Fundamental Aspect
Soybean Oct futures traded slightly higher on bargain buying by the market participants as new season soybean has started to arrive in the physical market. As per the trader source, soybean arrivals during the first 15 days is pegged at 1.58 lakh tonnes as compared with the 1.24 lakh tonnes recorded in August same period. However, as per the agri ministry data, India's soybean acreage was at 10.6 million ha as on last week, down 7.8% from a year ago. The fall in overall acreage has been led by a decline in area under the crop in Madhya Pradesh (the largest producer) because of poor rains in the state so far this monsoon season.
CPO traded a bit positive tracking good demand in the physical market and also helped by recent surge in international prices. The prices were also supported due to increase in tariff value for Crude palm oil and higher import duty also supports prices. The base import price of refined, bleached and deodorised palm oil has been increased by $49 a tn to $750 a tn and that of crude soy oil has been raised by $16 a tn to $851 per tn. As per the latest government action, it has raised import duty on crude palm oil to 15% from 7.5%, and on refined palm oil to 25% from 15%. Moreover, SEA release its crude palm oil import during November-August period, increased to 50.82 lakh tonnes from 46.70 lakh tonnes during the same period of the previous oil year.
Jeera future traded slightly negative due to profit booking activity seen at higher level. Traders are expecting good physical demand anticipating a diminishing stocks in the physical as well as exchange warehouses. Jeera exports have been lower than anticipated during the first quarter of new FY 2017-18. The arrivals have been lower during the first 15 days of September at 3,625 tonnes compared to 3,923 tonnes in August for same period. India's jeera exports in Jun surged 29.6% on year to 13,503 tn. However, as per government data, Jeera exports during first quarter in FY 2017-18 (Apr-Jun) is 41,707 tonnes, down 10.8% compared to last year exports volume for the same period.
Sugar prices looking positive on anticipation of good festival demand and reports that country may see tight supplies despite a 20% rise in output expected in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep), as ending stocks are seen tumbling to multi-year lows. Moreover, imposing stock limits on sugar mills government is likely to allow import of 300,000 tn of raw sugar at 25-30% import duty.
Technical Aspect (Oct)
Jeera
Support at 19550 and Resistance at 19900.
Trading in a tight range. Break and sustain below 19550 will take it to 19300—19050 and then 18500 mark else could touch its resistance level of 19900.
Fresh s can be initiated below 19300.
Trade safely with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4700 and Resistance at 4850.
Panic continue below 4700.Break and close below 4700 will take it to 4640—4600 and 4550 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4850.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4850 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric
Support is at 7500 and Resistance is at 7900--8000.
Forming strong base near 7500.If prices manage to accept this support then will see good upside in it till 8000 mark.
Fresh selling can be seen below 7500.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Oct)
Support is at 3650 and Resistance is 3750.
Looks weak. Break and sustain below 3650 will take it to 3610-3560 and then 3500 mark in near term else it could touch its resistance level of 3750.
Fresh buying can be seen above 3750.
Trade with levels only.
Guar gum (Oct)
Our sell call of Guargum proven great. Crashed vertically.
Now what to expect???
Break and sustain below 7500 will take it to 7350—7280 and the 7150 mark in near term else it could touch its resistance level of 7800.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Support seen at 6100 and Resistance is at 6350-6400
Prices likely to touch 6100. Break and close below 6100 will take it to 5950-5800 and then 5550 mark else it could touch its resistance of 6400.
Fresh buying can be seen above 6400.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Support seen at 3750 and resistance is at 3850.
Break and sustain above 3750 will take it to 3710---3650 and then 3580 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 3850.
Fresh selling can be initiated above 3850.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3050 and Resistance is 3155.
Break and sustain above 3155 will take it to 3190---3240 and then 3400++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 3050.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3050 only.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil
Support is 1180 and Resistance is 1230.
Looks positive on chart and likely to touch 1230. Weekly close above 1230 will take it to 1290---1320+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1180.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 1180 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support at 540 and Resistance at 552
Above 552 rally likely to continue till 550—565+++ mark else it could test it's support again.
Overall trend looks positive but trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
