Commodity Round UP
Key highlights
-US crude down 3% after big stockpile build report
-The copper market once again hit a fresh low with building LME stocks and a rebounding dollar combining to sink the red metal.
-Gold also slipped in negative territory and was last trading at $1,330 per ounce with hawkish Fed rhetoric applying pressure.
Bullion
Gold futures traded lower on MCX as traders hesitant to make big bets ahead of a highly anticipated speech from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen later this week.
Fed Chair Yellen may provide fresh clues on the timing of the next U.S. rate hike at a speech during an annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.
The annual Fed symposium has sometimes been used by Fed chairs to make important policy statements.
Odds for a rate hike as early as next month mounted following hawkish comments from several Fed officials in recent days, including Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and New York Fed President William Dudley.
The contract for October delivery was closed at Rs 31034.00, down by 1.07% or Rs 336.00 from its previous closing of Rs 31370.00.The open interest of the contract stood at 9273.00 lots.
Energy
Crude oil futures traded lower on MCX, in tune with a weak trend in Asian trade after industry data showing an increase in US crude stocks added to oversupply worries and traders took advantage of a recent rally to book profits. The Industry-funded American Petroleum Institute (API) said that US crude oil supplies rose 4.46 million barrels last week. The larger-than-expected US stockpile build overshadowed media reports that Iran was willing to join calls by OPEC and Russia for production curbs after scuttling previous efforts to reach a deal in April.
Gasoline and distillate stocks also rose, the EIA said, driving down oil prices that had mostly risen in the past two weeks on speculation of an output freeze by major producers led by OPEC.
The contract for September delivery was closed at Rs 3150.00, down by 2.75% or Rs 89.00 from its previous closing of Rs 3239.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 13099 lots.
Base Metals
Base metals softer, copper and Aluminium stocks jump in Asia
Base metals were under pressure on Wednesday morning on the LME from continued increases in aluminium and copper stocks.
The Copper come under pressure from continued stock increases in LME-bonded warehouses.
Total stocks increased a net 14,625 tonnes to 254,700 tonnes – the biggest increase was in Singapore at 12,550 tonnes, lifting the total there to 66,975 tonnes.
Copper futures traded lower on MCX as investors cast aside improved China data which showed a pickup in the world’s biggest economy. The China leading index rose 0.7 per cent in July from June, when it advanced 0.5 per cent. Traders were also cautious ahead of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday which may offer more clues over when the Fed plans to raise interest rates next.
The contract for August delivery was Closed at Rs 308.55, down by 1.67% or Rs 5.25 from its previous closing of Rs 313.80. The open interest of the contract stood at 13099.00 lots.
Agri commodity
Soyabean futures traded marginally higher on NCDEX as speculators enlarged their positions as torrential rains in the parts of Madhya Pradesh caused flooding. However, report of good production, higher edible oil imports and lower export demand for soymeal, capped some gains.
The contract for October delivery was closed at Rs 3463.00, down by 0.29% or Rs 10.00 from its previous closing of Rs 3473.00. The open interest of the contract stood at 56120 lots.
Sebi lens on coriander delivery
Capital markets regulator Sebi is keeping a close watch on the coriander counter on NCDEX, after market rumours surfaced of an entity previously pulled up for cartelisation in pepper, operating the counter.
"There are market concerns of some entities trying to palm off 2-3 year old inferior variety of coriander, purchased lower rates, through exchange accredited warehouses
The exchange has taken measures like re-assaying the goods being brought for deposit, stationing an independent assayer, etc, in light of the complaints and rumours and has also rejected 50% of the goods sought to be deposited. The exchange has sent a report on the action taken to Sebi."
Technical Levels
Gold
Clearly indicated weak below 31200 will take to 31130—31080—31000. It made a low of 30934.
Now what to expect???
Close below 31000 will see further downside panic till 30800---30650 mark.
30600 act as major support in Gold else it could test its resistance level of 31330 and then to 31450---31600 mark again
Trade with levels only
Silver
Too indicated weak below 45400 will take it to 43800—43300.
Downside target intact 42300.
Now what to expect
Support at 43700 and resistance at 44800. Below 43700 it can touch 43100---42800 and then to 42300 mark else could test its resistance level of 44800.
Fresh buying only above 44800.
Crude oil
Resistance at 3220 and Support at 3135
Close above 3220 will take it to 3250--3280 and then to 3320 mark in days to come else could test its support level of 3135
Further downside panic will see only close below 3135 mark
Trade with levels only
Copper
Support at 306 and Resistance at 310---314.50
Looks weak and could test its support. Close below 306 we can see downside panic 302---298 marks else could test its resistance level of 310---314.50 again.
Fresh buying only above 314.50
Soyabean
Support at 3435 and resistance at 3500.
Two consecutive close below 3435 will take it to 3360—3310 mark in days to come else could test its resistance level of 3500.
Further upside rally only above 3500.
Economic Data
Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – 06:00 PM
Unemployment Claims – 06:00 PM
Durable Goods Orders m/m – 06:00 PM
Natural Gas Storage – 08:00 P.M
More will update soon!!
