Fundamental Aspect
Monsoon Alert (IMD): Heavy rains and flash floods are likely in parts of Gujarat, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and northern Madhya Pradesh this week. The risk for flooding will be greatest underneath the monsoon low in Gujarat. So far, nine people have died due to floods after very heavy rains in Gujarat, private weather forecaster Sky met had said. On Sunday, Gujarat recorded 395% above normal rainfall at 48.4 mm. During Jun 1-Jul 17, the state received 283.1 mm rainfall, 20% above the normal weighted average of 236.3 mm, the IMD said. Gujarat is a major grower of cotton, groundnut, and castor, while Odisha is among the leading growers of paddy, oilseeds and pulses in the country. Flash floods may damage the standing and sown crops.
Soybean August futures traded moderately lower on the hope that monsoon rains in soybean areas in MP, Maharashtra and Rajasthan may likely to boost crop. However, as per the government data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was reported at 73.44 lakh hectares till last week, down about 11.7% on year. Last year, the acreage was marked at 83.14 lakh hectares. The market arrivals have been diminishing and there is also good demand. As per the SOPA, India's exports of soymeal rises to 56.1% on year to 64,000 tonnes in June. As of June-end, soybean inventories with farmers were at 36 lakh tonnes, over three times the amount a year ago.
Turmeric showing some pressure initially due to profit booking activity which is likely to emerge at higher level .Over the medium term outlook will remain higher due to rising physical demand from upcountry buyers and stockists as Telangana, highest producing turmeric state, has received large deficient rains (-48% LPA) last week. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 13-Jul-17, up 14.3% to 24,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 21,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per the trader source, about 8,627 tonnes arrived in first 15 days in July compared to 10,703 tonnes in previous fortnight. As per the data release by government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is marked at 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.
Jeera futures traded lower due to profit booking activity marked at the higher level while, medium to long term trend will remain higher on account of increased buying by retailers and stockists at the spot market. Furthermore, fall in supplies from producing belts also supported the upside. Arrival during the month of June marked lower this year compared to May as well as June last year. As per the data release by government, jeera exports in April 2017 was 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016/17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in as per the data release by Dept. of commerce, GOI. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse increased to 1,313 tonnes as on July 10 from 1,187 tonnes on Jun 30. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,482 tonnes.
Technical Aspect
Jeera (Aug)
Our buy call in Jeera from 18650 to 20135 proven great.
Now what to expect???
Support at 19500 and Resistance at 20200.
We will maintain our bullish view in it. Close above 20200 will see sharp upside rally in it towards 20500---20850+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support of 19500.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Aug)
Support at 4550 and Resistance at 4680.
Looks positive and likely to touch 4680 in near term. Close above 4680 will take it to 4730---4770++ mark else could touch its support level of 4550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4550 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Aug)
Look at Power of Alert>>>> Turmeric hit lower circuit today.
Yesterday clearly indicated that 7800---8000 act as major hurdle and we will see correction in it.
Don't jump to buy at all... On rise will sell but wait for confirmation.
Major Support is at 7300---7150 and Resistance at 7800---8000.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3350 and Resistance at 3440.
Close above 3440 upside rally likely to continue towards 3480 and 3530++ mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 3350.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3350 only.
Trade with levels only.
Soya bean (Aug)
Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3060.
Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980---2960 for the upside level of 3060---3130 mark
Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.
Trade with levels only.
Soyaref (Aug)
Support at 636 and resistance is 645.
Either side break and sustain will decide further trend in it.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya (Aug)
Support at 4800 and resistance is 5200.
Now what to expect?
Can accumulate more buy on decline near 5000 which will take it to 5200---5350 mark else could touch its support level of 4800.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4800.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (Aug)
Support seen at 3550 and resistance seen at 3720.
Close above 3720 will take it to 3800---3860 and then 4000+++ mark in days to come else, could touch its support level of 3550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3550.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil (July)
Support seen at 935 and resistance is at 970.
Break and close above 970 will take it to 988 and 1005 ++mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 935.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 935 mark.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
