source, during the first 25 days of Oct. soybean arrivals have been recorded at 7.6 lakh tonnes compared to close to 9 lakh tones last year. In a latest press release, SOPA has estimated 2017- 18 (Oct-Sep) soybean output at 9.15 mt, down from 11.49 mt a year ago. Reports of lower meal export in September also worrying farmers and oil millers. India's soymeal exports during September were at 9,650 tn, down 21% from a year ago.
Chana futures further traded negative on fresh selling by the market participants due to higher stocks and steady demand. At the end of the session, prices recovered sharply on the news of rise in its MSP by the CCEA but, sufficient stocks levels in the country and good production forecast for next season is weighing on prices. According to the trader source, chana sowing acreage in the coming Rabi season may be higher than last year as prices was firm throughout the year. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt which is slightly higher than 2016-17 fourth advance estimates of 93.3 lakh tonnes.
Turmeric futures falls sharply due to lower physical demand. Market is expecting higher production in the new season. The arrivals have been lower during first 25 days of October at 5,642 tonnes as compared to 8,472 tonnes last year same period (Trader source). The export of turmeric is noted down by 16.4% to 41,517 tonnes for the first 4 month of FY 2017-18 compared to last years’ exports. For 2017-18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, this season down 1.5% to 44,956 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 45,633 hectares. Market participants are expecting good production in the coming season due to rains in turmeric sowing areas.
Technical Aspect (Nov)
Jeera
As expected prices almost hit our target of 18400 and made a low 18410 yesterday.
Now what to expect??
Support seen at 18400 and Resistance is at 19000.
Panic likely to continue. Break and close below 18400 will take it towards 18180—17920 and then 17700 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 19000 on closing basis.
Trade safely with levels only.
Turmeric
Our sell call from 7300---7076 proven great
Now what to expect??
Support seen at 7050 and Resistance is 7350.
Panic likely to continue. Break and sustain below 7050 will take it towards 6920—6850 and then 6710 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 7350.
Fresh buying only can be seen above 7350.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4380 and Resistance at 4580.
Panic likely to continue. Break and close below 4380 will take it to 4320 —4260 and then 4150 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4580.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4580 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed
Our sell call from 3600—3507 proven great…
Now what to expect??
Support is at 3500 and Resistance is 3650.
Panic likely to continue .Break and close below 3500 will take it towards 3430 – 3360 and then 3200 mark in near term else it could touch its resistance level of 3650.
Fresh buying can be seen above 3650 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our sell call of Chana proven great... Crashed vertically from 4950---4790.
Now what to expect???
Support at 4750.Looks weak on chart. Break and close below 4750 will take towards 4650---4500 and then to 4420 mark in near term.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 3850 and resistance is at 3920.
If prices unable to break and close below 3850 then we can expect some recovery from here.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3850.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2750 and Resistance is 2830--2880
If prices unable to breach its immediate support of 2750 then we can see good upside in it till 2830--2880.Break and close above 2830 will take it towards 2880—2950 and then 3000++ mark in near term. Positional, traders can accumulate more on decline in it.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 2750 on closing basis only.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Nov)
Support at 541 and Resistance at 549
Looks positive above 549. Close above 549 will take it towards 555—562 and then 570++ mark in near term. Support will remain at 541.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
