Fundamental Aspect
Monsoon Alert: The IMD warned in his latest report quoted ‘heavy to heavy rainfall’ over the next five days in several parts across the nation. As per the latest forecast, rainfall would escalate at the western coast, along with parts of northern and north-eastern India. The incessant rainfall is expected to begin from today in the north-east, with areas of Assam and Meghalaya, along with the Sub-Himalayan region of Darjeeling and Sikkim receiving heavy rains. The severe impact of monsoon is expected to be felt today in parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and eastern Uttar Pradesh as well.
Soybean August futures traded higher as market participants are little bullish as irregular monsoon and low price realization to farmers in the last season is discouraging sowing prospects for soybean in the country. Area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 53.6 lakh hectares till last week, up by about 10% on year. Last year, the acreage was 48.6 lakh hectares. However, in CBOT soybean futures also rallied on hotter and drier forecasts for important growing areas of the U.S. Midwest. Soybeans posted weekly gains of around 6 % last week. It was the biggest weekly rally for soybeans since October 2014. Moreover, lower than expected acreage and lower rating of the US crop. US weekly exports were the lowest since the first week of the 16-17 MY, at 278,669 MT, but were 43.2% above last year.
Turmeric jumped higher by 6.64% last week with higher volumes as Telangana, highest producing turmeric state, has received large deficient rains (-60% LPA) last week. Moreover, in Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 05-Jul-17, down 18% to 14,556 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 17,784 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per the trader source, about 27,448 tonnes arrived in June compared to 73,436 tonnes during previous month. As per the data release by government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.
Sugar prices continued to trade higher as supplies to north India are likely to be affected for a week starting Jul 12 when processions to Haridwar would block traffic on some routes connecting western Uttar Pradesh and Delhi. As a result, sugar prices are seen rising in the near term. The outlook on prices in the long term would depend on whether the government raises the import duty on sugar as food ministry has sent a letter to the revenue secretary in this regard. Currently, raw sugar and white sugar attract a customs duty of 40%.Last month, the country's sugar mills had urged the government to raise import duty on sugar to 60% as low global prices had made imports viable even at the existing 40% duty. The goods and services tax is expected to have a "neutral" impact on the sugar sector, barring in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, ratings agency ICRA had said in a report earlier this month. In these two states, the previous effective tax rate, including excise duty, cess, and additional 5% value-added tax, was at 10%. The new tax rate of 5% would have a positive impact, making the sweetener cheaper.
Technical Aspect
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3350 and Resistance at 3500.
Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 3500. More and more upside rally will see on close above 3500 mark
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3350 only.
Soya bean (Aug)
Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3130.
Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980 for the upside level of 3130---3180 mark
Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.
Soyaref (July)
Support at 638 and resistance is 645.
Looks positive and close above 645 will take it to 655 and 664 in near terms
Fresh selling can be seen below 638.
Dhaniya (Aug)
Support at 4980 and resistance is 5200.
Now what to expect?
Looks positive and likely to touch its immediate resistance of 5200. Close above 5200 will fuel more power in it else could touch its support level of 4980.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4980.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (Aug)
Support seen at 3540 and resistance seen at 3700.
Looks positive on charts. Close above 3700 will take it to 3780---3840 and then 4000+++ mark in days to come.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3540.
Mentha oil (July)
Support seen at 935 and resistance is at 955.
Close above 955 could see more upside till 968 and 980 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 935.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 935 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (July)
Above 488... Rally likely to continue till 493---497 and then to 503 mark
Support seen at 481
Fresh selling can be seen below 481.
Trade with levels only. Anything seems reversal we will update.
More will update soon!!
