Fundamental Aspect
Jeera futures traded lower on NCDEX as speculators engaged in trimming their positions to book profits at prevailing levels amid lower domestic and exports demand at the spot market. Furthermore, huge stocks at the spot markets following higher supplies from the major growing regions in Gujarat and Rajasthan too fuelled the downtrend. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016/17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates and almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lakh tonnes. The arrivals have been lower during April compared to March. As per the traders source, about 30,901 tonnes of jeera arrived compared to 43,831 in previous month. On the export front, country the exports increase by 32.7% to 1, 01,188 tonnes in first 10 month of marketing year 2016/17 reported by Dept. of commerce, GOI.
Coriander futures declined on NCDEX as participants cut down their bets, amid sluggish demand in the spot market. Besides, rising arrivals from major growing regions also influenced coriander futures.
Turmeric futures edged down on NCDEX as participants reduced exposure amid sufficient stocks at the spot markets following pick-up in arrivals from producing belts. NCDEX .As per the trader source, turmeric arrivals in the country lower in April to 92,964 tonnes compared to 1, 35,887 tonnes during March. On the export front, country exported about 89,704 tonnes during April-Jan period, up by 28.3% compared to last year exports of 69,870 tonnes, as per government data. There are expectations of improved demand in coming weeks as prices are lower.
Mentha oil futures traded lower on MCX as investors and speculators exited their positions in the agro-commodity amid sluggish demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced mentha oil prices.
Sugar Futures fell last week due to higher availability of sugar in the domestic market as government extends curbs on holding of sugar stocks by six months for the sugar dealers and traders. As per USDA, India’s sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2017/18 (Oct-Sept) is expected to increase by 18% to 25.8 mt. Uttar Pradesh will be the largest producer of sugar in India, followed by Maharashtra. As per trade sources, Maharashtra's sugarcane acreage in 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) is likely to rise 29% on year to 900,000 ha.
Technical Aspect
Soybean
Support at 2850 and Resistance at 2935
Looks weak and its likely to touch its support level of 2850.
Break and sustain below 2850 will take it to 2790—2745 mark else could touch its resistance level of 2935 again.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 2935.
Soyref
Support at 605 and Resistance 615
Weekly close below 605 will take to 592---588 and then 576 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 615
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 615 mark. Major hurdle at 628
Trade with levels only
Dhaniya
We still maintained our selling view below 6900….for 5800—5300 and then to 4500.
Support at 6000. Break and close below 6000 will see further downside move till 5800---5650 and then to 5300 mark
Immediate hurdle at 6400
Trade in a range with levels only
Jeera
Support at 18350 and Resistance at 19600
Looks weak and weekly close below 18350 will see a sharp downside towards 17600---17200 and then to 16500 mark in days to come else it could touch its resistance level of 19600 again.
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 19600 mark.
Trend- Sideways Lower
RM Seed
Support at 3700 and Resistance is 3800
Momentum looks weak and if prices gives daily close below 3700 will see a sharp downside towards 3645---3600 else could touch its resistance level of 3800 again
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3800 mark
Trade in a range with levels only
TMC
Clearly indicated that we are highly bearish in Turmeric.
Crucial Support is 5500 and Resistance is 5800
Weekly close below 5500 will see fresh round of selling towards 5350---5200.
Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 5200 will take to ???
Revise stop loss of 5800. Any reversal seems will update.
Cocudakl
Support seen at 1900 while resistance can be defined as 1985
Looks rebound and weekly close above 1985 could touch 2040 and then 2110 mark in days to come else it may test its support level of 1900 again
Fresh selling can be seen only below 1900 will take to 1845---1730 and then to 1650+ mark.
Trend- Sideways
Mentha oil
Support at 920 and resistance at 955
Weekly close below 920 further weakness can be seen till 898---885 mark else could test its resistance level of 955 again.
Trade with levels only
CPO
Support at 488 and Resistance at 495---498
Close below 488 will take to 483---476 mark. More and more downside panic will see only weekly close below 476 else it could test it's resistance level of 495---498 again
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
