Agro Commodity Update (09th-Oct-2017)
Fundamental Aspect:
Soybean future prices trading with a weak tone in the second consecutive week on expectation of increase in arrivals from new season crop. Moreover, extend in the limits on stocks of oilseeds and edible oils with traders and mills till September 30, 2018 also prevailing the bearish sentiment for the oilseeds complex. As the prices of soybean move below the MSP in key physical markets, central government has given approval for procurement of 100,000 ton soybean from farmers in Maharashtra and 150,000 ton of the oilseed from Rajasthan at minimum support price.
Jeera traded marginally lower on subdued demand from the physical players due to weak physical demand as exports are usually lower during the months of September, October and November. As per government data, Jeera exports during first four month of FY 2017-18 (Apr-Jun) is noted at 49,205 tonnes, down 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. Moreover, there are assumptions that the area under jeera may increase by more than 30% in coming rabi season due to higher prices. The arrivals marked lower during September at 6,529 tonnes compared to 7,103 tonnes in August. India's jeera exports in Jun surged 29.6% on year to 13,503 tn.
Turmeric futures traded lower from last couple of days due to beneficial rains in the southern peninsula. The export of turmeric is down by 16.4% to 41,517 tonnes for the first 4 month of FY 2017-18 compared to last years’ exports. For 2017-18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, as on 27th Sep, down 1.5% to 44,956 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 45,633 hectares. The production estimate of turmeric for 2016-17 is pegged at 11.32 lakh tonnes by government in 3rd advance estimate higher from 9.43 lakh tonnes in 2015-16.
MCX Cotton futures traded higher from last couple of session on reports of lower than expected domestic production forecasted by the government. However, arrival of new season cotton is pressurizing prices. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, the area under cotton across the country marked at 122 lakh ha as on last week, up nearly 18.7% on year. Acreage was higher than the normal of 11.49 mln ha for the period, based on the average of last five years. According to the first advance estimates for 2017-18 released by the government, India's 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) cotton output is pegged at 322.7 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg), down 2.5% from 330.9 lakh bales in 2016-17.
Technical Aspect (Nov)
Jeera
Support seen at 18850 and Resistance is at 19300.
Looks weak on chart and likely to touch 18850.Sustianable move below 18850 will take it towards 18450—18100 and then 17750 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 19300 on closing basis.
Trade safely with levels only.
Turmeric
Support seen at 7000 and Resistance is 7350.
Any sharp rise will be a selling opportunity in it till 7000. Break and close below 7000 will take it towards 6800—6550 and then 6320 mark in near term else it could touch its resistance level of 7350.
Fresh buying can be seen only above 7350 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
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Support at 4550 and Resistance at 4650.
Looks weak on chart. Break and close below 4550 will take it to 4480—4420 and then 4350 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4650.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4650 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed
Support is at 3650 and Resistance is 3800.
Looks weak on chart and likely to touch 3650 in near term. Break and close below 3650 will take it to 3530-3450 and then 3200 mark in near term else it could touch its resistance level of 3800.
Fresh Buying can be seen above 3800 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Support seen at 5250 and Resistance is at 5500
Looks weak on chart and likely to touch 5250. Sustainable move below 5250 will take it to 5080 –4850 and then 4700 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be seen above 5500 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Support seen at 3760 and resistance is at 3850.
Break and close below 3760 will take it to 3700---3640 and then 3550 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 3850.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 3850.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 2950--2880 and Resistance is 3010--3050
Sell on every rise till 3010 and likely to touch 2880 .Break and close below 2880 will take it towards 2820---2750 and then 2600 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 3050 only.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support at 534 and Resistance at 540
Trading in a range. Either side decisively break or close will decide further trend in it.
Overall trend looks positive but trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
