Agro Commodity Update (18th-Oct-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean futures traded moderately lower from last couple of days on fresh selling by the market participants. Weakness in spot prices weighs on futures too. Market participants are expecting lower arrivals in the physical market because of festival season in coming weeks but higher stocks with the oil mills may put further pressure on it. In a press release of SOPA, has estimated 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) soybean output noted at 9.15 mt, down from 11.49 mt a year ago. Moreover, on reports of lower meal exports in September coupled with sufficient arrivals from new season crop is pressurizing the prices. India's soymeal exports during September were at 9,650 tn, down 21% from a year ago. Moreover, huge carryover stocks also weigh on prices. The arrival of soybean during first 10 days of October was 2.91 lakh tonnes which is higher compared to last year arrivals (1.75 lt) for the same period.
Chana futures traded higher from last two trading session on bargain buying and expectation that the MSP may be increased for the new Rabi season. Chana production last year was increase by 32% to 93.3 lakh tonnes (lt) compared to 70.6 lt in the previous year. Moreover, the imports of chana during first four month of FY 2017-18 jumped by 655% to 2.44 lakh tonnes compared to 32,258 tonnes last year for same period.
MCX Cotton futures traded lower mainly on profit booking as recent rains in the cotton growing states may improve production in the country. However, on weekly based the price have closed higher on good demand for new season cotton and reports of improved exports for Indian cotton from the Asian countries. As per the first advance estimates for 2017-18 released by the government, India's 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) cotton output is pegged at 322.7 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg), down 2.5% from 330.9 lakh bales in 2016-17.
Turmeric futures traded slightly higher due to wet conditions in the southern peninsula which may affect the production. The export of turmeric is down by 16.4% to 41,517 tonnes for the first 4 month of FY 2017-18 compared to last years’ exports. For 2017-18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, this season down 1.5% to 44,956 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 45,633 hectares.
Technical Aspect (Nov)
Jeera
Support seen at 18800 and Resistance is at 19200.
Looks weak on chart and any rise close to 19200 will be selling opportunity in it. Break and close below 18800 will take it towards 18550—18300 and then 18100 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 19200 on closing basis.
Trade safely with levels only.
Turmeric
Our buy call from 7300 to 7550 proven great.
Now what to expect??
Support seen at 7300 and Resistance is 7550.
Rally likely to continue till 7550.Break and close above 7550 will take it towards 7680—7750 and then 7900++ mark in near term else it could touch its support level of 7300.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4550 and Resistance at 4650.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 4650. Break and close above 4650 will take it to 4720—4760 and then 4850++ mark else could touch its resistance level of 4550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4550 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed
Support is at 3750 and Resistance is 3880.
If prices unable to breach its key support of 3750 then we can expect a sharp upside in it till 3880. Break and close above 3880 will take it towards 3940-4000 and then 4120++ mark in near term else it could touch its support level of 3750.
Fresh selling can be seen below 3750 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our buy call from 5200—5325 proven great.
Now what to expect??
Support seen at 5150 and Resistance is at 5350.
Rally likely to continue till 5350. Break and close above 5350 will take it towards 5440 –5500 and then 5680++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be seen below 5150 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Support seen at 3750 and resistance is at 3850.
Break and close above 3850 will take it to 3920---3960 and then 4000++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3750.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3750.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2880 and Resistance is 2960--3050
If prices unable to breach its immediate support of 2880 then we can see good upside in it till 2960—3050—3120++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 2880 only.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support at 530 and Resistance at 538
Trading in a range. Either side decisively break or close will decide further trend in it.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
