Dollar/Rupee
Dollar/rupee little changed while the dollar index traded down Thursday after minutes from FOMC July meeting showed general agreement among Fed policymakers that more data was needed before the next rate increase from the central bank.
The dollar index plunged towards 94.36 to its lowest level since Jun 27 after minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed that members of the US central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee were generally upbeat about the economic outlook of the world's largest economy but several agreed on that more data was needed to decide on when to raise interest rates.
Technical, USDINR traded in between 66.85-67.05 small range and settled at 66.8725 compare to previous close of 67.0025. On the EOD chart a breakdown of short term consolidation 66.90-67.25 is yet indicating probability for correction in USDINR, and pair may test 66.80-66.65 very soon.
On the other hand, massive resistance is seen at 67.25 sustain trade above only will expect to test 67.46 and above.
Federal Reserve officials sought to keep their options open at a July policy meeting as they tried to reconcile differences on the economic outlook and when to raise short-term interest rates.
Several wanted to wait until they were more confident inflation would rise to the Fed's 2% objective, while others believed the US is close to a fully recovered job market and a rate increase would soon be warranted, according to minutes of the FOMC's July 26-27 meeting released Wednesday.
Taken together the meeting minutes suggested a rate increase is a live possibility as early as September, but the US central bank won't commit to a move until a stronger economic data can be reached about the outlook for growth, hiring and inflation.
Federal Funds futures for December delivery implied traders saw a 47% chance of a rate hike in December, down from 58% before the release of the Fed minutes, data from CME Group's FedWatch showed.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said Wednesday he's still looking for data to support the single interest rate hike that he believes would be appropriate for some time to come.
EUR/Rupee
Euro extended gains Tuesday tracking weakness in the greenback on fading hopes of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term following a slew of mixed economic data by the world's largest economy.
EURINR has stalled its bearish trend and recovered more than 1% on Tuesday. A Long bullish candle stick formation is indicating for further upside move in EURINR.
Further, pair would need to trade above 75.60 in order to test 75.85-76.00. Stop loss below 75.45
British Pound
Pound snapped three-day fall Tuesday as investors covered their short-positions taking advantage of a slump in pound to a five-week low level while the pair extended gains after the release of the UK's latest inflation data. Pound appreciated against dollar as investors covered their short term positions as pound breached its lowest level since Jul 11 Monday.
After hitting a low of 86.8725, GBPINR recovered towards 87.04 and settled at 86.9175 levels. In near term GBPINR may take momentum upside move following to long bullish candle stick formation on EOD chart.
Buy above 87.50 Target 87.88-88.10. Stop loss below 87.25.
Japanese Yen
The yen held early Asian gains as trade data showed a wider than expected surplus, though imports fell more than expected highlighting fragile demand even as the currency dipped below 100 to the dollar as investors digested the latest FOMC minutes..
JPYINR extended its recent bullish trend and after breaching the resistance 66.20 tested 66.94 before closing at 66.8425. Near term trend expect to remain positive following to the strong support of previous swing trend line and break out of pennant on EOD chart.
Further, pair would need to trade above 66.95 in order to test 67.25-67.50, else any dip towards 66.40-66.25 again attract buying activities.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
5:20am
|
JPY
|
Trade Balance
|
0.14T
|
0.33T
|
Positive
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
Current Account
|
27.3B
|
30.8B
|
Negative
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Retail Sales m/m
|
0.10%
|
-0.90%
|
Positive
|
2:30pm
|
EUR
|
Final CPI y/y
|
0.20%
|
0.20%
|
Neutral
|
EUR
|
Final Core CPI y/y
|
0.90%
|
0.90%
|
Neutral
| |
5:00pm
|
EUR
|
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
|
1.40
|
-2.90
|
Positive
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
269K
|
266K
|
Negative
| |
7:30pm
|
USD
|
CB Leading Index m/m
|
0.30%
|
0.30%
|
Neutral
|
7:35pm
|
USD
|
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
