Dollar/Rupee
Dollar/rupee ended at two-month low Wednesday on likely selling by foreign banks amid weak dollar after dismal US productivity data lowered bets of a possible rate hike by Federal Reserve in the coming months.
Technical, USDINR witnessed 0.26% fall on Wednesday and after breaching the support 66.90 settled at 66.8950 levels.
On the EOD chart a breakdown of short term consolidation 66.90-67.25 is creating probability for correction in USDINR, and pair may test 66.65-66.50 very soon.
On the other hand, massive resistance is seen at 67.25 sustain trade above only will expect to test 67.46 and above.
Dollar index little changed as investors preferred to stay on sidelines. However, investors are cautious ahead of the release of the US retail sales report on Friday.
Also, the US Federal government recorded the biggest monthly budget deficit in July. The deficit so far this budget year is running 10 percent higher than a year ago, the Treasury Department said on Wednesday.
The US deficit came in at $112.8 billion in the month of July, highest since February's $192.6 billion but down from $149.2 billion in July 2015.
US Department of Labour is expected to release the producer price index later this week. Barclays expect final demand PPI to have been flat on the month and to have increased 0.2% on year while the core PPI to increase by 0.2% and 1.2% on year.
EUR-INR Future
Euro traded up for the third straight session Wednesday tracking dollar weakness against other major currencies after lower-than-expected labour productivity data from world's largest economy reduced bets for a near-term rate hike by Federal Reserve.
EURINR has stalled its recent bearish trend and settled at 74.8450 up 0.62%. A long bullish candle stick formation on the EOD chart is yet indicating for momentum upside move in the pair.
Further, immediate support is seen at 74.50 and sustain trade below only will expect to test 74.25-74.00
GBP-INR Future
Pound snapped five-day fall Wednesday as investors covered their short-positions after five days of fall with the pound hitting one-month low Tuesday amid dollar weakness on waning expectations that the US Federal Reserve will hike interest rates this year. Pound appreciated against dollar as investors covered their short positions as pound breached its lowest level since Jul 11 Tuesday
GBPINR has stalled its recent bearish trend and recovered more than half percent. As per the previous day strategy pair failed to test 87.00 and on the downside. On the EOD chart a trend reversal candle stick formation is indicating for momentum upside move in GBPINR.
JPY-INR Future
Yen strengthened against the greenback for the second day after US Labour Department report showed unexpected fall in labour productivity in the world's largest economy. This reduced bets for a near term rate increase by the Federal Reserve.
JPYINR witnessed a gap up opening at 65.955 compare to 65.65 and settled at 66.0950. Near term trend expect to remain positive following to the strong support of previous swing trend line.
On the other hand, further correction is expected to come below 65.25 for the target 64.80-64.55.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
4:31am
|
GBP
|
RICS House Price Balance
|
19.00%
|
16.00%
|
Positive
|
All Day
|
JPY
|
Bank Holiday
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
10th-12th
|
CNY
|
Foreign Direct Investment ytd/y
|
-
|
5.10%
|
-
|
12:15pm
|
EUR
|
French Final CPI m/m
|
-0.40%
|
-0.40%
|
Neutral
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
Italian Trade Balance
|
-
|
5.03B
|
-
|
11th-16th
|
CNY
|
M2 Money Supply y/y
|
11.10%
|
11.80%
|
Negative
|
11th-16th
|
CNY
|
New Loans
|
900B
|
1380B
|
Positive
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
272K
|
269K
|
Negative
|
USD
|
Import Prices m/m
|
-0.20%
|
0.20%
|
Negative
| |
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Mortgage Delinquencies
|
-
|
4.77%
|
-
|
8:00pm
|
USD
|
Natural Gas Storage
|
-
|
-6B
|
-
|
10:31pm
|
USD
|
30-y Bond Auction
|
-
|
2.17|2.5
|
-
|
