Agro Commodity Update (30th-October-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean Nov futures traded lower from last couple of days pressurized by subdued physical demand coupled with new season arrivals and higher stocks from last year. Weakness in spot prices weighs on futures too. As per the trader data, during the first 25 days of Oct. soybean arrivals have been recorded at 7.6 lakh tonnes compared to close to 9 lakh tones last year. In a latest press release, SOPA has estimated 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) soybean output at 9.15 mt, down from 11.49 mt a year ago.
Chana futures traded negative on fresh selling by the market participants due to higher stocks and steady demand. At the end of the session, prices recovered sharply on the news of rise in its MSP by the CCEA but, sufficient stocks levels in the country and good production forecast for next season is weighing on prices. According to the trader source, chana sowing acreage in the coming Rabi season may be higher than last year as prices was firm throughout the year. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt which is slightly higher than 2016-17 fourth advance estimates of 93.3 lakh tonnes.
NCDEX Jeera traded mix during last week with positive bias on short covering in the near month contract and fresh buying in the far month contract. The prices have move up in the physical market as well on expectation on export demand and lower stocks in the physical market. As per the latest government data, Jeera exports during first four month of FY 2017-18 (Apr-Jul) is 49,205 tonnes, down 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Jul down 12% on year to 7,498 tn. As per the traders report, The arrivals have been higher during first 25 days of October at 3,198 tonnes compared to 1,820 tonnes last year same period.
Technical Aspect (Nov)
Jeera
Support seen at 18650 and Resistance is at 19150.
Panic likely to continue. Break and close below 18650 will take it towards 18400—18150 and then 17800 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 19150 on closing basis.
Trade safely with levels only.
Turmeric
Support seen at 7300 and Resistance is 7550.
If prices unable to breach 7550 then we can see more downside panic in it. Break and close below close below 7300 will take it towards 7180 —7050 and then 6900 mark in near term else it could touch its resistance level of 7550.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4300 and Resistance at 4450.
Panic likely to continue. Break and close below 4300 will take it to 4240 —4170 and then 4100 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4450.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4450 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed
Support is at 3600 and Resistance is 3730.
Panic likely to continue .Break and close below 3600 will take it towards 3530 – 3460 and then 3400 mark in near term else it could touch its resistance level of 3730.
Fresh buying can be seen above 3730 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our sell call of Chana proven great... Crashed vertically from 5080---4962.
Now what to expect???
Support at 4850.Looks weak on chart. Break and close below 4850 will take towards 4720---4650 and then to 4500 mark in near term.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 3850 and resistance is at 3900.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 3900. Break and close above 3900 will take it to 3980---4050 in days to come else could touch its support level of 3850.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3850.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2800 and Resistance is 2880--2950
If prices unable to breach its immediate support of 2800 then we can see good upside in it till 2880--2950.Break and close above 2950 will take it towards 3020—3080 and then 3150++ mark in near term. Positional, traders can accumulate more on decline in it.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 2800 on closing basis only.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support at 535 and Resistance at 545---552
Looks positive above 545. Close above 545 will take it towards 552—557 and then 564 mark in near term. Support will remain at 535.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
