Dollar/Rupee
Sell below 66.65 Target 66.25-66.00. Stop loss above 66.85 (CMP 66.76)
Dollar/rupee witnessed its biggest weekly loss since 3 July 2016 and settled at 67.0850 compare to previous week close of 67.3875 levels on the back of overseas funds inflow into local stocks amid dollar selling by foreign banks. Dollar/Rupee reacted neutral on Gross domestic product growth data which eased to 7.1% in the Apr-Jun quarter compared to 7.5% in the corresponding period a year ago and 7.6% in the last quarter of the fiscal year in the year ago period. Sell strategy given around 67.50 was initiated, and pair hit first predicted level of 67.00.
Technically, on the weekly chart pair yet trading below the medium term support line while formed a long bearish candle stick both of which are indicating for bearishness in USDINR.
Further, massive resistance for the week is seen at 67.65 and sustain trade above only will expect to test 67.90-68.10.
Dollar Index
The dollar index retraced from the weekly high 96.25 and settled at 95.87. Greenback found some support after Fed Chairwoman Yellen was appeared to open the door to raise interest rates, however she did not give any indication on the officials' next month monetary policy stance.
The jobs growth in August came in below expectations, which reducing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when it meets later this month.
Technically, on the weekly chart dollar took support of its previous swing low which creating probabilities for momentum upside move towards 96.30-97.00.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at 93.80 and pair would need to trade below it in order to test 93.25-92.80.
EUR-INR
Sell around 74.75-74.85 Target 74.10-73.80. Stop loss above 76.10.
EURINR retraced from the weekly high 76.34 and settled at 75.1075 down 1.27% for the week. Euro remained broadly lower tracking to the strength of the greenback which gained on hope of upbeat US private jobs data. However actual data came below than expectation.
Sell strategy given on rise 76.15-76.25 was successful with pair drop towards second target 75.20. This week, ECB meeting and Mario Draghi’s press conference may drag volatility on 8 September.
Technical, a turn back from the symmetrical triangle is yet indicating for bearishness in the EURINR. On the other hand, break above the 76.40 only could give decent bullish rally towards 77.50-78.00 and above.
GBP-INR
Sell around 88.85-88.95 Target 88.55-88.20. Stop loss above 89.20
Above 89.20 will expect to test 89.55-89.85
GBP recovered from the weekly low of 88.0675 and tested 89.1975 before closing at 88.9375 levels. A better than expected UK manufacturing PMI data eased concerns over Brexit's impact on United Kingdom's economy.
The pound was supported by batter then UK construction PMI which improved to 49.2 in August versus a forecast of 46.1.
Technically, on the weekly chart GBPINR looks to witness momentum gain, however it may remained limited towards 89.80 which is coincide with 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Further, on the upside massive resistance is seen at 90.25 and sustain trade above only will expect to test 91.80-92.25.
JPY-INR
Sell below 64.80 Target 64.20-63.90. Stop loss above 65.10
Japanese Yen remains in a strong sell and plunged 3.30% last week, settled at 64.8323 as dollar continued its surge against major currencies to trade at over two-week high on fears Federal Reserve may hike its interest rates soon.
The strength of the US dollar and the move away from safe haven is helping the yen to dip a bit. As was expected pair drop below than predicted level of 66.20.
Technically, a double drop pattern on the weekly chart is yet indicating for bearishness in the pair and it may test 63.50-62.80 very soon.
High Impact Economic Data & Events Schedule during the week
Date
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Impact
|
05.09.16
|
8:00am
|
JPY
|
BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Services PMI
|
49.1
|
47.4
|
Positive
| |
06.09.16
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
|
55.4
|
55.5
|
Negative
|
07.09.16
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing Production m/m
|
-0.40%
|
-0.30%
|
Negative
|
6:45pm
|
GBP
|
Inflation Report Hearings
|
-
|
-
|
-
| |
08.09.16
|
Tentative
|
CNY
|
Trade Balance
|
372B
|
343B
|
Positive
|
5:15pm
|
EUR
|
Minimum Bid Rate
|
0.00%
|
0.00%
|
Neutral
| |
6:00pm
|
EUR
|
ECB Press Conference
|
-
|
-
|
-
| |
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
-
|
263K
|
-
|
