Agro Commodity Update (25th-Oct-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Government hikes MSP for wheat and pulses…
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs, chaired by PM Narendra Modi, has approved the MSPs of all Rabi (winter-sown) crops for 2017-18.The government has increased the minimum support price (MSP) of wheat by Rs110 to Rs1, 735 a quintal and of pulses by Rs200 per quintal to help boost the output of these crops, up from Rs1, 625 per quintal last year. To encourage the cultivation of gram and masoor, their MSPs have been raised by Rs200 per quintal each to Rs4,200 and Rs 4,150. Among oilseeds, rapeseed/mustard and safflower seed MSP has also been increased substantially. Wheat is the main Rabi crop, sowing of which will begin from this month. The crop will be marketed from next year April onwards.
Soybean futures traded with negative note from last couple of days as market participants liquidate their long position on expectation of higher arrivals of new season crop. Moreover, higher stocks from last year weigh down the sentiment of its prices. Weakness in spot prices weighs on futures too. As per the latest report of SOPA, has estimated 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) soybean output noted at 9.15 mt, down from 11.49 mt marked a year ago. Moreover, on reports of lower meal exports in September is also worrying farmers. The USDA showed the US soybean harvest catching up at 70% complete, compared to the 5-year average of 73%. The U.S. Agriculture Department said that weekly export inspections of soybeans totalled 2.562 million tonnes, above market forecasts that ranged from 1.3 million to 1.9 million tonnes. That is an increase of 43.48% over the previous week but lagging last year by 9.24%.
Chana futures plunged more than 4% in last two trading session on fresh selling by the market participants due to higher stocks and steady demand. At the end of the session, prices recovered sharply on the news of rise in its MSP by the CCEA but, sufficient stocks levels in the country and good production forecast for next season is weighing on prices. According to the trader source, chana sowing acreage in the coming Rabi season may be higher than last year as prices was firm throughout the year. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt which is slightly higher than 2016-17 fourth advance estimates of 93.3 lakh tonnes.
Technical Aspect (Nov)
Jeera
Our sell call from 19200 to 18650 proven great and made a low of 18680 yesterday.
Now what to expect???
Support seen at 18650 and Resistance is at 19150.
Panic likely to continue. Break and close below 18650 will take it towards 18400—18150 and then 17800 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 19100 on closing basis.
Trade safely with levels only.
Turmeric
Our buy call from 7300 to 7550 proven great.
Now what to expect??
Support seen at 7300 and Resistance is 7550.
Rally likely to continue till 7550.Break and close above 7550 will take it towards 7670 —7750 and then 7900++ mark in near term else it could touch its support level of 7300.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Our sell call of Castor Seed from 4490 to 4355 proven great and made a low of 4327 yesterday.
Now what to expect??
Support at 4300 and Resistance at 4450.
Panic likely to continue. Break and close below 4300 will take it to 4240 —4170 and then 4100 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4450.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4450 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed
Our sell call from 3780 to 3650 proven great and made a low of 3625 yesterday.
Now what to expect??
Support is at 3625 and Resistance is 3750.
Panic likely to continue .Break and close below 3625 will take it towards 3560 – 3520 and then 3450 mark in near term else it could touch its resistance level of 3750.
Fresh buying can be seen above 3750 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our sell call of Chana proven great... Crashed vertically from 5250---5037.
Now what to expect???
Support at 5030. Break and close below 5030 will take to 4960---4910 and then to 49850 mark in near term else sharp recovery from lower level can be seen.
Trade with levels only
RM Seed
Support seen at 3880 and resistance is at 3950.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 3950. Break and close above 3950 will take it to 3980---4050 in days to come else could touch its support level of 3880.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3880.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2840 and Resistance is 2950
If prices unable to breach its immediate support of 2840 then we can see good upside in it till 2950.Break and close above 2950 will take it towards 3020—3080 and then 3150++ mark in near term. Positional, traders can accumulate more on decline in it.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 2840 only.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support at 535 and Resistance at 545
Trading in a range. Either side decisively break or close will decide further trend in it.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
