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Thursday, December 15, 2016

Different Financial Institutions views on Fed fund rate hike.





CLSA ON FOMC: ET NOW



Rate hike of 25 bps by Fed was 100% discounted.

Rate hike might be the start of a more normal tightening cycle.
Yellen emphasised the change in forecasts as only a modest adjustment.

Market does not yet fully discount three rate increases in 2017.

Strong dollar is today's most crowded but that does not necessarily make it wrong.

Twelve months further on we are more confident about the world economy.







JPM ON FOMC: ET NOW



Hike projection is motivated by the recent decline in the unemployment rate outlook.

Revision to rate outlook indicates Committee is skeptical of running a high-pressure economy.

Recognize that the Committee will be sensitive to declines in the unemployment rate.

We continue to look for two hikes next year.





CS ON FOMC: ET NOW



Yellen is skeptical on fiscal stimulus as the Fed hikes rates
There were some additional hawkish surprises in the economic projections.

Some of these hawkish shifts were likely a response to improving data.

The longer-term framework for the FOMC appears unchanged after this meeting.

Overall, the outcome of the December meeting is slightly hawkish.

We continue to expect two hikes in 2017, at the June and December meetings.






UBS ON FOMC: ET NOW



We continue to expect two rate hikes in 2017.

language suggests we will not need to wait another year for another increase.

Lack of a shift in economic forecasts implies that Fed officials are taking a "wait and see" attitude.






MS ON FOMC: ET NOW




The December FOMC meeting delivered a more hawkish message than expected.

Decision resulting in a flatter yield curve with a cheaper intermediate sector.

Further increases in interest rates should be accompanied by curve flattening.

Better economic data or further clarity on changes to fiscal policy needed.






BOFA ON FOMC: ET NOW



We consider today's Fed developments a warning shot to risk assets.

Yellen does not believe fiscal policy easing is needed with a very low 4.6% unemployment rate.

View continues to be that US reflation and decompression with foreign yields is bullish for credit spreads.






CITI ON FOMC: ET NOW



Maintain our stance of projecting two (not three) rate increases for 2017.

Stance is consistent with the continued skepticism in current market pricing of Fed fund futures.

Believe the drag from sustained high rates and the strong dollar may cause data realizations in early 2017.






HSBC ON FED: ET NOW



FOMC offered a hawkish surprise with upward shift in Fed's rate projections.

Yellen suggests dot shift reflects lower unemployment rate, some fiscal stimulus.

We favor buying UST dips; we see further USD strength
We favor buying dips with the 10-year note's yield over 2.5% in the near term.





Source: ET Now