Fundamental Aspect
Chana futures traded with positive bias during the session. Stockists have increased their buying position due to festive demand from dal millers as well as there has been pick-up in demand from retailers against restricted supplies from producing regions have pushed prices of pulses upside. Arrivals of chana in Delhi were pegged at 525 tn, unchanged from Saturday, while in Bikaner, it was 700 bags (1 bag =100 kg) up from 500 bags. Food grain output in the ongoing 2017-18 kharif season is likely to surpass last year’s record of 138.04 million tonnes due to higher acreage and good monsoon for the second straight year. Pulses covered 121.28 lakh hectares as against 116.95 lakh hectare during the same period.
Soybean futures traded marginally higher as speculators enlarged their positions, tracking good demand and reports of deficient rains in soybean planting districts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. Further, supply worries following reports of lower acreages in the country too supported soybean prices. The area coverage under soybean, as on 18th August, is reported down by 9 % at 102.3 lakh hectares compared to 112.5 lakh hectares at the same period last year. The U.S. Agriculture Department's forecast for a record crop kept the gains in check. In Export Sales report, USDA showed old crop soybean sales of 453,220 MT for the week of August 10, which was up 10 % from last week’s sales and 154.8% larger than a year ago. While, new crop sales came in at 899,429 MT, a 40.7% increase over a week ago but 43.7% below last year. Safras and Mercado estimate Brazil soybean exports for 2017-18 at 64.5 MMT, nearly 24% higher than the 2016-17, with crush projected at 41 MMT.
Jeera futures traded higher on lower arrivals as the jeera production in India fell by 13 % year-on-year basis to 3.87 lakh tons in 2016-17. Moreover, rising demand at the spot market ahead of the festival season too fuelled the uptrend. The prices have been quite volatile on reports of lower arrivals in Gujarat on expectation of damage to stored jeera due to heavy rains but fresh selling in the far month contract (Sep contract) is keeping the prices down. The arrivals have been improving in the physical market. As per the trader source, jeera arrival during first 20 days in August increase to 4261.4 tonnes as compared to 2422.6 tonnes during first 20 days in July. As per the latest government data, Jeera exports during first five months in 2017 is 5039 tonnes, up 9.7% compared to last year exports volume for the same period.
CPO traded sharply higher during the session tracking strong cues from the International prices and expectation of higher demand for coming festival season. Moreover, higher import duty also supports prices. Recent, government raised import duty on crude palm oil to 15% from 7.5%, and on refined palm oil to 25% from 15% but higher stocks in the country is having bearish impact. According to SEA release, during November-July period, palm oil import increased to 67.41 lakh tonnes from 61.75 lakh tonnes during the same period of the previous oil year.
Technical Aspect (Sep)
Jeera
Support at 19550 and Resistance at 20000---20300.
Looks positive. Break and close above 20000 will take it to 20200 ---20300 and the to 20700++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 19550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 19550
Castor Seed
Support at 4650 and Resistance at 4820.
Break and close above 4820 with volume will take it to 4950---5050++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 4650.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4650 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric
If unable to breach its support of 7200, we can see a “U” turn in it.
Support is at 7200 and Resistance is at 7550.
Break and close above 7550 will take it to 7680—7800 and then 8000++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 7200.
Fresh selling can be seen below 7200.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya (Sep)
Support seen at 4730 and Resistance is 4930.
Break and sustain with volume above 4930 will take it to 5150---5400++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 4730.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4730 only.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Oct)
Our buy call from 3950 to 4130 proven great and made a high of 4139 today.
Now what to expect?
Support at 4000 and Resistance at 4130---4200.
Close above 4200 will take it to 4280---4330 and then 4400++mark else could touch its support level of 4000.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4000 only.
Trade with levels only.
Guar gum (Oct)
If unable to breach its support of 8200, we can see a smart recovery in it.
Support is at 8250 and Resistance is at 8650.
Break and sustain above 8650 will take it to 8850—9000++mark in near terms.
Fresh selling can be seen below 8250.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our buy call 5640 to 5838 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 5600 and Resistance is at 5850.
Break and close above 5850 will take it to 5980—6200++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 5600.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 5600 only.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Already released report on it. Immediate support seen at 3770 and resistance is at 3850.
Break and sustain above 3850 will take it to 3920---3970 and then 4000++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3770.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Our buy call of Soyabean skyrocketed from 3175---3250.
Now what to expect???
Support seen at 3150 and Resistance is 3280.
Looks positive and every decline will be a buying opportunity in it. Break and sustain above 3280 will take it to 3350---3420++mark in near terms
Revise stop loss of 3150
Mentha oil (Aug)
Support is 1160 and Resistance is 1194.
Break and sustain above 1194 will take it to 1208---1225+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1160.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Aug)
Support is 507 and Resistance is 519
Looks positive. Break and sustain above 519 will take it to 526---539+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 507.
We will not sell.... Wait for healthy correction to buy CPO.
More will update soon!!
