Agro Commodity Update (11th-Oct-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean futures continue to trade lower on reports of lower meal exports in September coupled with sufficient arrivals from new season crop. India's soymeal exports during September were marked at 9,650 tn, down 21% from a year ago. While with huge carryover stocks also pressurize prices. Moreover, extend in the limits on stocks of oilseeds and edible oils with traders and mills till September 30, 2018 also putting pressure in the oilseeds complex. Government has estimated 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) soybean output at 9.15 mt, down from 11.49 mt a year ago. Brazilian statistics agency Conab forecast the country's 2017-18 soybean crop at between 106 mt and 108.2 mt tonnes, down from the 2016-17 crop of 114 mt. Now the market expecting the USDA in its monthly supply/demand reports due on Thursday this week to raise its U.S. soybean yield estimate but lower its forecast of U.S. 2017-18 soybean ending stocks.
Jeera traded marginally lower on subdued demand from the physical players due to weak physical demand as exports are usually lower during the months of September, October and November. As per government data, Jeera exports during first four month of FY 2017-18 (Apr-Jun) is noted at 49,205 tonnes, down 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. Moreover, there are assumptions that the area under jeera may increase by more than 30% in coming rabi season due to higher prices. The arrivals marked lower during September at 6,529 tonnes compared to 7,103 tonnes in August. India's jeera exports in Jun surged 29.6% on year to 13,503 tn.
MCX Cotton futures traded higher from last couple of session on reports of lower than expected domestic production forecasted by the government. However, arrival of new season cotton is pressurizing prices. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, the area under cotton across the country marked at 122 lakh ha as on last week, up nearly 18.7% on year. Acreage was higher than the normal of 11.49 mln ha for the period, based on the average of last five years. According to the first advance estimates for 2017-18 released by the government, India's 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) cotton output is pegged at 322.7 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg), down 2.5% from 330.9 lakh bales in 2016-17.
Sugar Futures traded marginally higher on reports that the crushing will be delayed in UP as well as Maharashtra coupled with festival demand. As per a senior industry official said today Mills in Uttar Pradesh are likely to delay crushing operations for 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) season to the last week of October due to poor sugar recovery from cane. The production in the country will jump 24% in 2017/18 to around 25 mt.
Technical Aspect (Nov)
Jeera
Support seen at 18700 and Resistance is at 19300.
Looks weak on chart and any rise close to 19300 will be selling opportunity in it. Break and close below 18700 will take it towards 18450—18100 and then 17750 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 19300 on closing basis.
Trade safely with levels only.
Turmeric
Support seen at 7000 and Resistance is 7300.
Looks positive on chart. Break and close above 7300 will take it towards 7460—7550 and then 7800++ mark in near term else it could touch its support level of 7000.
Fresh selling can be seen only below 7000 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4550 and Resistance at 4650.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 4650. Break and close above 4650 will take it to 4720—4760 and then 4850++ mark else could touch its resistance level of 4550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4550 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed
Support is at 3800 and Resistance is 3930.
Break and close above 3930 will take it towards 4050-4120 and then 4200++ mark in near term else it could touch its support level of 3800.
Fresh selling can be seen below 3800 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Support seen at 5150 and Resistance is at 5380.
Looks weak on chart and any sharp rise will be a selling opportunity in it. Panic likely to continue and sustainable move below 5150 will take it to 5060 –4850 and then 4700 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be seen above 5380 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Support seen at 3750 and resistance is at 3880.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 3880.
Break and close above 3880 will take it to 3930---3970 and then 4050++ mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 3750.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3750.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2880 and Resistance is 2950--3050
If prices unable to breach its immediate support of 2880 then we can see good upside in it till 3050—3160—3230++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 2880 only.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support at 530 and Resistance at 538
Trading in a range. Either side decisively break or close will decide further trend in it.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!!
