Rupee surrenders early gains; concludes weak on dollar demand
Extending losses for the fourth straight session, Indian rupee ended marginally lower against dollar on Monday due to dollar demand from banks and importers. Rupee was strong in the early deals but lost its momentum in the end.
Sentiments remained dampened with the report that foreign investors have pulled out over Rs 5,100 crore from the Indian capital market so far this month over concerns regarding 'lower prospects' of economic growth as compared to other emerging markets.
The latest FPI outflow followed withdrawal of close to Rs 77,000 crore on net basis from equity and debts together in last three months (October-December). Meanwhile, describing the official data on the index of industrial production (IIP) for November 2016, during which demonetisation was announced, as a ‘false positive’, Crisil Research has said that the latest IIP figures do not reflect the true condition of the Indian manufacturing sector. Belying popular expectations,
India's factory output, as measured by the IIP released earlier this month, has rose 5.7% in November, the first month of the government's demonetisation drive. On the global front, dollar weakened against a wide range of currencies on Monday amid disappointment that U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration speech proved light on detail over his plans for economic stimulus.
Finally, the rupee ended at 68.21, 3 paise weaker from its previous close of 68.18 on Friday. The currency touched a high and low of 68.22 and 68.01 respectively.
The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) reference rate for the dollar stood at 68.08 and for Euro stood at 73.14 on January 23, 2017. While the RBI’s reference rate for the Yen stood at 60.10, the reference rate for the Great Britain Pound (GBP) stood at 84.64.The reference rates are based on 12 noon rates of a few select banks in Mumbai.
USDINR
Support at 68.00 and resistance at 68.30
Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 68.30. Further upside rally will see if close above 68.30 else could test its support level of 68.00
Fresh selling can be initiated below 68.00
GBPINR
We clearly indicated GBP-INR looks positive 84.80…it made high of 85.34.
Now what to expect??
Support at 84.85 and resistance at 85.35
Trend looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 85.35. Further upside rally will see if closes above 85.35 else could touch its support level of 84.85
Revise stop loss of 84.85
EURINR
Support at 73.00 and resistance at 73.40
Break and sustain above 73.40 will take it to 73.80---74.20+++ mark in days to come else could test its support level of 73.00 again.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 73.00
JPYINR
Support at 60.20 and Resistance at 60.50
Break and sustain below 60.20 will take it to 59.90—59.75 else it could test it's resistance level of 60.50 again.
Break and close above 60.50 will take to 60.80---61.00 and then to 61.30 mark
Trade with levels only
