Rupee slides with bonds as fiscal deficit concerns rise…
India’s rupee sank the most since May and sovereign bonds slumped on concern the nation’s fiscal deficit will widen after the government said it was considering measures to boost growth. Policy makers are studying economic indicators and appropriate action will be taken at the right time, the finance minister stated during speech at an event. Concerns about India’s public finances heightened as the government was weighing a stimulus package of Rs40, 000 crore ($6.2 billion).
India’s fiscal deficit already reached 92% of the budget estimate in the first four months of the financial year that began 1 April, according to the Controller General of Accounts.
Technical Aspect
USDINR
As visible in the daily chart, sharp recovery has been seen from its recent bottom of Rs.63. 57 and prices give a smart break out above its major trend line resistance of Rs.64.60. Now prices are able to close above its 23.6% retrenchment (Rs.64.80) (Extension 63.57—68.88) along with strong base formation in the range of Rs.64—63.50, which is clearly showing that it is a just a beginning of rally. Break and sustain above Rs.64.80 with high volume will take it towards Rs.65.60—66.80 and then 68.30++ mark in near term. Support will remain at Rs.64—63.50 over the medium term.
Technical Oscillators like MACD (12, 26, 9), ADX (14) also showing a positive diversion in the chart while, RSI-14(78) is hovering in overbought territory where once can put pressure on prices.
Traders don’t go for aggressive positional selling in it. Trend is positive and any correctional decline till Rs.64.50—64.00 will be a golden buying opportunity in it for the above mentioned levels. Enjoy the rally.
EURINR
As visible on the weekly chart, EURINR has given a fresh breakout above Rs.78.00 level. We have seen a sharp upside rally from 68.00 in it, Weekly close above 78.00 will take to 80.50—82.00 and then to 84.00++ mark in days to come, else could touch its support level of 76.00.Momentum oscillators like MACD and ADX also supporting our view in it while, while RSI is trading in oversold zone which indicate upside momentum is certain in it. Alternatively, break and close below 76.00 will negate our bullish sentiment in it.
Traders don’t go for aggressive positional selling as trend looking positive. Any correctional decline till Rs.76 will be buying opportunity for the above upside level of 80.50—82 and then 84++mark.
GBPINR
As visible on the weekly chart, after a long time we have seen a strong break near Rs.85 and prices formed a three while shoulder pattern which is clearly showing that the upside momentum likely to continue in the chart. Now prices are able to trade in positive territory and any correctional decline till Rs.86 will be a buying opportunity in it. Technical Oscillators like MACD (12, 26, 9), ADX (14) also showing a positive diversion in the chart while, RSI-14(78) is hovering in overbought territory where once a bit pressure can be seen on it.
Traders can make long position here and can accumulate more in panic for the upside level of 90—93.30 and then 96.50++ mark in near term. Support will remain at 85 mark in short to medium term.
JPYINR
JPYINR trading in a range of Rs.60.00—56.00. Minor Hurdle at 58.50, Break and sustain above Rs.58.50 will take it to Rs.60.00—60.20. Three consecutive close + weekly close above Rs.60.20 will see sharp upside rally till Rs.62.00—64.00++ mark in days to come, else could touch its support level of Rs.56.00. Fresh selling can be initiated only below Rs.56.00 only. On seeing weekly chart JPYINR is consolidation around 61.8% of retracement level from top of Rs.69.00.
More will update soon !!
