Fundamental Aspect
Soybean futures traded slightly higher tracking good physical demand and reports of deficient rains in soybean planting districts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra. The area coverage under soybean, as on 18th August, is reported down by 9 % at 102.3 lakh hectares compared to 112.5 lakh hectares at the same period last year. The U.S. Agriculture Department's forecast for a record crop kept the gains in check. In Export Sales report, USDA showed old crop soybean sales of 453,220 MT for the week of August 10, which was up 10 % from last week’s sales and 154.8% larger than a year ago. While, new crop sales came in at 899,429 MT, a 40.7% increase over a week ago but 43.7% below last year. Safras and Mercado estimate Brazil soybean exports for 2017-18 at 64.5 MMT, nearly 24% higher than the 2016-17, with crush projected at 41 MMT.
Chana futures traded with positive bias during the session. Stockists have increased their buying position due to festive demand from dal millers as well as there has been pick-up in demand from retailers against restricted supplies from producing regions have pushed prices of pulses upside. Food grain output in the ongoing 2017-18 kharif season is likely to surpass last year’s record of 138.04 million tonnes due to higher acreage and good monsoon for the second straight year. Pulses covered 121.28 lakh hectares as against 116.95 lakh hectare during the same period. Looking at above mentioned factors Chana is expected to trade with upside bias in near trading session.
Jeera futures traded higher on lower arrivals as the jeera production in India fell by 13 % year-on-year basis to 3.87 lakh tons in 2016-17. Moreover, rising demand at the spot market ahead of the festival season too fuelled the uptrend. The prices have been quite volatile on reports of lower arrivals in Gujarat on expectation of damage to stored jeera due to heavy rains but fresh selling in the far month contract (Sep contract) is keeping the prices down. As per the trader source, jeera arrival during in July dropped to 3,668 tonnes as compared with the June arrival data. In June, arrival recorded at 8,072 tonnes. As per the latest data release by government, Jeera exports during first five months in 2017 is 5039 tonnes, which is noted up 9.7% compared to last year exports volume for the same period.
Mentha oil futures traded higher on MCX as speculators enlarged positions amid pick-up in demand from consuming industries at domestic spot market. Besides, restricted supplies from the major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too supported the uptrend.
Technical Aspect (Sep)
Jeera
Support at 19550 and Resistance at 19900.
Looks positive. Break and close above 19900 will take it to 20250 ---20500 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 19550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 19550.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4650 and Resistance at 4820.
Rally likely to continue. Break and close above 4820 with volume will take it to 4950---5050++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 4650.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4650 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric
If unable to breach its support of 7200, we can see a “U” turn in it.
Support is at 7200 and Resistance is at 7550.
Break and close above 7550 will take it to 7680—7800 and then 8000++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 7200.
Fresh selling can be seen below 7200.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3850 and Resistance at 3950---4130.
Close above 3950 rally likely to continue till 4130 and then 4400++mark else could touch its support level of 3850.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3850 only.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Support seen at 5525 and Resistance is at 5640.
Looks positive. Break and close above 5640 will take it to 5700—5760++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 5525.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 5525.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Support seen at 3750-3680 and resistance IS at 3830.
Looks positive. Break and sustain above 3830 will take it to 3880---3950 and then 4000++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3750.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3680.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil (Aug)
Support is 1194 and Resistance is 1230.
Rally likely to continue. Break and sustain above 1230 will take it to 1245---1270+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1194.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 1194 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
