Fundamental Aspect
Monsoon Alert (IMD): India recorded 9.9 mm rainfall on Sunday, 3% above the normal weighted average of 9.6 mm during the day. Out of the 36 subdivisions, 10 received excess to large-excess rainfall, 18 recorded deficient to large-deficient rains, and seven received normal showers. One sub-division recorded no rainfall for the day. The weather department terms 60% above normal showers as "large-excess”. Rainfall at 60-99% below normal is termed "large-deficient", while 20-59% below-normal precipitation is categorised as deficient rains. During Jun 1-Jul 16, India received normal rainfall at 308.2 mm for the period, data from the weather department showed. On Saturday, the country received 10.2 mm rainfall, 8% above the normal weighted average of 9.4 mm during the day.
Turmeric futures traded sharply higher on the back of rising domestic as well as export demand in the spot market. Besides, restricted supplies and slow pace of sowing in producing states also added support to turmeric prices’ uptrend. The main reason for the bullishness is that the rainfall in turmeric growing regions in Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Maharashtra during the first 40 days of the four-month southwest monsoon has been below normal, which may have an adverse impact on the standing turmeric crops. In Telangana (highest producing turmeric state), turmeric acreage as on 10-Jul-17, up 9.5% to 23,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 21,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per the trader source, about 27,448 tonnes arrived in June compared to 73,436 tonnes during previous month. As per the data release by government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.
Jeera futures traded with an uptrend on account of increased buying by retailers and stockists at the spot market. Furthermore, fall in supplies from producing belts also supported the upside. Arrival during the month of June marked lower this year compared to May as well as June last year. As per the data release by government, jeera exports in April 2017 was 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016/17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in as per the data release by Dept. of commerce, GOI. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse increased to 1,313 tonnes as on July 10 from 1,187 tonnes on Jun 30. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,482 tonnes.
Soybean August futures traded almost flat with lower bias due to fresh selling by the market participants on the back of profit booking activity but, the medium term prices likely to ticked up on expectation of good physical buying at lower level along with expected good rally in edible oils in near term. Soybean prices likely to improved further due to low price realization to farmers in the last season is discouraging sowing prospects for soybean in the country. As per the USDA latest report of July Supply/Demand, The U.S. soybean ending stocks continue to tighten. However, yield estimates remain unchanged and the supply numbers remain big, giving the trade a negative signal. As a result, the markets trade lower following the report .For 2016-2017, U.S. soybean ending stocks at 410 million bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 430 million and USDA’s June estimate of 450 million. For 2017-2018, the USDA sees the U.S. soybean ending stocks at 460 million bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 495 million bushels and USDA’s June estimate of 495 million.
Technical Aspect
Jeera (Aug)
Our buy call in Jeera from 18650 to 20145 proven great.
Now what to expect???
Support at 19700 and Resistance at 20200.
We will maintain our bullish view in it. Close above 20200 will see sharp upside rally in it towards 20500---20850+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support of 19700.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Aug)
Our buy call in Castor seed from 4480 to 4655 proven great.
Now what to expect???
Support at 4500 and Resistance at 4700.
Looks positive and close above 4700 will take it to 4850---4930+++ mark else could touch its support level of 4500 again
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4500 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Aug)
Our buy call in Turmeric from 7120 to 7500 proven great on Friday.
Now what to expect?
Support at 7500 and Resistance at 7800---8000.
Likely to touch 7800-8000 where we expect a bit correction.
Fresh buying can be initiated on two consecutive close above 8000 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3380 and Resistance at 3470.
Looks positive and likely to touch 3470 again. Close above 3470 upside rally likely to continue towards 3540 and 3570++ mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 3380.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3380 only.
Trade with levels only.
Soya bean (Aug)
Support seen at 2900.
Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980---2960 for the upside level of 3060---3130 mark
Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.
Trade with levels only.
Soyaref (Aug)
Support at 636 and resistance is 645.
Either side break and sustain will decide further trend in it.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya (Aug)
Support at 4800 and resistance is 5200.
Now what to expect?
Can accumulate more buy on decline which will take it to 5350---5500+++mark
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4800.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (Aug)
Support seen at 3550 and resistance seen at 3720.
Looks positive and close above 3720 will take it to 3800---3860 and then 4000+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3550.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil (July)
Support seen at 930 and resistance is at 980.
Break and sustain above 980 will take it to 998 and 1020 ++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 930.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 930 mark.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
