Fundamental Aspect
Soybean Oct futures traded in a limited range from last couple of days on reports of arrival of new season crops, lower soymeal exports order and higher carryover stocks. As per the latest report of SOPA, India's soymeal exports during 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) are seen falling 17% on-year to 15 lakh tn due to uncompetitive prices in global markets. Moreover, India's soybean stocks are is expected to be reported at record high of 17.5 lakh tonnes. As per the latest agri ministry data, India's soybean acreage was at 10.5 million ha as on last week which was down 8.2% from a year ago. The fall in overall acreage has been led by a decline in area under the crop in Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer because of poor rains in the state so far this monsoon season.
CPO future traded continuously with positive bias from last couple of days tracking firm cues in the International prices. The prices were also supported due to increase in tariff value for Crude palm oil and higher demand for coming festival season coupled with higher import duty also supports prices. Recently government raised import duty on crude palm oil to 15% from 7.5%, and on refined palm oil to 25% from 15% but higher stocks in the country is having bearish impact. As per the latest SEA release, during November-August period, crude palm oil import increased to 50.82 lakh tonnes as compared with 46.70 lakh tonnes noted during the same period of the previous oil year.
Jeera Oct contract jumped nearly 2% yesterday on fresh buying after seeing good delivery allocations for the September contract. Traders are expecting good physical demand anticipating a diminishing stocks in the physical as well as exchange warehouses. Jeera exports have been lower than anticipated during the first quarter of new FY 2017-18. The arrivals have been lower during the first 10 days of September at 1980 tonnes compared to 3,271 tonnes in August for same period. India's jeera exports in Jun surged 29.6% on year to 13,503 tn. However, as per government data, Jeera exports during first quarter in FY 2017-18 (Apr-Jun) is 41,707 tonnes, down 10.8% compared to last year exports volume for the same period.
Technical Aspect (Oct)
Jeera
Support at 19300 and Resistance at 19750.
Rally likely to continue. Break and sustain above 19750 will take it to 20000—20350 and then 20500++ mark else could touch its support level of 19300.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 19300.
Trade safely with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4700 and Resistance at 4850.
Break and sustain below 4700 will take it to 4640—4600 and 4550 mark else could touch its resistance level of 4850.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4850 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric
Support is at 7500 and Resistance is at 7900--8000.
Forming strong base near 7500.If prices manage to accept this support then will see good upside in it till 8000 mark.
Fresh selling can be seen below 7500.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Oct)
Support is at 3650 and Resistance is 3880.
If prices unable to breach its support level of 3650 then we can see a sharp recovery in it till 3880. Break and sustain above 3880 will take it to 4000--4060 and then 4200++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be seen below 3650.
Trade with levels only.
Guar gum (Oct)
Support is 7750 and Resistance is at 8050.
Break and sustain below 7750 will take it to 7620—7550 and the 7400 mark in near term else it could touch its resistance level of 8050.
Fresh buying can be seen above 8050 only.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Support seen at 5900 and Resistance is at 6400
Buy and accumulate in panic with stop loss of 5900 on closing basis. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 6400 will see sharp upside rally in it.
RM Seed
Support seen at 3780 and resistance is at 3850.
Break and sustain above 3850 will take it to 3930---4000++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3780.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3780.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3050 and Resistance is 3155.
Break and sustain above 3155 will take it to 3190---3240 and then 3400++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 3050.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3050 only.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil
Support is 1180 and Resistance is 1230.
Look positive on chart and likely to touch 1230. Weekly close above 1230 will take it to 1290---1320+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1180.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 1180 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Support at 540 and Resistance at 552
Above 552 rally likely to continue till 550—565+++ mark else it could test it's support again.
Overall trend looks positive but trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
