Fundamental Aspect
Cotton futures on MCX counter showed a strong up move today keeping bias on positive side ahead. Prices are closely monitoring arrival progress in northern region which has delayed due to unfavourable weather condition. IMD Forecast of heavy rainfall in Punjab and Haryana for next two days may lead to delay in arrivals and may cause prices to move up further at futures platform. Moreover, slower monsoon progress in Gujarat and reports of pest attack incidence in some part of central region is also likely to help prices to trade higher in near term. Beside, mounting concerns over crop damage in US caused by hurricane Harvey could be another factor to lead prices higher in coming days. Crop damage in US may turn beneficial for Indian exporters as India is the second largest exporter of cotton after US.
At sowing front, overall cotton acreages have been higher by 16.71 % y/y till end of August as about 119.67 lakh hac was sown under cotton till 25th Aug Aug compare to 102.54 lakh hac planted last year till date. Total cotton acreages in Gujarat and Maharashtra has increased by 12% y/y and 7% y/y respectively whereas it has been reported to be increased by 47% y/y and 41% y/y in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh respectively. Crop condition is likely to be good in upcoming days owing to above normal monsoon rainfall forecast as IMD projected above normal monsoon rainfall in Gujarat and Maharashtra for next three days.
Soybean futures trade almost dull with positive bias during the session. The area coverage under soybean, as on 1st Sep, is reported down 7.2 % at 105.2 lakh hectares compared to 113.3 lakh hectares at the same period last year, as per government data. As per SOPA, arrivals of soybean were at 74 lakh tonnes (lt) in Oct-Jul, up from 54.5 lt a year ago, while stocks with farmers are at 30.9 lt, up from 796,000 tn a year ago.
Guar futures traded sharply lower from last couple of days on the back of excess rain notices in major producing area coupled with profit booking activity also marked at higher levels. In the medium term, guar futures are likely to remain limited on lower level’s buying. Rising crop failure concerns likely to spur speculators to enlarge long positions at futures platform. Cumulative monsoon rainfall in Bikaner, Ganganager and Hanumangargh has been below normal till second half of Aug recorded at -7%, -32% and -18% of LPA. Besides, reports of crop damage in northern Gujarat and lower acreages in Haryana could influence prices positively.
Technical Aspect (Sep)
Jeera
Support at 19400 and Resistance at 20000---20300.
Break and sustain above 20000 will take it to 20300 mark else could touch its support level of 19400.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 19400.
Trade safely with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4550 and Resistance at 4630.
Break and sustain with volume above 4630 will take it to 4680---4750 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 4550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4550 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric
Support is at 7500 and Resistance is at 7900.
Break and sustain above 7900 will take it to 8050—8200 and then to 8350++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 7500
Fresh selling can be seen below 7500
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Oct)
Overall trend still looks negative on charts. Hurdle and stop loss above 3950 on closing basis.
Close below 3650 will take to 3520---3450 mark in days to come.
Trade with levels only.
Guar gum (Oct)
Looks weak on chart. Support is 7750 and Resistance is at 8150.
Break and sustain below 7750 will take it to 7620—7500 and the 7300 mark in near term could touch its resistance level of 8150.
Fresh buying can be seen above 8150 only.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
We are holding sell position in Chana from 6140.
Overall trend still looks negative on charts. Support seen at 5850 and Resistance is at 6280.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 5850.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Support seen at 3750 and resistance is at 3830.
Break and sustain above 3830 will take it to 3880---3940 and then 4000++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3750.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 3830.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3080 and Resistance is 3150.
Break and sustain above 3150 will take it to 3190---3240 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 3080.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3080 only.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil
Support is 1155 and Resistance is 1195.
Break and sustain above 1195 will take it to 1208---1230+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1155.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 1155 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Holding Long from 521 and now trading around 530
Rally remain to continue till 536—545 and 558++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 519
Fresh selling can be initiated below 519 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
