Fundamental Aspect
Monsoon Alert (IMD): Heavy rainfall is likely in some parts of southern India till Monday. Heavy rains are "very likely" over parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh on Monday, while coastal Karnataka may receive heavy showers during Fri-Mon. Coastal Andhra Pradesh has so far in the Jun-Sep monsoon season received 19% above normal rains, while coastal Karnataka has recorded 14% below normal rainfall. Crops such as rice, jowar and bajra are grown in the region, and rains at this time would help sowing operations.
Jeera futures traded up on account of increased buying by retailers and stockists at the spot market. Furthermore, fall in supplies from producing belts also supported the upside. Arrival during the month of June marked lower this year compared to May as well as June last year. As per the data release by government, jeera exports in April 2017 was 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016/17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in as per the data release by Dept. of commerce, GOI. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse increased to 1,313 tonnes as on July 10 from 1,187 tonnes on Jun 30. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,482 tonnes.
Turmeric futures traded moderately lower on the back of profit booking activity at higher level while medium term trend will remain higher due to rising domestic as well as export demand in the spot market. Besides, restricted supplies and slow pace of sowing in producing states also added support to turmeric prices’ uptrend. In Telangana (highest producing turmeric state), turmeric acreage as on 10-Jul-17, up 9.5% to 23,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 21,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per the trader source, about 27,448 tonnes arrived in June compared to 73,436 tonnes during previous month. As per the data release by government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.
Soybean August futures traded almost flat with lower bias due to fresh selling by the market participants on the back of profit booking activity. As per SOPA’s latest release, as of June-end soybean inventories with farmers were at 36 lakh tonnes, over three times the amount a year ago. As per the release, India's exports of soymeal rose 56.1% on year to 64,000 tonnes in June. Moreover, Government data marked, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 53.6 lakh hectares till last week, up by about 10% on year. Last year, the acreage was 48.6 lakh hectares. As per the USDA latest report of July Supply/Demand, The U.S. soybean ending stocks continue to tighten. However, yield estimates remain unchanged and the supply numbers remain big, giving the trade a negative signal. As a result, the markets trade lower following the report .For 2016-2017, U.S. soybean ending stocks at 410 million bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 430 million and USDA’s June estimate of 450 million. For 2017-2018, the USDA sees the U.S. soybean ending stocks at 460 million bushels vs. the trade’s estimate of 495 million bushels and USDA’s June estimate of 495 million.
Technical Aspect
Jeera (Aug)
Our buy call in Jeera from 18650 proven great and made a high of 19660 today.
Now what to expect???
Support at 19000 and Resistance at 19700.
Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 19700 will see sharp upside rally till 20600---21200+++ mark in days to come.
Support and revise stop loss of 19000 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Aug)
Our buy call in Castor seed from 4480 to 4550 proven great and made a high of 4542 today.
Now what to expect???
Support at 4470 and Resistance at 4580.
Looks positive and could test it's resistance. Close above 4580 will take it to 4630---4680 mark
Revise stop loss at cost to cost.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Aug)
Our buy call in Turmeric from 7120 to 7550 proven great yesterday.
Now what to expect?
Support at 7300 and Resistance at 7550.
Expect a bit correction here if prices gives weekly close below 7300.
Sustainable move below 7300 will take it to 7180—7050 and then 6920 mark else could touch its resistance level of 7550.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 7550 mark.
Trade with levels only. If anything seems reversal will update you.
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3350 and Resistance at 3410.
Below 3350 downside panic likely to continue towards 3310 and 3280 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3410.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 3410 only.
Trade with levels only.
Soya bean (Aug)
Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3060---3130
Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980 for the upside level of 3060---3130 mark
Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.
Trade with levels only.
Soyaref (Aug)
Support at 638 and resistance is 649.
Either side break and sustain will decide further trend in it.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya (Aug)
Support at 4800 and resistance is 5200.
Now what to expect?
Looks positive and accumulate more on decline which will take it to 5350---5500++mark
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4800.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (Aug)
Support seen at 3540 and resistance seen at 3670
Close above 3670 will take it to 3740---3800 and then 4000+++ mark in days to come.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3540.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil (July)
Support seen at 935 and resistance is at 954.
Panic likely to continue below 935. Close below 935 will take it to 918 and 905 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 954.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 954 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (July)
Support seen at 482 and Resistance is at 488.
Either side break and sustain will decide further trend in it.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
